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Bonneville Power Administration Hydsim Model Nancy Stephan RMJOC Climate Change Data Set Workshop

Bonneville Power Administration Hydsim Model Nancy Stephan RMJOC Climate Change Data Set Workshop June 9th, 2009. Process for Determining Inventory. HUB Forecasts. CGS. Expected Residual Hydro Load. Streamflows (Historic or ESP). TF Deals. LARIS. HYDSIM. Aurora.

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Bonneville Power Administration Hydsim Model Nancy Stephan RMJOC Climate Change Data Set Workshop

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  1. Bonneville Power Administration Hydsim Model Nancy Stephan RMJOC Climate Change Data Set Workshop June 9th, 2009

  2. Process for Determining Inventory HUB Forecasts CGS Expected Residual Hydro Load Streamflows (Historic or ESP) TF Deals LARIS HYDSIM Aurora Operational Constraints Monthly Streamflows, Initial and Ending Forebay Elevations Project Constraints, BiOp Objectives, Plant Outages, Flood Control, etc… Operational Objectives HOSS Use of Flexibility/Uncertainty Generation and Inventory (HLH, LLH, Super-Peak, etc…) Inventory Spreadsheet

  3. Key Inputs • Loads • Streamflows • Historical (2000 Level Modified streamflows 1929-1998) • ESP (1949-1992, generated via NWSRFS) • Operational Constraints • Hard Project Constraints (flow limits, elevation limits, etc.) • Project Outages • Non-Power Constraints (Flood Control, fish VECCs, Banks Lake adjustment, Fish Operations, BiOp, TSR and Supplemental Operating Agreements, etc.)

  4. Key Inputs (cont.) • Operational Objectives • Uncertain objectives (Chum Protection, summer spill on Lower Snake projects, etc.) • Flexible Objectives (fall operation of Grand Coulee, supplemental operating agreements with Canada, etc.) • Marketing and Load obligations

  5. Hydsim • Month-average results, except for April and August which are split into two periods • Uses a set of user defined priorities to resolve conflicting constraints • Can use either ESP or historical streamflows • Can run in two modes • Refill: initial elevations are independent of previous water year’s ending elevation) • Continuous: initial elevation are set equal to the previous water year’s ending elevation • Multi-step process: • TSR step sets the Canadian base operation • OPER step regulates remainder of the system and adjusts Canadian operation as necessary • Requires a set of pre-/post-processing tools for easily preparing the constraints and for simplifying analysis of the results • Regional generation fed to Aurora for price analysis

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