A Microbial Risk Assessor Looks at Food Fraud

1. A Microbial Risk Assessor Looks at Food Fraud Don Schaffner, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor and Extension Specialist in Food Science Rutgers, The State University of NJ

2. But first a word from our sponsors… ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

3. Why is food fraud hard? • Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. • United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

4. Another reason why it might be hard ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

5. Food Fraud vs. Food Safety • Manning and Soon (2016) ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

6. Outline • Why this topic? • I know about QRMA, but not much about food fraud • Risk based approaches should be applicable • Focus on what is important ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

7. Food Safety Examples (Scallan et al.) • 88% of US foodborne disease cases come from 13% of pathogens • Norovirus (5.5 M) • Salmonella (1.0 M) • C. perfringens (965 K) • Campylobacter (845 K) • 82% of US foodborne disease deaths come from 13% of pathogens • Salmonella (378) • Toxoplasma (327) • L. monocytogenes (255) • Norovirus (149) ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

8. Food Fraud Example (Johnson 2014) • 61% of reported types come from 24% of types • Oils • Spices • Milk • Sweeteners ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

9. Food Fraud Example • 57% of EMA incidents come from 21% of ingredient categories • Fish/seafood • Oils, fats • Alcoholic beverages • Meat, meat products ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

10. Food Fraud Example • 78% of EMA incidents come from 29% of adulteration types • Substitution/ dilution • Unapproved additive ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

11. Definitions ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

12. Hypothetical Examples • Microbiology • Hazard: Pathogen XYZ • Risk: probability and severity • One in every 1,000 servings contains 1 cell of Organism XYZ, and one cell has a 1/300 chance of causing diarrhea, a 1/20,000 chance of causing hospitalization, and a 1/500,00 chance of causing death • Food Fraud • Hazard: Customer is cheated • Risk: Specifies probability and severity • One in every 100 containers of product X contain a substituted ingredient, where the actual ingredient costs z, and the substituted ingredient cost z/10. ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

13. Risk Analysis Components • (Quantitative) Risk Assessment • How big is the risk, what factors control the risk? • Scientific process • Risk Communication • How can we talk about the risk with affected individuals? • Social and psychological process • Risk Management • What can we do about the risk? • Policy-making process, small “p” political • Not scientific, but informed by science ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

14. Step in Risk Assessment ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

15. Published examples ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

16. 80% correct given fraud type country food category 52% correct without country of origin product-country combo Food Control 2016 results… ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

17. Benefits of membership ;) ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

18. Unpublished Example ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019

19. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future Niels Bohr? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Earliest attribution seems to be Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke The future? ABRAPA, Brazil, June 2019