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The 18 th World Energy Congress Buenos Aires, October 24 th , 2001

Building Technology Bridges to a Sustainable Future: The Potential of Natural Gas as an Energy Protagonist for the 21 st Century. The 18 th World Energy Congress Buenos Aires, October 24 th , 2001. Hiroshi Urano President of the International Gas Union.

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The 18 th World Energy Congress Buenos Aires, October 24 th , 2001

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  1. Building Technology Bridges to a Sustainable Future:The Potential of Natural Gas as an Energy Protagonistfor the 21st Century The 18th World Energy Congress Buenos Aires, October 24th, 2001 Hiroshi Urano President of the International Gas Union

  2. Methane: The Most Hydrogen-Rich Hydrocarbon Methane (CH4) H/C = 4 Oil H/C = 2 Coal H/C = 1 Wood H/C = 0.1 Sources: Marchetti, Nuclear Science and Engineering, 1985

  3. A New Perspective on Methane as a Protagonist Conventional: “Methane as a Supporting Actor” 1) ReservesNatural Gas … 60 yearsOil … 40 years 2) Clean Fuel:Coal 100 / Oil 78 / Methane 59 3) High Efficiency of Utilization New: “Methane as a Protagonist” 1) Abundant Reserves and Resources for Centuries • 3D Seismic Tech. • Deep Drilling Tech. • Dynamic Approach 2) Versatility • Combustion Tech. • Hydrogen Tech. • GTL 3) Carbon Management • CO2 Stabilization

  4. Global Energy Reserves and ResourcesNakicenovic et. al, Global Energy Perspectives, 1998 WEC Consumption Resource base Additional occurrences (Gtoe) Reserves Resource 1850 to 1990 1990 Oil Conventional 90 3.2 150 145 295 Unconventional - - 193 332 525 1,900 Natural gas Conventional 41 1.7 141 279 420 Unconventional - - 192 258 450 400 Hydrates - - - - - 18,700 Coal 125 2.2 606 2,794 3,400 3,000 Total 256 7.0 1,282 3,808 5,090 24,000 17 0.5 57 203 260 150 Uranium in FBRs - - 3,390 12,150 15,540 8,900 Adapted from Nakicenovic et. al, 1998

  5. Versatility in Natural Gas: The “Amphibious” Energy The Age of Hydrogen Technology Fuel cells for Stationary & Mobile applications Methane is uniquely well-adapted for a life in two Ages. The Age of Combustion Technology Advanced Combined Cycle Micro-gasturbines Absorption type chillers

  6. Fuel Cell Development Stationary-type Mobile-type Source: The Japan Gas Association, 2000

  7. Carbon Management 1. To Increase Efficiency 2. Substitution to Lower-Carbon Fuels 3. Carbon Sequestration: To capture, transport and store carbon permanently

  8. Beginning in 2000, IGU embarked on a three-year research program that focuses specifically on ways to deal with Climate Change Issues.Do natural gas and its technologies have the potential for solving the problem of global warning? If so, to what degree? Is it possible to enhance that potential ? If so, what areas should be explored by the world’s gas industries? With these questions in mind, IGU has organized the Global Energy Scenario Project. IGU’s GES Project

  9. Global Energy Scenarios 2100 2000

  10. Advanced Combined Cycle Power Generation Power Station in Yokohama, Japan High Performance Gas Turbine Sources: MHI, TEPCO, 2001

  11. Potential for Reducing CO2 Emissions:Phase-1Methane Technology Options The Latest Available Data CO2 Emissions: 6.1 Gt-C (1996) Electricity Generation Available Technologies Coal Industry Sector Agriculture, Residential, etc. Transport Sector (Road) Oil Electricity Generation Industry Sector Agriculture, Residential, etc. Others Electricity Generation Natural Gas Others Sources: IGU GES Project, 2001

  12. Efficiency Improvement + PEFC Potential for Reducing CO2 Emissions:Phase-2Methane Technology Options The Latest Available Data CO2 Emissions: 6.1 Gt-C (1996) Electricity Generation Available Technologies Coal Industry Sector Agriculture, Residential, etc. Transport Sector (Road) Oil Electricity Generation Industry Sector Agriculture, Residential, etc. Others Electricity Generation Natural Gas Others Sources: IGU GES Project, 2001

  13. Methane Technology Options Phase-3 • Large Scale CO2 Sequestration • Recovery of Methane from Urban Refuse • Sustainable Urban Design • Enhanced Utilization of Renewables and Recycling • Integrated Demand- and Supply-Side Management

  14. Building Technology Bridgesto a Sustainable Energy Future The adoption of a phased portfolio of methane-based technologies: will provide an excellent and tangible measure of risk reduction in the near-term; will provide a valuable timing option – to benefit from new information while retaining the flexibility of having a larger technology menu from which to make future choices; will provide a wide range of positive environmental benefits for today and the future – on a commercially viable basis; will provide real options for employing the vast range of methane-based technologies today and in the future in an incremental and flexible way; and will provide the potential for achieving a “minimum regret” approach to mitigating the risks of global climate change.

