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Sirtris Pharmaceuticals: Living healthier, longer

John Burr Ph.D. Sirtris Pharmaceuticals: Living healthier, longer. Warm-up Question 1. 1. According to www.wineinstitute.org , which of the following countries has the highest wine consumption per capita in 2008? A. Switzerland B. United States C. Spain D. United Kingdom.

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Sirtris Pharmaceuticals: Living healthier, longer

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  1. John Burr Ph.D. Sirtris Pharmaceuticals: Living healthier, longer

  2. Warm-up Question 1 1. According to www.wineinstitute.org, which of the following countries has the highest wine consumption per capita in 2008? A. Switzerland B. United States C. Spain D. United Kingdom

  3. Warm-up Question 1 1. According to www.wineinstitute.org, which of the following countries has the highest wine consumption per capita in 2008? A. Switzerland B. United States C. Spain D. United Kingdom

  4. Warm-up Question 2 2. Borders Bookstore derived its name from: A. The first store was built in El Paso, Texas, just two miles from the Mexican border. B. Tom and Louis Borders, brothers from Ann Arbor, Michigan C. Borders was originally a place to order books, not buy them...hence the name Book Orders D. Nothing in particular; the founders just thought it sounded interesting

  5. Warm-up Question 2 2. Borders Bookstore derived its name from: A. The first store was built in El Paso, Texas, just two miles from the Mexican border. B. Tom and Louis Borders, brothers from Ann Arbor, Michigan C. Borders was originally a place to order books, not buy them...hence the name Book Orders D. Nothing in particular; the founders just thought it sounded interesting

  6. Warm-up Question 3 3. The common, but fallacious story behind the creation of eBay is that Pierre Omidyar's wife had a large PEZ candy dispenser collection, and that he created eBay in 1995 to help her acquire even more containers. Urban myth? Maybe so, but what was the domain name that Pierre originally wanted to use? • Collectible.com • Shop24.com • BuyItHere.com • EchoBay.com

  7. Warm-up Question 3 3. The common, but fallacious story behind the creation of eBay is that Pierre Omidyar's wife had a large PEZ candy dispenser collection, and that he created eBay in 1995 to help her acquire even more containers. Urban myth? Maybe so, but what was the domain name that Pierre originally wanted to use? • Collectible.com • Shop24.com • BuyItHere.com • EchoBay.com

  8. Warm-up Question 4 4. What popular clothing company took its name from a derogatory term often applied to Central American countries? • Coconut Country • Sugar Shack • Mango Mansion • Banana Republic

  9. Warm-up Question 4 4. What popular clothing company took its name from a derogatory term often applied to Central American countries? • Coconut Country • Sugar Shack • Mango Mansion • Banana Republic

  10. CBS News 60 minutes:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWkRN-0KjeMhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGD0rm2By2A&feature=related

  11. Sirtris Study Questions • Describe the FDA approval process of a new drug application. • What are the three major decisions facing the company at the time of the case? • At the time Westphal joined Sirtris, what is your assessment of the odds that the company will ever generate substantial revenues? If you were Westphal, would you have left Polaris for Sirtris? • Should Sirtris launch SRT501 nutraceutical business? Why or why not?  • Should Sirtris do the deal with the pharmaceutical company? Why or why not? If you recommend a deal, which equity stake (20% or 51%) would you prefer?

  12. Sirtris Study Question 1 • Describe the FDA approval process of a new drug application.

  13. Sirtris Study Question 4 4. Should Sirtris launch SRT501 nutraceutical business? Why or why not?  Fact: Nearly two-thirds of the American population takes at least one type of nutraceutical health product. Fact: The use of nutraceuticals, as an attempt to accomplish desirable therapeutic outcomes with reduced side effects, as compared with other therapeutic agents, has met with great monetary success.

  14. Sirtris Study Question 5 Should Sirtris do the deal with the pharmaceutical company? Why or why not? If you recommend a deal, which equity stake (20% or 51%) would you prefer?

  15. Update • Sirtris went public at $10/share in May 2007, raising > $60 million. • In April 2008, agreed to be acquired by GSK in a $720 million deal (purchased at $22.50/share when it was trading at $12/share, an 80% premium). • Westphal stayed on to lead merger integration effort. “This is likely to be the most important thing I do in my life.” His stock options and restricted stock vested out to 2011. • A small number of scientists left to launch other start-ups. • Sirtris remained a standalone division inside GSK.

  16. GSK Abnormal Returns around Acquisition Date

  17. GSK Abnormal Returns around Acquisition Date

  18. Lesson 1 In some business models: Creating value is about increasing Expected Value, not generating near-term revenue and profits

  19. Biotech – What’s it worth!

  20. Step-downs in risk and funding

  21. Time zero payoff distribution E(Exit Value) = .9999 * Lose All + .0001 * Make Billions 99.99% Time zero payoff distribution 0.01% Lose All Make Billions

  22. After Christoph joins & science advances E(Exit Value) = .95 * Lose All + .05 * Make Billions 95%% 5% Lose All Make Billions

  23. Q4: Entering Nutraceuticals business E(Exit Value) = .95 * DCF Nutraceuticals + .05 * Make Billions?? 95% 95% 5% ?? Lose All Make Billions

  24. Q5: Adding pharmaceutical deal E(Exit Value) = ?? * Lose All + ?? * (Make Billions / 2) 95%% ?? 5% Lose All Make Billions

  25. Lesson 2 Understanding motives for diversification

  26. Horizontal Scope Decision In what businesses? SPILLOVERS ACROSS BUSINESS UNITS IF: ECONOMIES OF SCOPE CROSS-SELLING BENEFITS INTERNAL MARKETS DIVERSIFY RISK

  27. Diversify Risk • Generally, not a good reason • Corporate investors can diversify more efficiently themselves • Makes sense if • Corporation can diversify risk better than external market • In “new” markets, there may not be available risk hedging alternatives for investors, so corporations have to diversify for them.

  28. Lesson 3 Important to think about the incentive structures & Pros and cons of strategic partnerships, especially from the perspective of the smaller partner

  29. Big Pharma Table: Number of New Drugs Released by Top Ten Pharmaceutical Companies, listed in order of market capitalization, from 1998 to 2002 Pharmaceutical company New Drugs • Pfizer 5 • Johnson & Johnson 0 • Merck 7 • GlaxoSmithKline 6 • Novartis 8 • Amgen 0 • Eli Lilly & Co. 1 • AstraZeneca 2 • Abbot Laboratories 3 • Wyeth 4 Source: Bryan Bergeron & Paul Chan, BIOTECH INDUSTRY: A GLOBAL, ECONOMIC, AND FINANCING OVERVIEW 58 (2004).

  30. Small Biotech • Source of Capital • Validation to partners, investors • Experienced teams to go through the FDA approval process • Tension: Different time frames under which pharmaceutical and biotech companies operate? • Tension: Competition?

  31. Feb. 10 Noodles & Company • Readings: the case and the assigned article “Franchising” • Study Questions for Case: Noodles & Co. • What are the challenges faced by Noodles at the time of the case? • What’s your evaluation of Noodles’ performance? Compare it to industry competitors such as Panera, Starbucks, and Chipotle. • What are the G&A/sales ratios of Noodles (2000-2002)? Use numbers from Exhibits to calculate. High or low compared with industry average? • Do you recommend Noodles & Company expand by franchising or company-owned stores? What are the quantitative and qualitative implications of each alternative? • What issues would you recommend Kennedy include in his presentation to the board?

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