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Research Program: Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia

Research Program: Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia. Dietmar Dommenget. mode. Centre of Excellence. Research Programs. Land. Convection (Atmosphere). Ocean. Extremes. Modes of Variability. Core Team. Core Team.

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Research Program: Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia

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  1. Research Program: Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia Dietmar Dommenget mode

  2. Centre of Excellence Research Programs • Land • Convection (Atmosphere) • Ocean • Extremes • Modes of Variability

  3. Core Team Core Team Climate Variability Community

  4. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  5. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  6. ACCESS model hierarchy published ACCESS 1.3 running building AMIP AMIP UM-NXXX UM-N96 Atmos. complexity Slab ocean Slab ocean Slab ocean ML-ocean ML-ocean UM-N48 ACCESS MOM-EP ENSO EP-GCM Slab ocean ML-columns Coarse GCM AMIP Ocean complexity CMS-Team et al.

  7. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  8. Weather-Climate Connection Weather Phenomenon Climate Phenomenon backwards Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone Heat wave Heat wave Weather Variables Climate Variables Weather Dynamics Climate Dynamics • Examples: • Heat wave – Tropical cyclones forwards Tess Parker et al.

  9. Weather-Climate Connection Weather Phenomenon Climate Phenomenon Climatology of Fronts Weather Variables Climate Variables Weather Dynamics Climate Dynamics • Examples: • Heat wave – Tropical cyclones • Fronts Gareth Berry et al.

  10. Weather-Climate Connection Stream function / Divergence Walker Circulation (zonal) Weather Phenomenon Climate Phenomenon Weather Variables Climate Variables Weather Dynamics Climate Dynamics Hadley Circulation (meridional) • Examples: • Heat wave – Tropical cyclones • Fronts • Walker/Hadley Cell JulianeSchwendike et al.

  11. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  12. ENSO CP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific • El Nino Diversity

  13. ENSO Wind response • El Nino Diversity • Non-linear dynamics • Atmos. Dynamics

  14. ENSO CP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific 200% (El Nino) • El Nino Diversity • Non-linear dynamics • Atmos. Dynamics • Non-linear teleconnections 50% (El Nino) -50% (La Nina) -200% (La Nina) SLP response per NINO3.4 SST Claudia Frauen et al.

  15. ENSO • El Nino Diversity • Non-linear dynamics • Atmos. Dynamics • Non-linear teleconnections • Tropical inter-basin interactions - -

  16. ENSO • El Nino Diversity • Non-linear dynamics • Atmos. Dynamics • Non-linear teleconnections • Tropical inter-basin interactions • ENSO <-> climate change

  17. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  18. Decadal Variability / Climate Change • What are the structures of Decadal variability? • How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact? • What is the role of the southern Ocean? CMIP5 Percentage of decadal variability Gang Wang et al.

  19. Decadal Variability / Climate Change La Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ? • What are the structures of Decadal variability? • How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact? • What is the role of the southern Ocean? • How does climate change interact with decadal variability? [Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013] CMIP5 Pacific trends 1980-2010 Jing-JiaLuo et al.

  20. Decadal Variability / Climate Change La Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ? • What are the structures of Decadal variability? • How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact? • What is the role of the southern Ocean? • How does climate change interact with decadal variability? • What are the circulation changes under global warming and how can we understand them? [Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013] - - Jing-JiaLuo et al.

  21. Themes Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  22. Model Errors Bottom Up approach Top Down approach Climate Climate CGCM CGCM Process Process Process Process Process Process

  23. Model Errors Traditional approach Top Down approach Bottom Up approach Climate Climate Error CGCM CGCM Can we improve the GCMs without improving any process? Process Process Process

  24. Model Errors Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity Global mean response difference [%] Regional response difference [%]

  25. Model Errors A simple (GREB) climate model study Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity Dommenget et al.

  26. Research Program: Modes of Variability Weather-Climate Seasonal Prediction ENSO ACCESS Model Errors Decadal / Change

  27. Discussion How to improve CGCMs? CGCMs Football Team Current view (literature): Improve model parts (Clouds, Convection, Ocean, Ice) (physical parameterizations, resolution) Improve individual player skills (no coaching) Hypothesis (this study): Improve mean state climate (improve coupling) (flux corrections, anomaly coupling) Improve team play (coaching)

  28. Model Errors Julie tropics vs. s-hemis Weather statistics? My climate change Process vs. coupled system

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