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GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010

GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010. B iofuel E valuation for T anzanian T echnological E fficiency using R enewables - I ntegrated S trategies

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GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010

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  1. GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010 Biofuel Evaluation for Tanzanian Technological Efficiency using Renewables - Integrated Strategies Strategies to use Biofuel Value Chain Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond to Global Change - Enhancing low-productivity Farming in Tanzania and linking to SMEs Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V. Environmental Economics and World Trade The International Food Policy Research Institute Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa World Agroforestry Centre

  2. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Structure 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities & Outputs 4 Case study region 5 Time frame 6 Preliminary results 7 Challenges

  3. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 1. Objective To identify the potential for linking low-productivity farming to small and medium enterprises (SME) to enhance livelihoods through biofuel value chains in the scope of increased global energy demand. To provide farmers, regional organizations and local authorities in Tanzania with feasible strategies to benefit from biomass production potential and mitigate food insecurity.

  4. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 2. Problem Most significant global drivers: Climate Change (Gbetibouo et al. 2006) and global energy demand (Von Braun 2007). -> High forecast uncertainty Biofuels potential to provide communities in sSA with multiple energy services (e.g, heating, cooking, transport) -> Benefit to rural populations (United Nations 2007). Risk of increasing food prices and reduced supply (Von Braun 2007) -> Displacement of vulnerable people from productive land, negative environmental impacts (Thornton et al. 2006).

  5. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 2. Problem Potential intervention points to assist rural poor (Leuenberger & Wohlgemuth 2006) Pathways on biofuel value chains from (1) biomass resources to (2) supply systems, (3) conversion (4) processed end products -> Maximizing profit through producing feedstock for external markets, -> Optimal mix of energy carriers and supply for domestic and industrial users at rural level -> Condition: sustainability with focus on food security & ecosystem health

  6. Biomass ressources (e.g. oil bearing plants) Type, Condition, Requirements 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Positive Impacts 2. Problem Supply systems (e.g. harvesting, collection, etc.) Conversion (e.g. pressing, fermentation, estherfication) End products (e.g. Transportation fuels, electricity, etc.) Negative Impacts

  7. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Modeling Statistics Appraisal Expertise 3. Activities of partners global global energy and agricultural modeling The International Food Policy Research Institute Biomass consumption patterns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Coordination & value chain analysis Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V. Environmental Economics and World Trade Village modeling & certification appraisal Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa Contact & workshop Contact & workshop World Agroforestry Centre local

  8. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 3. Activity IFPRI Top-down global modeling approaches to downscale implications for energy demand and to excess supply or gaps in supplies. -> The scenario solving by the agricultural sector model IMPACT -> Country-level food outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa related to the global food situation in medium- and long-term analysis (Von Braun 2007).

  9. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 3. Activity Wuppertal Institute Biomass consumption patterns with focus on competing biomass uses (food, material, energy) and options for cascading systems. -> Description of patterns of consumption and forecasts linking outputs from global scenarios (output 1) and biomass value chains (output 3). -> Assessment of scenario implications (such as production incentives, key drivers for biomass consumption pattern, export opporunities, expected benetifs, gross indication for climate balances (CO2).

  10. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 3. Activity IUW, WI, ZALF, ICRAF, ASARECA Bottom-up biomass value chains through feasibility studies on potential pathways of linking low-productivity farming to SME on local, decentralized biomass concepts. -> Microeconomic calculations (costs, benefits, risks, marginal analysis) underline technological and infrastructural feasibility -> Methods on participatory stakeholder analysis and involvements by means of adequate appraisal methods -> The transferability of the case study region-results to other regions in Sub-Saharan Africa will be assessed.

  11. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 3. Activity ZALF Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) towards trade offs between socio-economic and environmental indicators related to production and side conditions for biomass value chains. -> Assessing the situation of food security -> Each sustainability dimension (social, environmental, economic) must be represented by sound and consistent indicators.

  12. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 3. Activity ZALF, all An Information System of feasible value chain concepts as advice packages for capacity building and dissemination strategies -> Access to gained knowledge as people- centered approach -> IS has to account for key actors along the “value chain” -> For the Tanzanian case and main findings on the transferability test to other representative Sub-Saharan regions.

  13. Regional Case Study Analysis Regional & local energy Scenarios Global energy and agricultural modeling Top-Down Output 1 Biomass consumption patterns Output 2 Biomass Value Chain Analysis Output 3 Stakeholder Analysis & Appraisal Methods Sustainability Impact Assessment Output 4 Trade offs and Implications for food security Information System Output 5 Bottom-Up Capacity Building & Dissemination

  14. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 4. Overview: Scoping study

  15. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 4. Overview: Case Study

  16. Master Themes, internal Reports IFPRI Modelling with IMPACT 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Modeling, Data Evaluation Household surveys (village model) 5. Time frame Workshop 3 Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Year 2010 2011 2009 Workshop 1: Kick-Off Meeting, Identification Information Gaps, Strategy Workshop 2: First Results, Model Validation Workshop 3: Model Results Discussion, Information System Adjustment

