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Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead

climate change, global warming, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, fossil fuels, nuclear power, carbon reduction

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Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead

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  1. Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead Oakham School 9th September 2008 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5th October 2007 N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation CRed Carbon Reduction

  2. Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead • What causes Climate Change? • Is it man made or natural? • Are there other issues we also need to consider? • Energy Security

  3. Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide 3

  4. Increasing Occurrence of Drought

  5. Increasing Occurrence of Flood

  6. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 6 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

  7. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

  8. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match 8 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

  9. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطبالشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 تغير المناخاثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years • 20 ٪تخفيض في 24 سنوات 9 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  10. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. 每一个英国人每年排放9吨 CO2 5 hot air balloons per person per year.相当于每人排放 5个热气球 In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person在发展中国家，这一水平低于1个热气球 Is this Fair?这公平吗？ “Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little.” ‘没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动微不足道 Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  11. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? Japan UK Per capita Carbon Emissions

  12. Electricity Generation i n selected Countries r

  13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 14

  14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. 15

  15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands, one of UK’s first off shore wind farms has had major technical problems but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 17

  17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

  18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

  19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

  20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  21. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  22. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 MWh per annum from 1 barrier Sufficient for twice the houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

  23. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  24. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewablesi.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL • our power stations NOW - • Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  25. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? • the North Norfolk Coal Field? • Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

  26. Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

  27. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • Standby on electrical appliances • 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons • at a cost of over £6 per year • Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya 28

  28. The Behavioural Dimension • Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. • Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. • Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. • Education/Awareness is important 29

  29. Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%% New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle 30

  30. Carbon Emissions from Train Travel Energy Field Course 2007 Travelling en route to Orkney To be more environmentally friendly it would need 6 people in a small family car or 8 - 9 in a People Carrier Peterborough - Edinburgh Edinburgh - Aberdeen Norwich -Peterborough Analysing Results on Journey

  31. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting

  32. Conclusions • Global Warming and Energy Security issues will affect us all - in next few decades. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures Governments may take. • Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative use of renewable energy are also important. • 全球变暖和能源安全将在今后几十年影响我们 • 节约能源、在本地发电以及改变我们的行为 • 每个人可以做很多事情针对能源的使用，政府也可采取技术措施。 • 统一协调地对建筑进行设计，创新地使用可再生能源也很重要。

  33. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.“ （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。” LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

  34. Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

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