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Scotland’s Identity

Scotland’s Identity. John Curtice Strathclyde University/ NatCen. Ways of Asking. Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice) Moreno D ifferent I dentities S eparately. Forced Choice National Identity.

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Scotland’s Identity

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  1. Scotland’s Identity John Curtice Strathclyde University/NatCen

  2. Ways of Asking • Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice) • Moreno • Different Identities Separately

  3. Forced Choice National Identity Sources: 74-97 Scottish Election Study; 99-13 Scottish Social Attitudes

  4. A (Slight) Age Difference

  5. Trends in Moreno National Identity

  6. But No Evidence of More Recent Change Source: Ipsos MORI

  7. Looking at the Two Identities Separately Source: SSA 2012

  8. Dependent Variables • Referendum Vote Intention (after squeeze) • Independence (in/out Europe) vs. Devolution (with/without tax) vs. No Parliament • SP take all decisions vs. All bar foreign vs. All domestic bar tax & welfare vs. No decisions

  9. Scottish Identity Far From Sufficient

  10. But Is (Almost) Necessary

  11. More Recent Confirmation Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

  12. It’s Britishness That Matters More!

  13. Identity Not as Powerful as The Economy

  14. Only (Really) Matters When Convinced The Idea is Practical

  15. More Devolution Helps Satisfy The Duallists (But Also Has Cross-Appeal)

  16. Summary • Referendum would not be happening without the existence of a distinct sense of national identity. • But a strong Scottish - or more importantly a weak British identity - is not a sufficient condition for supporting independence. • People need to be convinced of practical efficacy of independence if they are to be persuaded to let go of their Britishness. (More devolution may be thought sufficient). • Onset of referendum may have rekindled some people’s sense of being British.

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