Joseph T. Hefner, PhD, D-ABFA Michigan State University

1. A Macromorphoscopic Databank:Establishing the Statistical Analysis of Macromorphoscopic Data in Forensic Anthropology Joseph T. Hefner, PhD, D-ABFA Michigan State University

2. This project is supported by Award No. 2015-DN-BX-K012 through the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, United States Department of Justice. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Justice.

3. Forensic Anthropology… …is the examination of human skeletal remains for law enforcement agencies to help with the recovery of human remains, determine the identity of unidentified human remains, interpret trauma, and estimate time since death. Identification • Age • Sex • Ancestry • Stature

4. What are Macromorphoscopic Traits? TRADITIONAL MORPHOSCOPIC

5. What are Macromorphoscopic Traits? TRADITIONAL MORPHOSCOPIC

6. A Macromorphoscopic Databank:Establishing the Statistical Analysis of Macromorphoscopic Data in Forensic Anthropology 1883 1933 1955 1670 1906 1951 1969 Victor Chambellan S. Washburn N. Ossenberg E. A. Hooton Thomas Kerckring A. F. LeDouble Described variations in trait manifestations on the cranium and spine, but did very little beyond individual trait descriptions Building on the genetics research from mice studies, collected data on 37 “discontinuous” traits from nearly 1300 human crania. “The New Physical Anthropology”. Calls for paradigm shift and paves the way for genetic studies. First description of Kerckring's ossicle, an accessory center of ossification in the occipital bone just posterior to the foramen magnum. Establishes the Harvard Blanks, a set of data collection forms for his laboratory. First scholarly attempt to link skeletal anomalies (nonmetric traits) to anthropological research. Grünberg Studied genetic variants among mice, eventually leading to studies of human samples

7. A Macromorphoscopic Databank:Establishing the Statistical Analysis of Macromorphoscopic Data in Forensic Anthropology 1990 1994 2015 1989 1993 2009 2019 Macromorphoscopic Traits MMS Analytical Buikstra, Ubelaker Hauser and De Stafano Daubert Decision Gill and Rhine U.S. Supreme Court case, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 (1993) Projected date for the release of a free-standing analytical program for classifying unknown crania. 84 cranial traits defined, standardized, and explored for heritability and function research. Standards for data collection from human skeletal remains. Publication outlining “The Skeletal Attribution of Race”. Seminal forensic anthropology text on ancestry estimation. Macromorphoscopic Databank Standardized data collection protocol for 17 MMS traits. NIJ-funded grant to establish a central databank housing macromorphoscopic data.

8. A Macromorphoscopic Databank:Establishing the Statistical Analysis of Macromorphoscopic Data in Forensic Anthropology Purpose, Goals, and Objectives: Develop protocols for large-scale data collection; Establish a large, geographically-diverse reference database; initiate development of an analytical program to estimate ancestry from macromorphoscopic traits and provide probabilistic statements of those estimates

9. Priority I. DATA COLLECTION

10. Priority I. DATA COLLECTION

11. Priority II. REFERENCE DATABASE (MAMD)

12. Priority II. REFERENCE DATABASE (MAMD) • Currently houses data for over 7500 individuals • Populations from around the world • Contributions from universities, researchers, museum collections, and medical examiner’s offices. • Temporal distributions • Pre-, proto-, historic, 19th and 20th century birth years.

13. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM • Classification requires non-and semi-parametric methods • Artificial neural networks • K-nearest neighbor • Support vector machines • Canonical analysis of the principal coordinates • Biological Distance Analysis • Understand population history, population movements, and similarity/dissimilarity

14. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM • Cap METHOD • 91/ 90/87% CORRECT (JACKKNIFED)

15. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM Broad Classifications ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Group N AfrAustr Black Chin GuatNatAmer Thai White Tot ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- African 26 19 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 73.1 % Australian 16 1 6 1 3 1 1 2 1 37.5 % Black 241 71 30 56 20 26 5 13 20 23.2 % Chinese 49 0 0 8 32 2 4 3 0 65.3 % Guatemalan 90 1 1 10 8 26 10 7 27 28.9 % NatAmer 975 10 60 36 120 130 414 136 69 42.5 % Thai 555 12 92 51 89 44 41 187 39 33.7 % White 182 2 3 13 9 26 16 8 105 57.7 % ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM

17. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Group Classified Distance Probabilities into from Posterior Typ F Typ Chi TypR ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PacIsland**PacIsland** 0.1 0.350 1.000 1.000 0.991 (2/116) Australian 0.6 0.276 1.000 0.999 0.941 (2/17) Thai 0.8 0.254 0.998 0.998 0.998 (2/556) Chinese 2.2 0.121 0.958 0.945 0.780 (12/50) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current Case is closest to Pacific Islands -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

18. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Group Classified Distance Probabilities into from Posterior Typ F Typ Chi Typ R ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Borneo **Borneo** 12.1 0.323 ----- 0.034 0.500 (3/4) Indonesia 12.5 0.260 0.060 0.028 0.077 (37/39) SolIslands12.6 0.251 ----- 0.028 0.143 (7/7) FijiIslands14.7 0.087 0.574 0.012 0.125 (8/8) New Zealand 15.1 0.072 0.274 0.010 0.100 (10/10) Malaysia 20.0 0.006 ----- 0.001 0.200 (5/5) Sumatra 24.3 0.001 ----- 0.000 0.200 (5/5) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current Case is closest to Borneo -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

19. Priority III. ANALYTICAL PROGRAM 4/5 3 2

20. Concluding Remarks • The MMS program reduces subjectivity and standardizes data collection protocols. • The establishment of the MaMD fundamentally changes how macromorphoscopic data are implemented in forensic anthropological casework • The introduction of a large, geographically-diverse sample permits more robust (and more appropriate) statistical models • Probabilistic statements • Error rates • Verification and validation

21. I am grateful for the many contributors to the MaMD, to my two graduate students for working harder than me, and to the faculty and staff in the Department of Anthropology at Michigan State University. I would also like to acknowledge the NIJ for funding this research. Kandus C. Linde provided the photographs and editorial comments. I bear all responsibility for the content of this presentation as well as any errors or omissions.

22. For information, data contributions, and data requests, please email:anpmamd@msu.edu Questions?