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Economics of Complexity and the Collapse of Complex Societies Panel on Rapid/Expedited Systems Engineering Annual SERC

Economics of Complexity and the Collapse of Complex Societies Panel on Rapid/Expedited Systems Engineering Annual SERC Research Review. Professor Ricardo Valerdi Department of Systems & Industrial Engineering School of Sustainable Engineered Systems College of Engineering

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Economics of Complexity and the Collapse of Complex Societies Panel on Rapid/Expedited Systems Engineering Annual SERC

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  1. Economics of Complexity and the Collapse of Complex SocietiesPanel on Rapid/Expedited Systems EngineeringAnnual SERC Research Review Professor Ricardo Valerdi Department of Systems & Industrial Engineering School of Sustainable Engineered Systems College of Engineering University of Arizona rvalerdi@sie.arizona.edu

  2. Conway’s Law Effective systems design emerges from system-oriented organizations and the processes employed. Conway, M. E. (April, 1968), "How do Committees Invent?", Datamation 14 (5): 28–31.

  3. Burdens of Complexity • The “Null Program” • Coordination and oversight are the main determinant of the critical path • Complexity is not free • The circumvention of ineffective processes makes societies vulnerable of collapse

  4. Societies collapse from the same processes by which they become more complex Roman Empire 27 BC – 476 AD

  5. Continued investment in complexity as a problem solving strategy yields a declining marginal return Elaboration of structure and control simplifies and channels human behavior Tainter, J.,The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), Cambridge University Press.

  6. Self-organized Criticality The ability to dampen the negative effects of complexity cascades is the fundamental reason civilization has advanced

  7. Augustine’s Law In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3 ½ days each per week except for the leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day. N. R. Augustine, Augustine’s Laws. Reston, VA: AIAA, 1997.

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