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ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE

ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE. Nihan ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert 7 November 2011 Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS). Latest Developments in Turkish Economy -I.

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ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE

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  1. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE Nihan ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert 7 November 2011 Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS)

  2. Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-I • Turkish economy registered the most rapid economic growth in Europe for 2010 and for the first half of 2011. • While total domestic demand increased by 13.4 % in 2010, this rate was 16.5 % for the 1st quarter of 2011 and 13.6 % for the 2nd quarter of 2011. • Industrial production index increased by a fairly high proportion of 13.1 % in 2010. In addition, it has also remarkable increase rates in the first eight months of 2011. • Unemployment rate has risen up to 16.1 % in February 2009 during global crises period. It dropped towards 11.9 % in 2010 because of the rapid economic recovery and production increase. • Whereas Turkish merchandise exports and imports were 113.9 bn dollars and 185.5 bn dollars in 2010 respectively, exports were realized by 88.7 bn dollars and imports were realized by 160.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  3. Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-II • Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7.66 % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year. And, it also increased by 3.27 % compared with the previous month of this year. • While Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 12.58 % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year, the monthly increase in PPI was realised by 1.60 %. • When current account deficit was realised by 47.7 bn dollars in 2010, it was realised by 54.3 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011. • 9.3 bn dollars foreign direct investment entered into Turkey in 2010. This value was realised by 10.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  4. Foreign Trade and GDP (%) Source: TURKSTAT • There is a similarity between GDP growth and the percentage changes of export and import since 2002. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  5. Foreign Trade Developments 2009 - 2010 / Jan.-Aug. 2011 Source: Turkstat In the period of January-August 2011 compared with the same month of 2010, • Exports and imports increased by 21.9 % and 39.3 % respectively. • Trade deficit reached to 71.4 billion dollars, rising by 69.5 %. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  6. Monthly Developments of Exports and Imports Source: Turkstat • Exports; • Gradual increase since May 2009. • Imports; • Gradual increase in parallel with exports. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  7. Foreign Trade Indices-Methodology • Produced by Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) • Used by governmental institutions, private sector and all universities in Turkey • Calculated indices: * Unit value index • * Volume index • * Terms of trade index • * Value index • Calculated by Eurostat and UN concepts and methods • Issued by classifications of ISIC Rev.3, BEC, SITC, CPA • Released period: Monthly, quarterly, yearly • Method: Unit value indices – Fisher formula • Volume indices – The ratio of the value indices to the fisher • unit value indices • Terms of trade indices – The ratio of the export unit value index to • the import value index • Valuation: Unit value indices are calculated by US Dollars and Turkish Lira Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  8. Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-I Source: Turkstat • Export volume index is higher than export unit value index except the years of 2002, 2004 and 2008 in Turkey . Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  9. Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-II Source: Turkstat • In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, • Export unit value index is increased by 15.9 % • The export unit value index for agriculture and forestry, fishery, mining, manufacturing increased by 10.5 %, 19.3%, 10%, 16.3%, respectively. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  10. Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-III Source: Turkstat • In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, • Export volume index is increased by 14.1 % • While the export volume index for fishing, manufacturing increased by 11.5 %, 15.6 %, respectively, the index for agriculture and forestry decreased by 14.4 %. The index for mining remained unchanged. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  11. Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-I Source: Turkstat • Import volume index is higher than import unit value index except the years of 2002 and 2008 in Turkey. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  12. Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-II Source: Turkstat • InAugust 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, • Import unit value index is increased by 20.5 % • The import unit value index for agriculture and forestry, mining, manufacturing increased by 42.4 %, 28.7 %, 17.3 %, respectively Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  13. Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-III Source: Turkstat • In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, • Import volume index is increased by 4.9 % • While the import volume index for agriculture and forestry and mining decreased by 14.9 %, 6.2 %, respectively, the index for manufacturing increased by 8.6 % Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  14. Correlation Between Import, Export and Manufacturing Industry Source: Turkstat • In January 2008-August 2011, • There is 90 % correlation between manufacturing industry production and import volume indices • There is 77 % correlation between manufacturing industry production and export volume indices Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  15. Unit Value Indices of Exports, Imports & Terms of Trade Source: Turkstat • In Turkey import prices are higher than export prices in general. According to the higher import prices, terms of trade are fixed down the value of 100. As a result, much more amount of goods should be exported for a unit of imports. Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  16. Export Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (ISIC) ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification 2003=100 Source:Turkstat Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  17. Import Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (BEC) BEC: Broad Economic Categories 2003=100 Source: Turkstat Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment

  18. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE NİHAN ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy General Directorate of Economic Research and Assessment odabasin@ekonomi.gov.tr

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