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Summer 2018 SIM Stock Presentation: Materials Sector July 25, 2018. Kyle McKee & Ken Morris. Agenda. Sector Overview - Recap. SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview. Stock Analysis. Conclusion/Final Recommendation. Appendix. S&P 500 Sectors - Materials.
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Summer 2018 SIM Stock Presentation: Materials Sector July 25, 2018 • Kyle McKee & Ken Morris
Agenda • Sector Overview - Recap • SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview • Stock Analysis • Conclusion/Final Recommendation • Appendix
S&P 500 Sectors - Materials • Materials Sector represents 2.66% of the S&P 500 by weight • Second smallest sector beating only the Telecom sector at 1.8%
Sector Overview - Recap • SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview • Stock Analysis • Conclusion/Final Recommendation • Appendix
SIM Portfolio Holdings & Allocation as of June 30, 2018 Containers & Packaging Chemicals
Sector Overview - Recap • SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview • Stock Analysis • Conclusion/Final Recommendation • Appendix
Crown Holdings (CCK) Overview • Overview • Manufactures primarily steel and aluminum food and beverage containers • Also manufactures caps & closures, aerosols and specialty packaging • 78% of consolidated sales are made abroad, representing significant operations
Crown Holdings (CCK) Recent Performance and Events Recent stock performance has slipped due to higher leverage and uncertainty based on some potential anti-trust litigation in Europe • Recent Events • Total debt increased through Q1/Q2 from $5.2B at 12/31/2017 to $9.3B in order to fund the acquisition of Signode, a protective packaging manufacture for various industries • Represents new line of business, not intended to provide significant synergies • Potential litigation settlement • German antitrust investigation charges have been turned to governing body in Europe, could result in significant penalty • Revised Guidance as of Q2 Earnings Release • EPS reduced from $5.30 to $5.15 for 2018 • No change in estimates to adjusted free cash flow of $625M in 2018 and $775M in 2019
Crown Holdings (CCK) Valuation • DCF Valuation • DCF performed with a very conservative 8.3% WACC discount rate, consensus (Morningstar) estimates a 7.8% • Conservative long-term growth rate of 2.5% for terminal value • Modeled in a $150M payment for the litigation summary in 2020 • Results yield a $52.62 market value per share representing a 15% discount to the market (as of 6/29/2018), updated DCF as of 7/22 represents a $59.18 price per share with a 27% discount • Ratios • Currently trading at P/E close to 52 week low • Materials index currently trading at 20.32x P/E
Crown Holdings (CCK) Outlook Increased focus on reducing leverage coupled with wage and population growth abroad provide opportunity for continued growth • Growth Drivers • Consumer discretionary income • Beverage preferences including beer and soda • Population growth • Continued favoritism towards flavored soda water • Continued expansion of craft brewers utilizing aluminum cans • Risks • Company recently revised estimates for the year downward due to increased freight costs • Highly leveraged • Pending litigation could be substantial • Uncertainty of operations abroad which make up 78% of consolidated net sales • CCK has a focus to reduce leverage over the upcoming years • CCK estimating over $3B in free cash flow over the next three years which will be used to pay down debt
Crown Holdings (CCK) Recommendation • Company and sector have underperformed overall market YTD (company YTD down 31%). • Crown Holdings recently acquired a new line of business that is set to generate additional cash flow in the coming years • Poised to enter emerging markets abroad and continue to expand • Settlement may not be as bad as assumed and Company will continue to pay down debt
Stock: W.R. Grace & Co. • Business Overview • Founded in 1854, W.R. Grace produces and sells specialty chemicals and materials worldwide • Operates through two reportable business segments: • Grace Catalysts Technologies • Includes catalysts and related products and technologies used in refining, petrochemical and other chemical manufacturing applications • Grace Materials Technologies • Includes specialty materials, including silica-based and silica-alumina-based materials • Used in coatings, consumer, industrial, and pharmaceutical applications • Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.
W.R. Grace & Co. – Financial Performance Market Data Financial Data
W.R. Grace & Co. – Investment Outlook • Opportunities • Rising demand for refining catalysts and silica for coating (in particular in Asia market) • Increase in prices for catalysts can result in increase in sales/EPS for 2018 • Benefits of improved product mix for silica and catalyst products – substantial spend in R&D in 2017 • Risks • Foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation - 75% of 2017 sales outside of U.S. • Volatility of energy and commodity prices – company uses petroleum-based materials, metals, natural gas to manufacture product Competitor Multiples
Stock: Owens-Illinois • Business Overview • Largest manufacturer of glass containers with 78 manufacturing plants in 23 countries. • Sells glass container products to food and beverage manufacturers primarily in Europe, North America, South America, and the Asia Pacific. • Customers include Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola, Diageo, MillerCoors, Nestle and many others. • Headquartered in Perrysburg, Ohio. Market Data Financial Data (TTM)
OI Segment Information • Historically, the company had four reportable segments based on geographic location: Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific. • Starting in Q1 2018, North America and Latin America segments were merged – resulting in three segments: Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific Revenue by Geographic Segment
Owens-Illinois – Investment Outlook • Risks • Changing consumer tastes – away from glass to alternative packaging solutions (in beer & soda) • Decline in beer consumption in U.S. (beer is primary end market for OI glass bottles) • Fluctuation in foreign currency exchange rates (70% of sales from non-U.S. operations) • High debt levels – debt/capital ratio of 0.84 • Geopolitical risks – trade war escalation with China, Europe, and Mexico. • Opportunities • Growth prospects in Asia Pacific and Latin American markets due to population growth and surge in flavored beverage industry (natural, organic, detox, flavored water, etc.) • Asset improvement investments and cost reduction initiatives will create efficiencies and improve operating margins. • Continued strong performance of joint venture with Constellation Brands and Vitro Food and Beverage acquisition.
Owens-Illinois – Key Ratios (10 YR) OI Valuation CompetitorMultiples
Owens-Illinois – Recommendation • Company and sector have underperformed overall market YTD (company YTD down 31%). • Beta is elevated compared to overall market and key peers in the industry • Q2 2018 Earnings released on 7/23/2018 – EPS beat management guidance/estimates at $0.77 vs. $0.75. However, revenue missed estimates $1.77B vs. $1.82B (global shipments down 1% YoY in Q2 and stronger U.S. dollar) • Business operations should improve for Q3 2018, though uncertainty on currency fluctuation impact and rising energy costs.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Overview • Overview • Manufactures corrugated packaging and containers • Approximately 80% of sales are coming from containerboard / packaging • Significant sales to major plays including Amazon and Walmart • Growth Factors • Consumer wages due to increased purchases of discretionary products • Earnings rise and fall with input prices to include cardboard and paper fibers • High profit margins for materials industry
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Recent Performance and Events • Recent Events • Exceeded estimates for Q1 EPS - $1.53 per share • 2017 revenue represented a 12% increase from 2016 • Other • 2.7% Dividend yield
Packaging Corporation of America – Recommendation • Recommendation • Packaging products are a crucial component to online retailer’s business models which continue to expand • PKG has shown consistent increase in revenue growth over the periods with increased margins • Low amount of debt of $2.0B represents opportunity for increased cash flows to equity holders • Risks • Profit margins do not continue to hold the same as historicals • Economic downturn limits consumer spending
Sector Overview - Recap • SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview • Stock Analysis • Conclusion/Final Recommendation • Appendix
Sector Overview - Recap • SIM Holdings & Allocation Overview • Stock Analysis • Conclusion/Final Recommendation • Appendix