  15. “Sustainable Urban System Design Project”- Seven Regional Teams -

  16. Renewable Methane from Refuse and Organic Waste Refuse Organic Waste Sewage Processing Plant Crusher Separator Chemical Solution Methanation Plastics Catalyst Methane Reaction in Supercritical Water (Temp. >374ºC, Press. > 22 MPa) Source: The Japan Gas Association, 2000

  17. Methane Hydrates Occurrences : Beneath the Seafloor : Under Permafrost Sources: Kvenvolden and Lorenson, U.S. Geological Survey, 2000

  18. Economics of Hydrogen Production 45 40 35 30 25 Cost ($/GJ) 20 15 10 5 0 Electrolysis Partial Oxidation of Hydrocarbons Coal Gasification Photovoltaics-based Electrolysis (2000) Photovoltaics-based Electrolysis (2010) Biomass Gasification Wind-based Electrolysis (2010) Wind-based Electrolysis (2000) Steam Methane Reforming (Large Scale) Steam Methane Reforming (Small Scale) Sources: U.S. DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1999

  19. Well-Head Natural Gas Pipeline High Voltage DC Well-Head ACC ACC Market Market CO2 Transportation CO2 Transportation CO2 Sequestration in Aquifer CO2 Sequestration in Aquifer Well-Head Natural Gas Pipeline Hydrogen Pipeline Well-Head Methane Steam Reforming Fuel Cell (CHP) Methane Steam Reforming Fuel Cell (CHP) Market CO2 Transportation Market CO2 Transportation CO2 Sequestration in Aquifer CO2 Sequestration in Aquifer Relative Cost Competitiveness Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Sources: IGU GES Project, 2001

  20. CO2 Transportation CO2 Transportation Relative Cost Competitiveness Combined Cycle Combined Heat and Power CO2 Sequestration CO2 Sequestration CO2 Transportation CO2 Sequestration CO2 Removal CO2 Removal CO2 Sequestration CO2 Transportation Fuel Cell (CHP) CO2 Removal Cost ACC CO2 Removal Methane Steam Reforming Fuel Cell (CHP) ACC Hydrogen Transportation Methane Steam Reforming High Voltage DC Natural Gas Transportation Natural Gas Transportation Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Distance: Gas Well  Market 1,500 km Energy Transformation Point (Gas Well or Market)  Aquifer 1,500 km Sources: IGU GES Project, 2001

  21. Global Energy Reserves and ResourcesNakicenovic et. al, Global Energy Perspectives, 1998 WEC Consumption Resource base Additional occurrences (Gtoe) Reserves Resource 1850 to 1990 1990 Oil Conventional 90 3.2 150 145 295 Unconventional - - 193 332 525 1,900 Natural gas Conventional 41 1.7 141 279 420 Unconventional - - 192 258 450 400 Hydrates - - - - - 18,700 Coal 125 2.2 606 2,794 3,400 3,000 Total 256 7.0 1,282 3,808 5,090 24,000 17 0.5 57 203 260 150 Uranium in FBRs - - 3,390 12,150 15,540 8,900 Adapted from Nakicenovic et. al, 1998

  22. Gas 0 100 200 300 The Relative Yield of Oil and Gas:for Carbonate Source Rocks of the Aquitaine Basin, France 2000 80 Temperature (ºC) Oil Depth (meters) 3000 100 120 4000 140 5000 160 180 6000 400 Hydrocarbons (ml/g-Total Organic Compounds) Sources: Hunt, Petroleum Geochemistry and Geology, 1996 and Le Tran, 1972

  23. Investment Required per Daily Barrel(Excluding North America and Western Europe) $000s 8 1955 1965 1985 6 1985 (5% of reserves) 1975 4 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Capacity (MB/D) Source: M.A.Adelman,“Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum”,1990

  24. CO2 Emissions attributed to Power Generation“The Compound Advantage of Natural Gas” CO2 Emissions attributed to Power Generation CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion(Coal = 100) Thermal Efficiency of Power Generation (%LHV) 100 Note: Coal = 100(kg/MWh) 100 54% 76 78 35% 33% 59 36 Coal Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Coal Oil Natural Gas Coal Oil Gas: State-of-the-art efficiency for ACC in Japan -- Thermal efficiencies applied for coal & oil are present world-wide average.

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