Can Mobility Management have a Serious Impact on Climate Change?

1. Can Mobility Management have a Serious Impact on Climate Change? Viewpoints by Raf Canters and Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) Moderated by Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

2. Introduction Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

3. Today’s interactive session • welcome & method (5’) • short round on viewpoints (2x15’) • discussion round 1 (20’) • changeover (5’) • discussion round 2 (20’) • wrap up and general conclusions (10’) www.eltis.org

4. Introduction and goal • The ELTIS Café wants to boost dialogue and exchange experience and ideas in small but inspiring groups. • The ELTIS Café aims to further encourage the exchange of ideas and experiences in a less formal but still unconventional way. • To do this, ELTIS organises several sessions at various events where participants sit together at small tables as in a café. • Brief presentations by proponents of different viewpoints on the same topic are made and then two rounds of discussion are held. www.eltis.org

5. What is ELTIS? The European Local Transport Information Service(ELTIS) isEurope‘s number one web portal on urban transport and mobility It is an initiative of the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy and Transport www.eltis.org

6. ELTIS aims to: Provide information and support the exchange of experience in the field of urban and regional transport in Europe. www.eltis.org

7. On-line contents • News • Events • Calls and tenders • Tools for practitioners • EU initiatives and policies • Case studies • Links • User association • Vote & win www.eltis.org

8. Today’s viewpoints Raf Canters and Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

9. A Serious Impact on Climate Change? Raf Canters (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

10. Climate for a transport change? • TERM 2007 report: performance of the transport sector towards future targets for emission reductions. • Previous and current EU policies have mainly focused on improving vehicle technology and fuel quality to reduce pressures on the environment. • Trends and projections show that these policies have not been enough to reach the targets. • Short-term projections indicate that emissions from transport will increase in almost all EU-27 Member States (exception: Germany). • Technology measures are and will be insufficient to meet the targets. www.eltis.org

11. Climate for a transport change? (2) • The main messages are clear: • Implementation of non-technical measures, including behavioural change, must continue and if possible be intensified. • If the increase in transport volumes is not limited, other measures will not be enough to achieve a sustainable transport system and give the necessary contribution to limiting climate change. • Transport demand measures and policy instruments must be implemented in sectors other than transport and thus must be addressed by policies other than transport policy. • But messages & reality: different things… www.eltis.org

12. Let’s face it: transport grows www.eltis.org

13. Let’s face it: transport grows (2) • Increased car usage and a reduced number of passengers per car negate the emissions improvements gained from vehicle efficiency. • The number of passenger kilometres grew every year between 1990 and 2004. • * air +49% * car +18% (2004 = 74% of all passenger transport) • * rail EU‑15 +17%, NMS -49% * bus EU‑15 +10%, NMS -11% • * cycling, walking …? [wait for sustainable mobility observatory] • Alternative fuels policy is starting to take effect, but is this good? • Market shares of road and air travel are continuing to grow. - Access to many basic services is dependent on car use. - Present price structures are favouring individual transport. - Infrastructure - in particular road and high-speed rail - expands. www.eltis.org

14. Let’s face it: transport grows (3) • A serious impact? Let’s be modest on the impact of MM • Look out the window: mobility management is still a niche within the transport sector and transport policy. • Considering the scope of transport we often don’t manage mobility, we manage the mobility others allow us to manage, something to play with. www.eltis.org

15. Climate change and transport • Transport globally accounts for 14% of greenhouse gas emissions (fuel based, not taking into account production). • A lot of ideas on how transport-related emissions might be reduced, foremost by combination of strong technological innovation and behavioural change. • To a large degree these reductions are offsetting future growth rather than absolute reductions! www.eltis.org

16. Climate change and transport (2) • MM does not target industry or building solutions. It is targeted at transport (reducing car use, better public transport) urban planning (stop sprawl in your community) and policy (opportunities that make economic and environmental sense) solutions. • Climate change might be countered in many different ways. Most solutions involve increasing the efficiency of our energy use to reduce fossil fuel demand, while maintaining (or improving) our lifestyles. www.eltis.org

17. Climate change and transport (3) • A serious impact? • Our lifestyles have changed. Early 20th Century President Herbert Hoover promised "a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." • In 2008 some are having second thoughts about all those cars. It seems they should instead be worrying about the chickens. • 2007 United Nations report on livestock and the environment indicated insights that suggest that the environmental community has focused its efforts almost exclusively on abating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. • Data published by Dr. James Hansen and others show that CO2 emissions are not the main cause of observed atmospheric warming. James Hansen….Is he another global warming sceptic? www.eltis.org

