NextGen and the Weather Information Database

1. NextGen and the Weather Information Database August 26, 2009 Steve Abelman Cammye Sims

2. Overview • NextGen 101 • What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source • Why NOAA? • What are we doing now • The roadmap ahead • A detailed roadmap to IOC • Leveraging existing capabilities • Broader benefits to NOAA • Sciences issue and challenges • Summary

3. NextGen 101 What exactly is NextGen??? • Air transportation network which stresses adaptability by enabling aircraft to immediately adjust to ever-changing factors such as: weather, traffic congestion, aircraft position via GPS, flight trajectory patterns, and security issues • By 2025, all aircraft and airports in U.S. airspace will be connected to the NextGen network and will continually share information in real time to improve efficiency, safety, and absorb the predicted increase in air transportation • NextGen was enacted in 2003 by President Bush and Congress. In this initiative, the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) is responsible for managing a public/private partnership to bring NextGen online by 2025 • JPDO coordinates the specialized efforts of the Departments of Transportation, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce, FAA, NASA, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

4. The 8 Key Capabilities

5. NextGen 101 • Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better(?) weather information • "A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

6. NextGen 101 • “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” • Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. • Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. • Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. “Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again” – Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

7. NextGen 101 • NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems • NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: • Providing a multiple user common weather picture • Consistent and reliable weather information • An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

8. NextGen 101;Key Themes • A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: • “Network Enabled”… • An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time • Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others • Weather information sharing is two-way • “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer • Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

9. NextGen Weather Basics

10. What is the WIDB? • The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: • Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) • High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) • Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) • Turbulence • Icing • Convection • Ceiling and visibility • Winds • The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

11. What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source? • The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): • Is only a portion of the WIDB • Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) • Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA • Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

12. The WIDB:A Conceptual Model Observations Forecasting Numerical Modeling Systems Satellites Network Enabled Operations Statistical Forecasting Systems NWS Forecaster Radars Data Integration WIDB Aircraft 4D Wx SAS Automated Forecast Systems Surface Forecast Integration Soundings Grids Decision Support Systems Custom Graphic Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Integration into User Decisions

13. Why NOAA? • NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: • Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation • Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities • Experienced meteorological workforce • Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA • Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

14. Why NOAA? Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role • “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008

15. So What’s Happening Now? • Multi-agency initiatives: • NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team • Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube • IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube “plumbing” • Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, etc… • Demonstration Team • Requirements Development • Integrated Science Roadmap

16. NWS NextGen Organizational Chart Jason Tuell NextGen WIDB Project Manager Chief, OST Science Plans Branch Cyndie Abelman Chief, OCWWS Aviation Svcs Branch Tim Hopkins Chief, SEC Analysis Branch NOAA co-lead ITES Team Curtis Neidhart Integrated System Solutions Deputy Project Manager John Schattel OST Met. Devel. Lab (MDL) Technical Lead OGC Weather Exchange Modeling Steve Abelman NextGen Outreach Coordinator NOAA co-lead Demo Team Contents Task Execution Cecilia Miner ASB NextGen Lead NOAA co-lead EI Team Contents Task Execution Brian Gockel IT Task Execution Jamie Vavra Verification AOR/RTMA Cammye Sims Outreach Contents Skjei Telecom: Mike Asumussen Bill Swart Christopher Kuruppu Paul Trotter OSIP Documentation Thomas Mak Aster Engineering, Inc. Web Design Database Management Contents IT

17. The Roadmap Ahead • Initial Operational Capability (2013) • Integrated environmental information sources • Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data • Common data standards and protocols • Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools • Intermediate Capability (2016) • Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information • Full Network compatibility of environmental information • Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems • Full Operational Capability (2022) • All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved • High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements • Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

18. The Roadmap Ahead • Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) • Extremely popular aviation weather web service • Not just a display capability • Already has many NextGen data service capabilities • Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen • Has existing capability to support 4D data cube • Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes) http://adds.aviationweather.gov/

19. The Roadmap Ahead • National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) • Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission • Net-centric approach • Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical • Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO

20. The Roadmap Ahead • Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) • Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based) • operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance • Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally • Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback

21. The Roadmap Ahead • Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) • Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation • Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance • Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods • Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts • Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts

22. The Roadmap Ahead • Auto-nowcaster • a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value-added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products • goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS • being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida

23. 4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA • Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services • Consistency challenges not unique to aviation • More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements • Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts • Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

24. 4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA • Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube • Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA • IT and Data Management enhancements • Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation • Support GEOSS requirements • Enhances continuity of operations • Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

25. Science Issues and Challenges • Consistency • The Forecast Process • Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast • Model Enhancements and Improvements • Verification • Uncertainty Information

26. The “Consistency” Issue • The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy • Consistency Challenges: • Spatial • Internal • “Representativeness”

27. The “Consistency” Issue • Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers: Public: This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

28. The Forecast Process Most existing NWS forecast processes not designed to meet the resolution, refresh and latency requirements of NextGen Temporal and Spatial resolution – Are NextGen observation and forecast requirements viable? Will model researchers and developers have the resources available? NOAA and research partner R&D focusing on Meteorologist-in-the-Loop (MITL) and Meteorologist-over-the-Loop (MOTL) techniques Changing forecast process culture is complex and possibly controversial 28

29. Convective Modeling • Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models • Convection in the short term time frame…0-2 hours (tactical) and 2-8 hours (strategic)…is key • Resolution requirements based on • Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) • Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) • Global – outside the NAS

30. Verification NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc… NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor 30

31. Uncertainty Information Using probabilistic forecasts From the JPDO Weather ConOps… “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of all possible outcomes…” Are we ready for this? Do we understand the difference between probabilistic forecasts and deterministic forecasts? Does “Stormy” give you a probabilistic or deterministic forecast? 31

32. Summary • NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced • The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process • NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond • Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

33. Summary • There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS • The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation • There are many critical science issues and challenges ahead • Any questions? Please contact steve.abelman@noaa.gov

34. Thanks for your time! 34