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In the Beginning

Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UK Joe Twyman Special Projects Director YouGov. In the Beginning. Face-to-Face Research The foundation on which market research was built The ‘Rolls-Royce’ of the industry Mistakes made over 1992 General Election

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In the Beginning

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  1. Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UKJoe TwymanSpecial Projects DirectorYouGov

  2. In the Beginning • Face-to-Face Research • The foundation on which market research was built • The ‘Rolls-Royce’ of the industry • Mistakes made over 1992 General Election • Conservatives poll 8% more of the vote than Labour

  3. What Went Wrong? • Two problem areas identified: • Response rates • Inaccuracy of responses

  4. The Internet – a Brave New World • 22nd April 1993 • World Wide Web Multimedia Graphical User Interfaces

  5. The Internet – a Brave New World • Internet penetration was growing • January 1997 10% penetration • January 2007 63% penetration • Relatively low level of investment required • Barriers to entry crumble Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

  6. False Starts - 1996 • BBC ‘Sports Personality of the Year’ • Justin Fashanu

  7. False Starts - 1999 • BBC ‘Greatest Star of Stage or Screen’ • Amitabh Bachchan

  8. What Had Gone Wrong? • Difficulty in getting respondents to take part • Passive Sampling • Free for all • Quantity not quality • Active Sampling • Targeted approach • Restrictions on those allowed to take part

  9. The UK Internet Population • More men than women • 53% to 47% • More young than old • 63% under 45 • More ‘middle class’ • 66% ABC1 Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

  10. The UK Internet Population • 6% over the age of 65 • Equivalent to over 1,500,000 people • 15% are DEs • Equivalent to over 4,000,000 people • How do you find these people? • How do you convince them to take part? Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

  11. Finding the Right People • Recruitment via internet marketing • Time consuming • Costly • Recruitment through traditional offline recruiters • Hugely expensive • Very inefficient • No guarantee of quality • Strategic partnerships important

  12. Internet Political Surveys • June 2001 British General Election • September 2001 Conservative Leadership Election • May 2002 London Local Election • April 2003 Scottish Parliament Election • June 2004 European Election • May 2005 General Election • October 2005 Conservative Leadership Election • May 2007 Scottish Parliament Election

  13. Internet Research • Internet research is big business • Accounts for 7.9% of total European market research business • Estimated to have been worth £383,000,000 in 2006 • Increasing from 6.4% and £297,000,000 in 2005 • Average UK connection speeds rising from 1.6mbs at December 2005 to 3.8mbs by December 2006 • Misunderstanding, scepticism and even hostility still remain Source: Inside Research (Feb 2007) / Ofcom

  14. Scepticism Remains • ‘We're using the internet as a way in which we can reduce the costs of data collection for our clients while also improving the quality of what we do for them and the quality of the delivery of data through the internet.’ • David Lowden • Chief Executive Officer – TNS • 5th March 2007 • ‘It is still way too early for public opinion polling to go online. Internet polling is like the Far West, with no rules, no sheriff and no reference points.’ • Leendert de Voogd • Managing Director - TNS Opinion • 27th May 2007 Source: TNS Website / International Herald Tribune

  15. Future Direction • Supply is boosted by removal of barriers to entry and low running costs • Cost savings passed to clients who boost demand • Data no longer a ‘fine malt whisky’

  16. Changing Nature of Research • Lancashire Hotpot Causing

  17. Changing Nature of Research • Lancashire Hotpot Causing • Constipation Hotspot

  18. Things Can Still Go Wrong . . . • Downing Street E-Petitions Website ‘An own-goal thought up by a prat’

  19. Things Can Still Go Wrong . . . • 1,811,289 ‘respondents’ • We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Scrap the planned vehicle tracking and road pricing policy. • We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to replace the national anthem with ‘Gold’ by Spandau Ballet. • We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Make Jeremy Clarkson Prime Minister.

  20. Things Can Still Go Wrong . . . • MySpace ‘will give America its first presidential primary winner’ More than 55,000,000 American users of voting age

  21. As for the Long Term Future? • Move to consulting and panel providers as technology becomes commonplace • The internet everywhere including mobile phones

  22. Joe.Twyman@YouGov.com

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