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Full STEAM ahead for Operational Research and Design?

OR 58 Annual Conference Portsmouth September 2016. Full STEAM ahead for Operational Research and Design?. Geoff Royston Alexander Komashie (Independent) (Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge). Overview. Introduction

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Full STEAM ahead for Operational Research and Design?

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  1. OR 58 Annual Conference Portsmouth September 2016 Full STEAM ahead for Operational Research and Design? Geoff Royston Alexander Komashie (Independent)(Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge)

  2. Overview • Introduction • What is design? • Design in O.R. and O.R. in design • What skills in design might be useful to operational researchers? • Some encouraging signs of development of design skills in O.R. • Implications for research, practice, and education & training • STEM and STEAM • The benefits of giving more prominence to design in O.R. • Some concluding thoughts

  3. Introduction

  4. Background In the last two or three years there have been some interesting developments in the area of Operational Research and Design: • An overview paper in JORS* • Two seminarsheld jointly by the OR Society and the Design Society • The launch of an OR Society Special Interest Group on Public Policy Design • A workshop at EURO2015 in Glasgow * O’Keefe R, Design Science, the design of systems and Operational Research: back to the future?, J Operational Research Society, 2014, 65, 673- 684.

  5. Aim of this presentation • These are all positive steps • However, there does not yet seem to have been more general development in the area; in particular: • no obvious growth of research on issues of design and O.R. • no general recognition that O.R. practice needs to highlight its actual and potential contribution to design problems • no obvious impact on education and training to reflect the importance of design concepts and skills in O.R. • This presentation therefore aims to review the position and makes some suggestions about further steps that could be taken.

  6. What is design?

  7. Design is not just about physical objects! • The concept of design in modern use includes abstract artifacts such as software, systems or strategies • and extends from working on changes in physical space to working on changes over time

  8. Design is not decoration! "I’ve been amazed at how often those outside the discipline of design assume that what designers do is decoration. Good design is problem solving.”Jeffery Veen

  9. Design involves • conceiving and assessing what can be a vast range of alternatives • a holistic approach (because many design problems cannot be neatly subdivided into independent sub-problems) • much iteration to find feasible and desirable solutions (because design, especially when done together with clients, often brings about changes in the perception of what needs to be designed)

  10. Key attributes of “design thinking” • Expansion of boundaries of problem definition and of solutions • Deep observation of users to discover their needs • Empathetic, co-creative, user-driven approach • Commitment to prototyping and real-world experiments * Based on J Liedtka , A King and K Bennett, Solving Problems with Design Thinking, Columbia Business School, 2013.

  11. “Design thinking” and “wicked” problems • “Design thinking” is especially useful when addressing “wicked” problems, where not only the solution but even the problem is initially unclear. • Much of the problem solving activity comprises problem definition and problem shaping.

  12. Convergent and divergentthinking is involved Engaging both sides of the brain!

  13. The Double Diamond* approach to design has two divergent/convergent stages * Developed by the UK Design Council circa 2006

  14. www.designcouncil.org.uk

  15. * Developed by the UK Design Council circa 2006

  16. Design in O.R.

  17. A puzzle Why is knowledge and skill in design not regarded as afoundation stone for operational research?

  18. Two sorts of sciences • Explanatory sciences e.g. physics, sociology- aim at developing knowledge to understand the world • Improvement sciences e.g. medicine and engineering - aim at developing knowledge to change the world

  19. O.R. is an improvement science Improving systems requires analysisandsynthesis

  20. O.R. is typically characterised as about informing management decisions OK, but decision analysis is not the only fruit.

  21. O.R. also involves search and synthesis DECISION ANALYSIS Simple choice A or B? Might there also be a C or D? OPTION SEARCH How do A (or B, C, or D) and X , Y and Z fit together in space or time? SOLUTION SYNTHESIS

  22. Search and synthesisare key tasks of design.

  23. Designing is a key part of the work of change agents “ Everyone designs who devises courses of action aimed at changing existing situations into preferred ones.”Herbert Simon .

