Future Technology Options for Sustainable Electricity Generation

1. SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Future technology options for electricity generation: technical trends, costs and environmental performance Wolfram Krewitt, DLR Brussels, 16.2.2009

2. Objective • support the representation of technology development time dynamics in long term energy scenarios • characterisation of emerging electricity generation technologies with respect to long term future technical, economic and environmental performance

3. technologies covered in NEEDS RS1a • Advanced fossil fuels (incl. CCS) • Hydrogen technologies • Fuel cells • Off-shore wind • Photovoltaic • Concentrating solar thermal power plants • Biomass • Advanced nuclear • ocean technologies

4. methodology • Technology foresight analyse possible technological futures in connection with scenarios about energy systems and related societal developments • Experience curves analyse cost trends of future energy technologies • Life cycle assessment quantification of environmental burdens from future technologies based on dynamic LCA (‘environmental learning curve’) • external costs quantification of external costs of future technology configuration based on future LCA inventories

5. technology futures depend on socio-economic framing conditions • ‘pessimistic scenario’ Socio-economic framing conditions do not stimulate market uptake and technical innovations. • ‘optimistic-realistic scenario’ Strong socio-economic drivers support dynamic market uptake and continuous technology development. It is very likely that the respective technology gains relevance on the global electricity market. • ‘very optimistic scenario’ A technological breakthrough makes the respective technology on the long term a leading global electricity supply technology.

6. future off-shore wind technologies Source: NEEDS, DONG Energy

7. history of wind energy technology development 140 120 100 80 rotor diameter in m 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MW 0.05 0.3 0.5 1.3 2 4.5 5

8. concentrating solar thermal power plants • dispatchable large scale grid connected solar electricity generation • electricity generation today 800 GWh/y • Several power plants under construction

9. CSP technology developments

10. ocean energy technologies (examples) 2 MW pilot plant deployed 2004 in Portugal Pelamis 750 kW (4 articulated tubes; d = 3.5 m; each 40 m long); Wave dragon

11. future cost developments Three complementary approaches: • Bottom-up assessment of cost development • Experience curves • Expert assessment of long term cost developments (interviews)

12. progress ratios for new energy technologies Source: NEEDS, L. Neij

13. PV technology development pathway Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

14. PV learning curve model(‘optimistic-realistic’ scenario) • fixed learning rate for PV modules (20%) (market penetration of thin films after 2010, and shift to third generation devices after 2025) • variable learning rate for electrical BOS: • 20% until 2010 • 10% 2011-2025 • 5% after 2025 • variable learning rate for mechanical BOS: • 20% until 2010 • 10% after 2010 • variable allocation of mechanical BOS to PV for building integrated PV: • 100% until 2010, then -1% each year to 85% in 2025, fixed after 2025 Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

15. future costs of building integrated PV Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

16. environmental burdens from full life cycle • life cycle inventory data on unit process level for each technology; by technology scenario and by base year (‘today’, 2025, 2050) • future configurations for key background processes (e.g. transport, production of iron and steel, copper, aluminium, flat glass, etc.) • energy mix scenarios • centralised LCA data processing at esu-services • final results available in web-based LCA database

17. Comparison present, 2025, 2050 1,800 kWh/(m2*yr) on tilted roof, south-oriented 40 33,0 35 30 25 g CO2 / kWh 20 12,3 15 8,2 7,0 10 4,6 3,0 5 0 single c-Si ribbon CdTe 2025 c-Si ribbon CdTe 2050 Concentrator crystalline 2025 2050 GaInP/GaAs present 2050 future PV life cycle CO2-emissions 2025 2050 Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

18. life cycle CO2 emissions today 2050 g/kWh

19. technology specific external costs • ‘generic’ external cost estimates for future electricity generation technologies in Europe • based on life cycle inventory data and unit damage cost estimates (from RS1b) • significant uncertainties in the field of climate change damage costs

20. quantifiable external costs of future technologies (2050) ct/kWh

21. conclusions • potential for technical innovations offers broad range of development options • policy settings trigger innovation and technical development • emerging energy technologies have a significant potential to reduce costs and environmental impacts • external costs of future low-carbon technologies seem to be relatively low compared to private costs • ‘total costs’ as a one-dimensional decision criteria might be misleading (large remaining uncertainties in quantifying environmental and societal externalities)

22. Thank you very much for your attention! contact us: wolfram.krewitt@dlr.de or visit the websites: www.dlr.de/tt/system www.needs-project.org Acknowledgements: European Commission, 6th framework program Research teams of NEEDS Research stream 1a