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Thunderstorm Study 00Z TAF July 29, 2010

Thunderstorm Study 00Z TAF July 29, 2010. Thunderstorm Study Synoptic Pattern – 500mb. Thunderstorm Study Surface Map 21Z. Thunderstorm Study Instability 21Z. Thunderstorm Study Satellite & Lightning 21Z. Thunderstorm Study Probability of Convective Precipitation 00Z.

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Thunderstorm Study 00Z TAF July 29, 2010

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  1. Thunderstorm Study00Z TAF July 29, 2010

  2. Thunderstorm StudySynoptic Pattern – 500mb

  3. Thunderstorm StudySurface Map 21Z

  4. Thunderstorm StudyInstability 21Z

  5. Thunderstorm StudySatellite & Lightning 21Z

  6. Thunderstorm StudyProbability of Convective Precipitation 00Z

  7. Thunderstorm StudyProbability of Convective Precipitation 06Z

  8. Thunderstorm StudyProbability of Convective Precipitation 09Z

  9. Thunderstorm StudyProbability 700mb Omega <= 3 microbars/sec 00Z

  10. Thunderstorm StudyProbability 700mb Omega <= 3 microbars/sec 03Z

  11. Thunderstorm StudyProbability 700mb Omega <= 3 microbars/sec 06Z

  12. Thunderstorm StudyProbability 700mb Omega <= 3 microbars/sec 09Z

  13. Thunderstorm StudyClimatology

  14. Thunderstorm StudyWill T-Storm Line Hold Together Long Enough to Impact KIND? • Pros (maintain or increase intensity/coverage) • Moving into instability axis • Approaching the climatologically favored max • Cons (diminish in intensity/coverage) • 500mb short wave energy moving away • Past peak heating (increasing stability) • Model data suggest line will weaken as it moves south

  15. So What Would You Do?

  16. Thunderstorm StudyCCFP Valid 01Z

  17. Thunderstorm StudyCCFP Valid 03Z

  18. Thunderstorm StudyCCFP Valid 05Z

  19. Thunderstorm StudyMy Decision

  20. Thunderstorm StudyActual Obs TS 0226Z – 0501Z About 44% Tempo Time

  21. Thunderstorm StudyParting Thoughts Keep in mind climatologically favored times for TS When in doubt, check out the CCPF products (usually good in forecasting organized convective areas)

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