Outlook for the Euro and US dollar

1. 26th April 2012 Outlook for the Euro and US dollar Trading Perspective and Political risk Michael Hewson, CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst, MSTA, CFTe

3. Outlook for the Euro and US dollar When looking at the price dynamics for these two currencies a number of factors need to be considered • ECB Policy – outlook for rates and further LTRO’s • Fed Policy – low rate outlook and the prospect of further QE. • Politics – US election, French elections, German elections 2013, Greek elections, Portugal, Spain, Fiscal compact, Speculation on a Euro break-up? • Yield differentials on 2, 5 and 10 year yields • Correlations – US dollar index, Spanish 10 year yields, Equities