  24. Simon and The Sciences of the Artificial The decision scientist and Nobel laureate Herbert Simon called for “a science of design” focusing on topics such as the representation of design problems and the search for alternatives. His seminal book “The  Sciences of the Artificial” included many of the then new methods of operational research and artificial intelligence.

  25. Ackoff and Idealised Design The O.R. pioneer Russ Ackoff became increasingly concerned about issues of system design – and the lack of prominence that O.R. typically gave to them. In the late 1970s one of his main calls was for O.R. to involve “designing a desirable future” and his explicit challenge to O.R. professionals was “to improve our methods of design and invention”.

  26. Prestigious O.R. achievements typicallyinvolve system design, butrarely highlight this ORS President’s Medal INFORMS Edelman Award 2008 Optimising the Department for Work and Pensions' estate 2010 A model future for the UK’s nuclear legacy 2011 Air traffic control, business regulation and CO2 emission 2013 Optimising the Retail Network for New Zealand Post 2010 Indeval Develops a New Operating and Settlement System 2012 Supply Chain Wide Optimization at TNT Express 2015 Analytical tools to improve design, development and evaluation of soybean crops

  27. O.R. in Design?

  28. There is an interesting reciprocal history of O.R. in the design world However, designers found early (1960’s) attempts to use classical O.R. tools – as in the book by Jones – overly technocratic and therefore unsuccessful. (Jones later agreed!) (see Jones J C (1977). How my thoughts about design methods have changed during the years. Design Methods and Theories: Journal of DMG and DRS 11 (1).

  29. The systems spectrum of engineering design Increasing need for O.R.

  30. O.R. in design of products and system components System Component Design - Parts and Products • Designers have tools for developing and testing parts and products without the need for O.R. • These tools include models, simulations and optimization techniques.

  31. O.R. in design of large scale machines and structures System Design – Machines and Structures • Large scale machines and structures may also be designed using engineering methods for modelling, simulating and optimizing. • But the operation of such systems may benefit from some O.R.

  32. O.R. in design of complex processes and services System Design – Processes and Services • Designing complex processes and services is always a system problem – and often a “wicked” one. • This requires significant O.R. input for exploring the problem and evaluating alternative solutions.

  33. What design skills might be useful to operational researchers?

  34. Design thinkers employ skills of * • Innovation/abduction • Human focus/empathy • Holistic/system thinking • Visual communication • Teamworking/generalist *Adapted from Owen, Charles. 2007. “Design Thinking: Notes on ins nature and Use”. Design Research Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 16-27

  35. Innovation/abduction

  36. Abduction • Traditional analysis involves deduction and induction • Innovative design cannot be derived from logical analysis of inputs alone, it involves abduction, i.e. a creative jump, wondering what could be

  37. Creative thinking is needed for design thinking ! Creativity is just connecting things. Steve Jobs Wired 1995

  38. There are lots of tools and techniques for supporting creative thinking in O.R. See e.g. Vidal R V V (2005). Creativity for Operational Researchers. Investigação Operacional (Portugal), 25, 1-24.

  39. Scenario analysis for futures thinking

  40. Holistic/system thinking

  41. Systems thinking is needed for design thinking ! Traditional thinking Systems thinking Static –focus on particular events Dynamic– focus on patterns of behaviour over time Forest -focus on context Tree-by-tree –focus on details Loop - focus on interactions between causes and events Linear–focus on uni-directional causes Adapted from Richmond B. “The ‘thinking’ in systems thinking: seven essential skills.”Pegasus Communications 2000.

  42. Visual communication

  43. Edward Tufte’s seminal books

  44. A simple graphic told the story of Napoleon’s disastrous Russian campaign

  45. A more modern example – simple graphics are the best way to convey understanding of risks From http://understandinguncertainty.org/ 49

  46. Teamworking/generalist

  47. Source: www.marshmallowchallenge.com

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