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BSRIA UPDATE Structured Cabling Market, Data Centers,IIMS and Potential New Studies

BSRIA UPDATE Structured Cabling Market, Data Centers,IIMS and Potential New Studies. January 2009. Agenda. Global trends in structured cabling US/UK Data Center Studies BSRIA Consultancy IIMS Current studies and plans for 2009/2010.

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BSRIA UPDATE Structured Cabling Market, Data Centers,IIMS and Potential New Studies

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  1. BSRIA UPDATEStructured Cabling Market, Data Centers,IIMS and Potential New Studies January 2009

  2. Agenda • Global trends in structured cabling • US/UK Data Center Studies • BSRIA Consultancy • IIMS • Current studies and plans for 2009/2010

  3. BSRIA Worldwide Market IntelligenceI.T. Networks & Associated Technologies • Small team covering up to 40 countries • Offices in the UK, China, France & Germany • Special topic reports on technologies impacting the SCS market • Close tracking of individual country economies and construction activity • Face-to-face and telephone interviews with key suppliers, distributors and SIs/VARs in each country

  4. EUROPE • GERMANY • UK • FRANCE • NETHERLANDS • ITALY • SPAIN • SWITZERLAND • BELGIUM • AUSTRIA • SWEDEN • NORWAY • FINLAND • DENMARK • PORTUGAL • POLAND • RUSSIA • HUNGARY • UKRAINE • CZECH REPUBLIC • GREECE • IRELAND • AMERICAS • USA • CANADA • BRAZIL • ARGENTINA • MEXICO • CHILE Countries Covered Worldwide • ASIA PACIFIC • CHINA • AUSTRALIA • SOUTH KOREA • JAPAN • INDIA • HONG KONG • ASEAN • SINGAPORE • VIETNAM ~95% of the global structured cabling market

  5. Market Size Structured Cabling and Key Trends

  6. Global Structured Cabling Market, 2007/2008by Product Type Singlemode fibre cable 1.8% Fibre connectivity 3.7% Multimode fibre cable 11.1% Copper cable 47.2% Copper connectivity 36.2% US$ 4.9 billion Source: BSRIA

  7. Global Structured Cabling Market, 2003 – 2010 Est. $4.97 bill Rev. $4.95 bill increase 0.5-1% Est. Flat Rev. Decrease 4-5% US$ mill

  8. Top 10 Countries for Structured Cabling, 2007 US$ mill Source: BSRIA

  9. Growth Forecast 2007 - 2010 Credit crisis + Negative growth Will have it's impact Source: BSRIA

  10. Market Size vs. Market Growth Matrix 2007 - 08 Latin America Russia United Kingdom France Australia Middle East India China Germany Italy USA High 30% Market Growth Rate 2007-08 0% -30% High Market Size 2008 Low $150 Million $1700 Million

  11. Growth – High 10%+ India China Russia Brazil/Mexico Argentina Flat Spain France 2008 – Preliminary Results Growth – Medium • Australia • Germany • Middle East • Eastern Europe Decline • US • UK • Italy Source: BSRIA

  12. Growth India (10-15%) China (8-10%) Decline UK (10-15%) US Russia (27%) Spain (~20%) Italy (5-10%) France (3-5%) Germany (1-3%) Austria (2–3%) 2009 – Preliminary Forecast Flat to minor growth • Latin America • Middle East • Australia Source: BSRIA

  13. Global Trends 2008/9 • First half of 2008 – “business as usual” • Business slowed down August – October • Drastic decrease in demand in November/December • 4thQ (3rdQ) Projects postponed or cancelled • 1stQ 2009: End-user confidence down, slow market - some carry-over • Private investment significantly down • Government investment up (schools, universities, infra-structure, healthcare, central and local authorities etc.)

  14. Price Developments • Prices remained stable year-on-year from June 2006 – 4Q of 2008 • Some countries had price increases July/August 2008 • Massive drop in copper material prices Autumn 08 (back to 2005 level), but no general price reduction • Few suppliers reduced prices Nov/Dec 2008, but most suppliers choose to offer further project discount (target/localised) • Exceptions - China: pressure from Oct 2008 - Russia: price erosion started! Source: BSRIA

  15. Price Comparison: A Box (100 ft) UTP Cat 5e, PVC Cable Source: BSRIA

  16. Cat 6 penetration German speaking countries (80-95%) Middle East (75-95%) France,Netherlands (65%) Cat 6A penetration High uptake of Cat 7 cables with shielded Cat 6 or Cat 6A connectivity Low penetration of Cat 6A 4 - 5% High Penetration of Cat 6 2008 est. by volume Source: BSRIA

  17. Cat 6A penetration 1% 1% – 3% Only very few projects 11% ~4% Cat 5e sales Japan 65–70% Latin Americas (65-70%) China 57% Russia 50% and increasing in 2009 US 51-52% Cat 5e Sales Continue to be High 2008 est. by volume Cat 5e (35% - 45%), Cat 6 (50%- 60%) & Cat 6A (2% - 5%) • UK, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Italy, India, Australia Source: BSRIA

