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Greater Nottingham Aligned Core Strategies HOUSING PROVISION

Greater Nottingham Aligned Core Strategies HOUSING PROVISION. 7 th April 2011. What are the Aligned Core Strategies? Why are we revisiting housing provision? Household projections Next steps. Reminder – Greater Nottingham. New Housing Provision figures – why?.

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Greater Nottingham Aligned Core Strategies HOUSING PROVISION

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  1. Greater NottinghamAligned Core StrategiesHOUSING PROVISION 7th April 2011

  2. What are the Aligned Core Strategies? • Why are we revisiting housing provision? • Household projections • Next steps

  3. Reminder – Greater Nottingham

  4. New Housing Provision figures – why?

  5. New Housing Provision figures – why? • Option for Consultation 2010 • Forthcoming abolition of Regional Strategies • Localism/new approach to planning • Government’s New Household Projections

  6. Department ofCommunities & Local Government “…decisions on housing supply will rest with local authorities without the framework of regional numbers and plans.” “Regional Strategies built nothing but resentment – we want to build houses.”

  7. Department ofCommunities & Local Government “Local authorities should continue to collect and use reliable information to justify their housing supply policies and defend them during the LDF examination process. They should do this in line with current policy in PPS3.”

  8. Household Projections • ACS used 2004 based • 2008 based issued November 2010 • Long standing issues • Projections, NOT forecasts • Migration • Short period projecting forward • No market information

  9. 5 Scenarios • Natural change in the existing population • In and out migration in balance • Long term (8 year) migration trend • No increase in jobs • Continuing past house building rates

  10. Ground Rules • Not prejudging future decisions about either the scale of housing provision or its distribution. • Looking at Greater Nottingham, not considering distribution amongst Local Authorities – for later. • Or locations! • Not choosing any one scenario – all help to inform future decisions.

  11. Other assumptions • Unless explicitly mentioned, assumptions in the Government projections are unchanged – eg household size.

  12. Ashfield position • Only Hucknall part included in ACS. • Nottingham “outer” HMA. • Distribution around district a policy decision for later. • Therefore assumed Hucknall provision continues at ACS levels.

  13. Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026

  14. Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population • How many new homes need to provide for the existing population? • Assumes no one moves in and no one moves out.

  15. Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population

  16. Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance • Assumes same numbers move in and move out • But allows for different age structure • In-migrants younger, out migrants older (students – in at 18 out at 21 or 22) • Used in past Structure Plans

  17. Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance

  18. Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend • CLG Projections look back over a 5 year period • Period of high in-migration • What would happen if you look back over a longer period? • 8 years, to iron out peaks and troughs

  19. Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend

  20. Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs • How does level of jobs impact on future housing requirements • Therefore how many homes need to hold the level of jobs at 2008 (base date) constant over the period. • ie How many homes need for the same number of jobs?

  21. Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs

  22. Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates • Past completion rates. • What we’ve delivered in the past continues for plan period. • ie approximately 2,500 homes per annum.

  23. Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates

  24. Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026

  25. Towards Housing Provision • CLG Projections • Housing land availability (SHLAAs) • Housing market factors (SHMAs) • Localism • Environmental capacity • Infrastructure (existing and proposed) • Views of community • Local ambitions – economy etc • New Homes Bonus

  26. Joint Planning Advisory Board - Next Steps • Consider implications • Weigh up other factors and evidence • Come to a Greater Nottingham view • Consider possible distributions • Work up a range of options for consultation • Get political agreement!! • Summer 2011 • Publish revised ACS early 2012

  27. QUESTIONS

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