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Export Controls—What’s next?

Export Controls—What’s next?. Export Controls – What’s Next?. Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security. Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security. HPC EXPORT CONTROLS.

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Export Controls—What’s next?

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  1. Export Controls—What’s next? Export Controls – What’s Next? Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security

  2. HPC EXPORT CONTROLS • US and Wassenaar partners maintain controls on HPCs for exports to certain countries (i.e., China, Russia and Pakistan) • National security benefits of controlling HPCs: • -- Prevents transfers to military end-users • -- Visibility into others use of computers for their national security work

  3. Previous Control Metric • Composite Theoretical Performance, measured in millions of theoretical operations per second (MTOPS), used for export controls since 1991 • As a result of recent advances in computer and processor architectures, MTOPS: -- Increasingly less effective at ranking relative HPC performance -- Understates relative performance of vector HPCs (e.g., Cray X1 series) -- Difficult to calculate -- Decreasing relevance to HPCs and national security related work

  4. IMPACT OF RAISING MTOPS THRESHOLD 1024-way USPARC4 64-way NEC SX-8 384-way 1.5 GHz IA64 128-way Cray X1E 128-way SGI Altix 128-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 256-way 2 GHz Power5 512-way USPARC4 500K License Req’d 128-way Cray X1 64-way Cray X1E 512-way USPARC3 128-way Cray XD-1 32-way NEC SX-8 64-way NEC SX-6 300K 128-way 2 GHz Power5 64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon 64-way Cray X1 Future Game Consoles 512-way Power3 64-way Cray XD-1 32-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 32-way 3.2 GHz Xeon 32-way SGI Altix 72-way 1.7 GHz Power4 190K No License Req’d

  5. Current HPC Export Controls • 71 FR 20876 (April 24, 2006) • Replaced the CTP formula with the APP formula • The APP formula is much easier to calculate and addressed the shortcomings of CTP • Changed the licensing threshold from 190,000 MTOPS to 0.75 WT

  6. CURRENT CONTROL METRIC • Adjusted Peak Performance (APP): • -- Measured in Weighted TeraFLOPS (WT) • -- Metric derived from existing industry standard-- Simple to calculate • Differentiates between high-end, special order HPCs (vector processors) and commodity off-the-shelf systems: • -- Protects high-end proprietary HPCs used by DoD and DoE for most advanced R&D and simulation • -- Significantly relaxes controls on “commodity” products (e.g., desktop personal computers and entertainment devices)

  7. 7 6 vector systems 5 non-vector systems 4 WT Value 3 2 1 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Rank in the TOP500 WT Values of the Top500 Source: Nov 2004 list

  8. 1024-way USPARC4 384-way 1.5 GHz IA64 128-way Cray X1E 128-way Cray X1 512-way Cray XD-1 256-way 2 GHz Power5 64-way Cray X1E 64-way NEC SX-8 512-way USPARC4 128-way 2 GHz Power5 256-way Cray XD-1 64-way Cray X1 512-way USPARC3 512-way Power3 128-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 64-way NEC SX-6 128-way SGI Altix 32-way NEC SX-8 64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon 72-way 1.7 GHz Power4 128-way Cray XD-1 32-way 3.2 GHz Xeon 32-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 32-way SGI Altix IMPACT OF APP CONTROL METRIC 1.5 License Req’d 1 0.75 No License Req’d Future Game Consoles

  9. WA Results

  10. What’s next? What’s Next?

  11. Moore’s Law HPC Performance Historical Perspective Source: IDA, MCTP

  12. Observations • In three years, 25th-ranked system is off the Top500. • HPC performance growth greater than Moore’s Law => ability to connect multiple processors continues to grow. • Making efficient use of multiple processors has not grown as fast.

  13. Distribution of “Clusters” on Top500 80 70 60 Number of “Clusters” Represented 50 40 30 20 10 1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 Top500 Ranking

  14. Growth and Shake-out in Top 500? Source: IDA, MCTP

  15. Observations From the June 2005 Top500 • Vector machines comprise 3.6% of the Top500, down from 31.6% in June 1995. • Over 75% of the systems use general-purpose interconnection fabric. • Clusters account for 60% of the Top500--fairly evenly distributed across the list. • There may have been a shake-out in suppliers and self-assembly. • Significant share of systems produced outside of Japan and US.

  16. Prognosis • Increasing reliance on COTS components. • Only governments (Japan and US) support non-COTS development. • Peak performance will reach one petaflops well before 2010. • Sustained performance may reach 1 P by 2010.

  17. Moore’s Law is not a linear relationship. APP CTP PDR TOP 500 LIST DATA

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