18. Climate change and transport (4) • Let’s be more modest on the transport impact in general • Hansen is Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies who has been called “a grandfather of the global warming theory.” • It’s true that human activity produces vastly more CO2 than all other greenhouse gases put together. However, this does not mean it is responsible for most of the earth’s warming. • This result is not widely known in the environmental community, due to a fear that polluting industries will use it as an excuse. • The fact remains that sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are responsible for virtually all the global warming we’re seeing and are going to see for the next fifty years. If we wish to curb global warming we must look at strategies to address non-CO2 emissions. The strategy with the most impact is becoming a vegetarian… www.eltis.org

19. MM as a catalyst in tackling climate change Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

20. Doomsday scenario? • TERM 2007: Transport grows • Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies - Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change www.eltis.org

21. Doomsday scenario? (2) • Mid-term Review of White Paper: Transport grows www.eltis.org

22. Doomsday scenario? (3) • Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies • Main focus on vehicle technology and fuel • Trends and projections show that these policies have not been enough to reach the targets. • Main offender is growing transport demand. www.eltis.org

23. Doomsday scenario? (4) • Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change • The Global Warming Swindle • Dr. Jansen of NASA • Public opinion is confused www.eltis.org

24. MM as a catalyst Mobility paradox Growing transport and failing policies do not have to cause doubts about the role of MM. On the contrary, growing transport demand and failing technological measures will cause an increasing demand for mobility management. Let’s be ready for it! www.eltis.org

25. MM as a catalyst (2) • Effectiveness of mobility management • Impact assessment of various policy scenarios to reduce CO2-emissions from passenger cars • (Report by Centre for European Economic Research 2006) • 3 scenarios • Scenario 1: baseline • Scenario 2: 120 g CO2/km by 2020 • Scenario 3A: 125 g CO2/km by 2020 • Scenario 3B: 125 g CO2/km + information, taxation and management measures www.eltis.org

26. MM as a catalyst (3) www.eltis.org

27. MM as a catalyst (4) www.eltis.org

28. MM as a catalyst (5) • Conclusion? • Scenario 2 and 3B generate comparable results in spite of higher permitted baseline-emission in 3B • Moreover: 3B does even better ! • - MM fortifies the effects of measures on vehicle technology and energy-efficient use of passenger cars. www.eltis.org

29. MM as a catalyst (6) • Success stories • (report of EEA 2008, conducted by the Transport Research Laboratory) • 6 major cases reviewed • Cases with quantitative measurements on CO2-reduction • Wide scope of measures www.eltis.org

30. MM as a catalyst www.eltis.org

31. MM as a catalyst (8) • Success stories • Ecodrive programme in the Netherlands: 222.000 tonnes • Speed control in Rotterdam: 1.000 tonnes (15%) • Congestion charging in London: 16,4 % • Evironmental Zone in Prague: 1.650 tonnes • Freight Consolidation Centre in London: 75 % • Teleconferencing in UK (BT): 100.000 tonnes www.eltis.org

32. MM as a catalyst (9) • Conclusions • Transferability: schemes are transferable and are already being implemented in other cities and regions as we speak • Implementation: stakeholder involvement is crucial • Co-benefits: air quality, reduced noise, reduced congestion, improvements in traffic safety www.eltis.org

33. MM as a catalyst (10) • Conclusions • - Economic benefits: technology adaptations tend to generate net costs BUT behavioural changes tend to generate net benefits ! • - Success factors: implementation of accompanying measures (mobility management), strong leadership and awareness raising • In other words: MM is a catalyst in achieving good results for measures in planning, regulation and economical measures. www.eltis.org

34. MM as a catalyst (10) • Conclusion • Growing transport = growing share of transport in GHG-emissions (from 14 % in 2006 to 21 % in 2008 according to EEA) • Growing transport and travel demand together with EU-objectives to counter climate change will cause an increase in demand for mobility measures in planning, regulation, economical situations and information. To maximize the success of implemented measures mobility management, awareness raising, stakeholder involvement and strong leadership are crucial. www.eltis.org

35. Last but not least ... • Who has yet to be convinced of the destructive role of GHG in Climate Change? • IPCC is formal about impact of GHG • ECCP (European Climate Change programme) • Dr Jansen: rebel without a cause? • Controversial opinions stick out of course, but the worldwide consensus among scientists has never been greater! www.eltis.org

36. Questions - Discussion Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

37. Questions round 1 (+/-20 minutes) What are the strengths/weaknesses of MM with regard to climate change? What are the opportunities/threats for MM with regard to climate change? www.eltis.org

38. Questions round 2 (+/-20 minutes) Building on the strengths and opportunities: • How do we accelerate the implementation of Mobility Management measures? • How do we better communicate Mobility Management measures to key stakeholders? www.eltis.org

39. Conclusions and wrap up (+/-10 minutes) • collection of notes from the different hosts • the different ideas and solutions are compiled www.eltis.org

40. Thank you for your contribution! We’ll meet again @ www.eltis.org www.eltis.org