  17. Biofuel Value Chains • Wood / charcoal -> baseline • Jatropha -> energy use at community level (e.g. MFP) • Palm Oil -> out grower systems • Ongoing activities • Modelling (IMPACT & CGE village model) • Village Survey in Kinole for multiple use (CGE, SIA etc.) • 5 master theses as satellites studies • Indicator development - Sustainability Impact Assessment • Participative stakeholder workshops • Academic level (session convener “Sustainable biofuel production in developing countries”), special issue • Homepage as interaction platform among actors (Information System) 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Preliminary Results

  18. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Building from past scenario exercises 6. IMPACT Model The descriptive ‘storylines’ (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), UNEP Global Environmental Outllook (GEO) provide a starting point for thinking about how socio-economic and environmental drivers could evolve differently for a region like Tanzania UNEP GEO-4 assessment to define the direction of some key drivers of change in order to evaluate the dynamics within food and fuel markets in Tanzania

  19. Three Scenarios for Tanzania’s Future Look at a baseline of “Business-as-Usual” in addition to two alternative ones: “Security First” – which is a “Balkanization”-type of scenario that has much less trade (much higher levels of trade protection), slow diffusion of knowledge, less innovation, and slower economic growth. Most of the key socio-economic indicators point in the “negative” direction under this scenario “Sustainability First” – which is where policies promoting environmental protection, more efficient energy usage and technologies, and more emphasis on yield and productivity growth to avoid agricultural area expansion 6. IMPACT Model 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges

  20. Population Growth in Tanzania under scenarios 6. IMPACT Model 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges IFs model outputs Page 20

  21. Per capita income growth in Tanzania under scenarios 6. IMPACT Model 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges IFs model outputs Page 21

  22. 6. IMPACT Model Girls secondary schooling rates in Tanzania under scenarios 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges IMPACT model inputs Page 22

  23. 6. IMPACT Model Child malnutrition in Tanzania under scenarios 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Page 23 IMPACT model outputs

  24. 6. IMPACT Model Concluding Thoughts Currently undertaking some key improvements: Refining scenario definitions to incorporate biofuels and bioenergy (such as biomass use at the household level) Account for effects of gradual diet change in the high-income countries that have an effect on market in SS Africa (such as changes in meat demand) Look more closely at the dimensions of urbanization in Tanzania and the implications for diet and energy usage Currently revising the global biofuels modeling framework to better link with country-level markets in Tanzania 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges

  25. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges • Wood chain - baseline • Integration: Agroforestry Good Practices / woodlots • Efficiency (charcoal production and stoves) and trade off analysis of best alternatives • Jatropha - scenario • Controversial discussion • Jatropha adds value under good site conditions / inputs • -> Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm (1,2 kg seeds / tree) • Added value depends on individual set of conditions • -> test case in Kinole • Jatropha as support plant for high value crops (e.g. vanilla) -> major condition with market access • Checklist to discuss potentials, requirements, fulfillments • -> focus groups 6. Results: Jatropha / Wood Chain Kinole (Added value screening)

  26. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm (1,2 kg seeds / tree) 6. Results: Jatropha Kinole Pepper (left) Vanilla (right)

  27. Participative development of an integrated approach • to analyze potentials and requirements for implementing site-specific value-chain concepts for biofuels • To conceptually embed the findings into policy framework (e.g. biofuel guidelines) • to develop tools for discussion support at community level 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Results: Workshops Household surveys (village model) Workshop 3 Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Year 2010 2011 2009

  28. First Better-iS workshop • Discussion among farmers, policy makers at district level / ministry, researchers, NGOs and SME-holder • Sustainability impact assessment: Indicator development • Preparation for first up-scaling example (Jatropha seedlings) • Promising process with focus on the village Kinole • >> Survey is being conducted (until end of June) • First village workshop • Harmonizing of workshop outcomes to local community level 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Results: Workshop & Survey

  29. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Results: Workshops

  30. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Results: Workshops

  31. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges • Development of a biofuel checklist to dicuss requirements versus degrees of fulfillment, e.g • - access to capital • human capital • infrastructure 6. Participative Decision Support Tool Assessment method (1-3 from low to high) Requirements to implement an intervention Degrees of fulfillment of implemented intervention

  32. 60 questions and related indicators 6. Participative Decision Support Tool

  33. 6. CGE Modelling at village level Village survey provides data for Social Accounting matrix 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges

  34. 6. Homepage Better-iS http://www.better-is.com/ From homepage towards Information System with decision support tools 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges

  35. 1 Objective 2 Problem 3 Activities 4 Case Study 5 Time Frame 6 Results 7 Challenges 6. Summary Homepage / Decision support products in an Information System for involved actors Farmers, local / national decision makers Policy recommendations on implementation strategies Value chain-specific requirement tools Research reports on scientific outcomes IFSA conference Peer-reviewed scientific publications (Special Issue) Training of PhD & master students in Africa and Germany Network among SME-holder, Research & Policy Integration of different components to establish an Information System that is accessible for all actors To take results to the ground for actual implementation To actually link top-down outcomes with bottom-up findings To embed developed approaches into biofuel guidelines

  36. Thank you for your attention! http://www.better-is.com/

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