Nuclear Disarmament: From Roadblocks to Milestones

1. Nuclear Disarmament: From Roadblocks to Milestones Manpreet Sethi Senior Fellow Centre for Strategic and International Studies WAAS, 19 Oct, 2008, Hyderabad

2. Aim • Assess where we are • Identify the roadblocks • Propose some milestones

3. Where are we? In a globalized nuclear world linked by ties of terror and response “The early 21st century is characterized by deteriorating relations among major powers, the unraveling of treaty based security regimes, an increased sense of vulnerability to terrorist attack, and crisis of legitimacy and credibility in national and international institutions of governance… Such developments are important factors in creating a fear filled security environment…. Report of UN Secretary General, 2005

4. Where are we? • Where proliferation is inevitable • Where risk of nuclear terrorism is high • Where piecemeal solutions are being taken • Reducing nuclear weapons, increasing salience • Multilateral arms control replaced by coalition of willing arrangements • Where the only sustainable route to non-proliferation is being ignored • Where NWS are disinterested; NNWS are weak • Few takers for elimination of nuclear weapons

5. Major Roadblocks • Desirability of world without nuclear weapons • More war prone • Possibility of cheaters • But, desirability never stronger • Increasing nuclear dangers • Proliferation • Terrorism

6. Major Roadblocks • Feasibility of world without nuclear weapons • Problem of physical dismantlement & safe storage of material • Financial costs of exercise • Knowledge of bomb making can never be disinvented (virtual arsenals)

7. Major Roadblocks • But, feasibility never better • Technological advances in verification • Better surveillance and sensor capabilities • Environmental sampling • CTR experience in dismantling/conversion of warheads for use in nuclear power generation • Waste disposal

8. Major Roadblocks • Fossilised mindsets • Perceptions of deterrence • Role of nuclear weapons • Lack of • Political vision and statesmanship • Military courage • Logisitc innovation • Transparency and trust in inter-state relations

9. Proposed Milestones • Elaborate roadmaps already exist • Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan, 1988 • Canberra Commission Report • Essential starting point has to be Devaluation of nuclear weapons in order to be able to discard them “Peace, like war, must begin in the minds of men”

10. Proposed Milestones • Target nuclear belief systems • Redraft nuclear doctrines to restrict the role of nuclear weapons • Halt further NW modernisation • Accept No First Use • Dealerting Demating Detargeting • Ban the use of nuclear weapons

11. Some caveats… • NWFW cannot come about overnight • NWFW possible if steps taken with sincerity, backed by belief, sustained by passion and supported by innovation • NWFW need not wait for the world to renounce armed conflict • Calibrated , cooperative approach necessary