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Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

Climate change mitigation in the context of development HARALD WINKLER. INAUGURAL LECTURE 17 August 2011. Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town. Concentration of Greenhouse gases. Source: SAWS Annual Report 08/09

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Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

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  1. Climate change mitigation in the context of development HARALD WINKLER INAUGURAL LECTURE 17 August 2011 Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

  2. Concentration of Greenhouse gases Source: SAWS Annual Report 08/09 Data from Global Atmosphere Watch at SA Weather Service, at Cape Point

  3. Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

  4. Climate change impacts on people and ecosystems

  5. Source: Left: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001; Right: Smith et al 2009 PNAS

  6. Mitigation is urgent. Time to bend the curve is short Source: Meinshausen, 2005

  7. …. after they have exhausted all other possibilities. Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing Sir Winston Churchill

  8. World by historical cumulative fossil fuel emissions 1900-1999compared to Peters equal area projection

  9. Pledges add up to a 3.2ºC world (or so) Source: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/ Climate Analytics, Ecofys, PIK

  10. Source: Sustainable Energy Africa

  11. Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census)Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census) Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris

  12. Three broad areas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions FUEL MIX ENERGY EFFICIENCY ECONOMICSTRUCTURE Transformation - power plants - refineries - synthetic fuel End use - tons steel / GJ - passengerkmllitre - lumens/Watt renew- ables X National emissions X = 1O oil 3O 2O gas coal Source: Winkler 2009 adapted from R Spalding-Fecher, EDRC

  13. The minerals-energy complex Anglo Exxaro Xstrata ArcelorMittal BHP-Billiton Lonmin PROFIT Coal input CTL + chemicals 71 Mt/yr Aluminium Iron and steel Ferrochrome Manganese Gold Coal Platinum Minerals-sands Policy processes • IRP • Carbon tax • Planning Commission Sasol Eskom Emissions of 230 Mt/yr Cheap electricity PROFIT Source: Jesse Burton, ERC

  14. Use less energy, more efficiently, mostly renewables

  15. Source: SBT 2007, LTMS Scenario Building Team, 2007, Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios: Strategic Options for South Africa

  16. Peak 550 Plateau Decline Source: RSA 2008 Government’s vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Presentation by the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism on the July Cabinet lekgotla

  17. Source: Andrew Marquard, ERC

  18. Growth … of world population Data source: US census, lower estimates

  19. Growth … of China’s GDP Source: Lawrence & Williamson, 2011

  20. Growth … of US energy consumption US energy consumption by energy resource 1635-2000 (in Quadrillion Btu) Source: US Energy Information Administration

  21. Growth … of money Growth of R1000 over 100 years at 15% per year

  22. The commitment to visionary politics that got us to where we are now is gone. It’s gone. Let’s not kid ourselves. We have to wake up now and re-dream. Njabulo Ndebele, ‘Renewing Citizenship’

  23. We inhabit a climate of trust as we inhabit an atmosphere and notice it as we notice air, only when it becomes scarce and polluted. Annette Baier 1986 THANK YOU www.erc.uct.ac.za

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