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Purple Conference 26/5/2010

Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality: Looking forward Jurgen Tack Anik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,…. Purple Conference 26/5/2010. Energy Dir. Biodiv 2010. WFD.

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Purple Conference 26/5/2010

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  1. Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality:Looking forwardJurgen TackAnik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,… Purple Conference 26/5/2010

  2. Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 WFD Floods Dir Natura 2000 Groundwater Dir EU white paper… Nitrate Dir… Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement MEA Ecosystem Serv. agriculture urbanisation

  3. Looking forward: landuse 2030

  4. agriculture urbanisation Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 WFD Floods Dir Natura 2000 Groundwater Dir EU white paper… Nitrate Dir… Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement MEA Ecosystem Serv.

  5. Environment & Nature exploration Looking forward…

  6. Environmentoutlook Natureoutlook

  7. Land use model Flanders Subtitel > Tekst

  8. Scenario’s Land use Reference Environmental Quality (reference) Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional Socio-economics Climate Land use Reference Environmental Quality (Europe) Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional

  9. 2005 ER 2030 Urbanisation:Distance to “green areas” for inhabitants • Accessibility of “green areas”: decline • Peri-urban areas: increase

  10. ChapterAgriculture Policy scenarios for agriculture & environment:- unchanged policy: Reference scenario shrinking land use by 5 % in 25 years growing productivity (tonnes/ha)- alternative policy: Europe scenario: - manure policy: 140 kg N/ha - manure processing at stable prices - lower nutrient content in animal feed - agriculture with environmental and nature objectives EnvironmentOutlook 2030

  11. Agriculture: change in land use > Reference decrease of 5% > Europa decrease of 3 %; Increase AEN

  12. 2005 ER 2030 Agriculture with environment & nature objectives > Europe-2030: increase in fields with environment & nature objectives

  13. 2005 Europe 2030 Critical load (nitrogen) > Decrease in areas overrunning the critical load according to the vegetation

  14. Conclusion • Urbanisation: increase • Agricultural areas: decrease • European goals demand larger areas for agricultural use (due to lower production capacity) • Stricter manure policy is needed to reach water targets • Critical load: Europe scenario necessary

  15. Looking forward: rivers 2027

  16. Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 WFD Floods Dir Natura 2000 Groundwater Dir EU white paper… Nitrate Dir… Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement MEA Ecosystem Serv. agriculture urbanisation

  17. Water quality Manure advice, buffer strips, wintergreen cover Costs other sources agriculture companies public waste water treatment manure decree EnvironmentOutlook 2030

  18. Scenario’s waterlopen 2027

  19. Minimal oxygen concentration (mg O²/l) ≤ 2 > 2 en ≤ 4 > 4 en ≤ 6 > 6 en ≤ 8 ≥ 8 Water quality: oxygen R 2015 E 2015 E 2027 2006 • good ecological quality : increase after 2027

  20. Water quality: restoration of fish populations 2006 R 2015 E 2015 E 2027 2005 Rheophylic Fish populations: sensitive to pollution Suitability : barrier only migratio low reproducttion moderate reproduction good reproduction optimal reproduction • restoration reproduction capacity : after Europe 2027 scenario

  21. Water quality : suitability for fish Rheophylic species sensitive for pollution Vulnerable Tolerant E27 : jump forward Sensitive species: maximum = 45% of potential habitat

  22. Conclusions • Current and complementory measures will lower discharges into surface water. • Fysico-chemical water quality continues to increase, but phosphorous remains a major problem. • Phosphorous: important limiting factor for primary production and macrophyte growth • Biological quality increases, but in the most advanced scenario only between 45 and 60% of the rivers reaches a good water quality. EnvironmentOutlook 2030

  23. Looking forward: climate change

  24. agriculture urbanisation Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 WFD Floods Dir Natura 2000 Groundwater Dir EU white paper… Nitrate Dir… Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement MEA Ecosystem Serv.

  25. Climate change: temperature Increase temperature: monthly average 2100 > Flanders 2100: +2,5 tot +9°C in summer

  26. Climate change: precipitation Flanders 2100: 2 scenarios increase in winter precepitation Flanders 2100: all scenarios decrease in summer precepitation

  27. Climate change: increased flood risk

  28. Land use changes • Valley: decrease agriculture use, less ncrease build up areas, more opportunities for nature

  29. Climate change Consequences for marsh vegetations • Valley: Opportunities for nature, for climate adaptation, for Carbon stocks,…

  30. Conclusions • Higher flood capacity will is needed • Higher risks of drought in summer • Risk of species loss increases • “resilient” ecosystems will be needed • Opportunities for marsh vegetation in flood areas • Opportunities for different ecosystem services in flood areas

  31. Some conclusions of the future… Beekforel Yves Adams

  32. Goals will Not be reached Goals will Not be reached Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 WFD Floods Dir Natura 2000 Groundwater Dir EU white paper… Nitrate Dir… Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement MEA Ecosystem Serv. agriculture urbanisation AEN increase needed Ecosystems with More resilience needed More buffer Capacity needed Valley: opportunities for adaptation New holistic approach Temperature: increase Decrease area Increase AEN Increase peri urban area

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