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Coca-Cola & Vitamin water. Agenda. Financial & Accounting Highlights Valuation Marketing Analysis Recommendations. Recommendations. Continue Innovative Promotions Increase Frequency of Consumption Broaden Portfolio to Functional Foods Expand Globally (Brazil, Thailand and Vietnam).
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Agenda • Financial & Accounting Highlights • Valuation • Marketing Analysis • Recommendations
Recommendations Continue Innovative Promotions Increase Frequency of Consumption Broaden Portfolio to Functional Foods Expand Globally (Brazil, Thailand and Vietnam)
Agenda • Financial & Accounting Highlights • Valuation • Marketing Analysis • Recommendations
Accounting Highlights ? • Coca-Cola does not break out results for Vitaminwater • FIFO or average cost to value inventories • Does not disclose R&D Vitamin
Accounting Highlights • $9B in cash • Advertising 10% of revenues • Dramatic Increases in Treasury Stock • $2B Vitaminwater Goodwill (increase from $1.4B prior to acquisition) Vitamin
Coke’s Stock Price - LTM Current Price: (12/11/2009): $59.11 52 Week High/Low: ($37.44/$59.40) Average Daily Trading Volume: 10.2 M Shares Vitamin
Agenda • Financial & Accounting Highlights • Valuation • Marketing Analysis • Recommendations
Free Cash Flow - Assumptions Revenue Growth Regression (KO v. Nominal GDP) Key Cash Flow Drivers: Vitamin
Free Cash Flow - Assumptions Key Cash Flow Drivers: Revenue Growth Regression (KO v. Nominal GDP) EBIT Margin: 27.1% across all Cases Vitamin Change in Working Cap: held constant in all cases Capital Expenditures Depreciation and Amortization
Valuation - Baseline Vitamin EV/EBITDA Multiple: 13.0X, 15.0X, 17.0X Stock Valuation Range: $55.24 - $74.84 Projected Stock Valuation: $64.71 / share WACC 6.96%
Valuation - Baseline Vitamin
Valuation – Bull and Bear • Bull Case • Bear Case Stock Valuation Range: $61.57 - $75.44 Projected Stock Valuation: $68.50 / share EV/EBITDA Multiple: 13.0X, 15.0X, 17.0X WACC 6.96% Vitamin Stock Valuation Range: $54.77 - $67.02 EV/EBITDA Multiple: 13.0X, 15.0X, 17.0X Projected Stock Valuation: $60.89 / share WACC 6.96%
Agenda • Financial & Accounting Highlights • Valuation • Marketing Analysis • Recommendations
Competitor Analysis • New Products • Healthier Attributes • Higher Quantity of Healthy Attributes New Entrants • Private Label • Homemade juices • Infused water Primary Industry Competitors Suppliers Customers Substitutes Secondary and Tertiary Competitors
Competitors Sobe Life Water Propel Function Industry Primary Snapple Gatorade Iced Tea Flavored Water & Sparkling Water SubstitutesPrimary Soda Water & Sparkling Water Sobe, Fuze, Snapple, etc Substitutes Secondary Tea & Coffee Milk Powdered Drinks & Mixers
Competitor Analysis Price Lower Higher Flavor Variety More Less
Competitor Analysis Brand Signals Health Benefits Does Not Does Overall Nutritional Value Higher Lower Tastes Less Like Water Less More
Product Positioning • Positioned as a drink that both hydrates consumers while providing essential nutrients they are likely missing
Customer Needs Hierarchy • Better Healthier Person • Healthy • Energized • Refreshed • Energy Alternative Beverage • Hydration • Nourishment • Taste • Vitamin Content Nutrients • Water Sugar
Agenda • Financial & Accounting Highlights • Valuation • Marketing Analysis • Recommendations
ContinueInnovative Promotions • Lebronvs. Kobe • Facebookflavorcreator • New Moon collaboration Other Media Print
Increase Frequency of Consumption • 33% of functional beverage consumers consume on daily basis • Increase availability of larger package sizes • Introduce new package sizes
Increase Frequency of Consumption • Capture Consumers From Soda Category
Health & WellnessAwareness 65% of consumers want eat healthy Functional Water Fills The Gap Obesity On The Rise
Consumer Buying Behavior Changed • Sales of functional foods in supermarket grew 18% over 2004 to 2009
Functional Foods Refuel mixed berry snacks ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Vitamin
Global Market Share Global Water Market Share
Global Recommendations Brazil Thailand & Vietnam
Competitor Analysis Price & Variety • Averages among all competitors Nutritional Value • Each competitor was scored by various nutritional components • Weighted average score was calculated for each competitor to identify overall ranking
Taste Test Results Scale • 1 Tastes Least Like Water • 5 Tastes Most Like Water Vitaminwater Statistics • Sample Average 2.94 • Sample Std Dev 1.56 • Sample Size 33 • α = 0.05 • Confidence interval 2.39 to 3.49 • 95% confident that we are in the top 4
Signaling Health Benefits Results Scale • 1 Does Not Signal Health Benefits • 5 Signals Health Benefits Vitaminwater Statistics • Sample Average 3.97 • Sample Std Dev 1.22 • Sample Size 35 • α = 0.05 • Confidence interval 3.55 to 4.39 • 95% confident that VW is the leading brand signaling health benefits