Technology forecasting and planning

1. Technology forecasting and planning Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically

2. Scanning before forecasting & planning

3. Strategic technology planning • Forecasting technology • Analyze and diagnose the environment • Analyze and predict the market and customer trend and change of trend • Analyze the internal organization • Sketch the vision & mission • Re-design the organizational structure and activity • Execute the plan through operations

4. Output of planning • A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue • Decision alternatives—courses of action • Proposed schema—key entities & relations • Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production • Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions • Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D • Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on the commercial design, module manufacturing

5. S-curved technology evolution Future trends Performance time current

6. Continuity/Discontinuity of technology S2 Migration possibility & migration route Performance S1 t1 t2 t3

7. The key attributes in technology forecasting • Performance growth • Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy, compactness • Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm shift or trajectory evolution • Penetration share • Diffusion rate • Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement • Breakthrough possibility & timing • Value cluster

8. Critical technologies • Categories • Material • Advanced manufacturing • Information & communication • Biotech & living science • Aerospace & transportation • Energy & environmental ecology • User dimensions • National critical technologies—long-term basic research • Business/commercial emerging technologies • DOD’s Defense critical technology—specific purposes and outer-space exploration

9. Technology forecasting methods • Surveillance • Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for quick adjustment & adoption • Expert opinions • Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci • Trend analysis • Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces • Modeling • Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical influencers • Scenario analysis • Preview possible events and evolution patterns

10. Japan technology forecasts based on the Delphi method

11. Japan technology forecasts for core technologies

12. Technology road map • Time horizontal evolution • Technological relatedness • Application extension

13. 較少演化路徑 主要演化路徑 e.g., Technology road map of mobile standard evolution CDMA2000 1x IS-95C CDMA2000 1x EV DO CDMA2000 1x EV DV cdmaOne IS-95A IS-95B GPRS EDGE GSM HSCSD PDC WCDMA PDC-P PHS 2G 2.5G 3G

14. e.g., Technology road map of telecom services

15. Technology landscape • Scanning the important technology entities

16. Technology audit model • Technology environment • Technology classification • Analyze the market and customer • Evaluate the innovation process • Analyze the value-added activity • Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition

17. Technology environment • Leadership for technology championship & pioneering research • Phase with the business strategy • Organizational level • Culture of learning, communication and innovation • Staffing system for innovation incentive

18. Technology classification • Product/process technology • Internal/external source, base/core, changes • Back-office technology • Internal/external technologies of administration, supporting, and logistics • Marketing technology • Marketing systems • Integrative communication of product & service

19. Analyze the market and customer • Market requirement • Assess the market growth/capacity/segments • Evaluate the marketing performance • Competitor position • Strength/weakness comparison • Benchmarking

20. Evaluate the innovation process • Idea formation • Intrepreneurship • Entrepreneurship • Technology generation • Technology push—technology inspiration • Market pull—market insight • Idea fulfillment • Time to market, break-even point

21. Analyze the value-added activity • R&D • Team management, investment portfolio, risk management, experience effect, synergy effect • Operation • Production/marketing enhancement • Environmentalism • Investigate user’s behavior of product disposal • Green product & continuous business concept

22. Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition • Acquisition methods and performance • Internal development • External reciprocate collaboration in research/production/marketing • Investment in the stick share • Technology transfer • Transfer procedures • Internal/external staff rotation • Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how • Profit exploitation • Sunk cost analysis • Technology archive • Technology protection • Assess the IPR regime

23. Planning according to TLC Selective divestment Performance Base technology Systemic establish Core technology Selective investment surveillance Phase-in technology mature emerging growing decline time current

24. Integration of business strategy & technology strategy Reviewing Business environment Impacted business Business segment & position Strategic alternative formation Strategy audit Reviewing Technology environment Impacted technology Technology segment & position Strategic choice & resource deployment Strategy execution Strategic control B-tech approach

25. The role of CTO • Forecast technology and analyze the business goals • Develop the corporate technology capability • Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity of technology portfolio • Develop informal and formal alliance network of technology • Execute technology auditing • Technology transfer and protection • As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage of technology and proactive acquisition

26. ASSETS structured thinking about technology • Assess current situation • gap analysis • Specify technology strategy • Expected future • Select technology portfolio • Prioritize the candidates • Execute technology investments • Establish the task force • Transfer results for deployment • Configuration for profit • Secure long-term position • Evaluation and learning for capability

27. Extended readings • Van Wyk, Rias J. (1997), “Strategic Technology Scanning,”Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55, pp.21-38. • Van Wyk, Rias J., G. Haour, and S. G. Japp (1991), “Permanent Magnets: A Technological Analysis,”R&D Management, Vol.21, No. 4, pp.301-308. • Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson (1985), Models for Innovation Diffusion, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage University Press.