  18. China • China been spending 40% of GDP on business investments => excess capacity • Exports have fallen since Nov 08 – Can internal demand be stimulated to replace it? • Pressure on cable prices when the copper material price dropped (from Oct 08). Increased (15%) beginning of 2008 • Slowed down Q4 2008 and the trend continues in 2009 • Data centre only very small segment (3 – 5%) • Ningbo Ship, LTK, Potevio (Putian), Orient Daikin, Sunf Pu, Wonderful Wire are increasing in importance in China

  19. Russia – a Developing Market • 3% of the global market (2008) • Massive growth in 2006, 2007 and 2008 fuelled by construction and material price increases • Dec 2008/Q1 2009 – prices expected to fall significantly • Consumer confidence down. Projects on hold or cancelled. Volume to decline 20% in 2009 • Focus on cost savings (Cat, brand, size) • Growth expected in 2010 and 2011

  20. U.K. & U.S.Data Center Studies

  21. US Data Centre and LAN Market • LAN $1.65 bill • DC $360 mill • DC 18% of total • Fiber cable problematic in DC report - pre-term - link lengths - value of links Source: BSRIA

  22. Subjects Covered by Data Center End-User Studies • Cabling market size • Cabling type and location • Cable jacket type • Brands • 10G cable choice • 40G and 100G - current & plans • Switch port utilisation • Pre-terminated cable • Fiber connectivity • Replacement rates • Network impact from blade servers & virtualization • Most important criteria in selection of system and supplier

  23. Size of Data Centres in the Studies No. Respondents 250 US; 120 UK Source: BSRIA

  24. Plans to Install 10G Copper Cablingin the Near Future in the Data Centre 10G copper cabling options listed: • Cat 6 shielded (F/UTP) • Cat 6A unshielded or shielded • Cat 7 • Cat 7A • CX4 (10GbE) cable No. Respondents 120 Source: BSRIA

  25. Most Likely Choice for Future Data Center 10G Copper Cabling Solution - U.K. No. Respondents 120

  26. Would Like to Install 10G Active Equipment for Copper Cabling U.K. 2008 U.S. 2007 No. Respondents 180

  27. Plans for All Speeds in the Data Center end 2009

  28. The Copper-Fiber Split in the Data Center Network - U.K.As at end 2007 and Planned for end 2008 No. Respondents 120

  29. How Often Replace Copper & Fiber Cabling in the Data Center Network - U.K. 2008 By No. Respondents No. Respondents 100

  30. How Often Replace Equipment in the Data Center Network - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008 By Percent Respondents No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120

  31. 40G in the Data Center Network by Layer – U.K. 2008 & 2010 Current 40G by Layer 40G Plans No. Respondents 77 & 120 Note: The vertical scales are the same on this slide.

  32. 40G and 100G by Layer in the Data Center - U.K. 2008 & 2010 No. Respondents 77

  33. Current Fiber Cabling Installed in the Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008 No. Respondents: U.S. 239; U.K. 110

  34. Preference for End-to-End Systems in the Data Center - by Size - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008 % Resps No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120

  35. Type of Protocol Used in the Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008 No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120

  36. Future Expansion Plans in the Next 5 Years Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008 No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120

  37. Most Important Criteria When Selecting a Location For the Data Center - U.K. 2008 New open question No. Respondents 114

  38. The Factor that will have the Largest Impact on the Data Center Cabling Infrastructure in the Future Open question No. Respondents UK 115; US 201

  39. BSRIA Consultancy- A Brief Introduction

  40. Methodology PHASE 1 PHASE 2 Market Analysis - WMI Recommendations (including financial) - BMC Internal Analysis - BMC

  41. SEGMENTATION • FORECASTS Management Consultancy Market Research • PRICING • DISTRIBUTION & COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE

  42. Analysis of Client’s Internal Data • Financial data Management Consultancy Market Research • Commercial data • Comparison Vs. market

  43. Detailed Recommendations & Action Plans + Financial Data • SALES TARGET SETTING • INVESTMENT ESTIMATES Management Consultancy Market Research • CASH FLOW FORECAST • ACTION PLANS

  44. What BSRIA Consultancy Offers Commercial due diligence • In our commercial due diligence we take into account the latest news and trends of the industry. This enables us to contrast the company strategy with the current market • This document also contributes to gain visibility of new opportunities and risks Business plan evaluation • The business plan assessment supplies expert opinion about the viability of the company in strategic and commercial terms • Moreover, it includes recommendations about the key aspects, supported with calculations and logical arguments Market research • This document integrates external market factors as well as strategic positioning and the internal situation of the client. It is structured in dynamic and predictive models considering different scenarios, facilitating the decision making process Assessment/Creation of Vendor's book • The vendor’s book has the competitive advantage of integrating BSRIA experience in the industry • The deliverable integrates the financial information with information on the marketplace and the company’s strategy. The commercial language used is clear and concise.

  45. Examples of Completed Projects

  46. Old Bracknell Lane West Bracknell Berkshire RG12 7 AH United Kingdom +44 (0) 1344 465600 c/ Juan Ramón Jiménez 9, 1º Madrid 28036 Spain +34 91 185 42 37

  47. Intelligent Infrastructure Management Systems

  48. Intelligent Infrastructure Management Systems (IIMS) No-IIMS IIMS

  49. Global Sales of IIMS, 2005 - 2007

  50. IIMS Sales by Region, 2005 - 2007

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