Knowledge gaps Challenges for adaptation in agriculture

1. Knowledge gaps Challenges for adaptation in agriculture Alexandre Meybeck, FAO Adaptation Knowledge Day 5: Climate Change Adaptation Gaps Bonn Gustav-Stresemann-Institut9 June 2014

2. What effects of climate change on these ?

3. Pollinators • 80% of flowering plant species are highly dependent on animal vectors for successful reproduction

4. Rift Valley Fever (RVF)Impact of climate change • Floods • Hatching of aedes eggs • High temperatures • Increase feeding frequency • Increase egg production • Decrease the duration of development cycle • Mosquito density increase

5. Combining biophysical and socioeconomic futures • With high population growth and low income growth avrage kilocalorie availability declines in al regions by 2050. • CC increases the number of malnourished children by about 10% as compared to no CC. • Trade flow changes. • Models do not take into account effects of increased variability and extreme events; nor of adaptation. (HLPE 2012)

7. Systems at different scales Gitz & Meybeck 2012

8. Increasing the general resilience of food systems • Consider adaptation to CC as part of the broader need to build a more resilient food system • In the perspective of having to produce more food • Consider the needs and rights of farmers • Protect vulnerable groups and communities from major price swings • Lack of sustainability in food production is a key threat to resilience (HLPE 2012)

9. Building adaptive capacity to changes: address uncertainty Diversification Animal genetics Genetic resources

10. Access to knowledge is key for farmers, fishers and foresters • Lack of data, knowledge and accuracy of climate change models make it difficult to identify location specific changes in climate and appropriate adaptation actions. • Need to address present risks and vulnerabilities and restore the natural resource base and ecosystem services on which the agriculture and other sectors depend • Rural communities with access to knowledge and climate information services can unlock their potential to climate change

11. Climate information servicesDecision tools for prioritizing investment options Risk management Early warning systems Low emissions development pathways Type of support to practitioners needed

12. Agricultural sector adaptation: country experiences Building the evidence base: what are the recent observable changes to climate? • Use rainfall and temperature data to identify change in rain onset; peak temperatures • Link to household level data to explore hoe farmers responded • CC changed had major impact on adoption of conservation agriculture

13. Manage risks • Monitoring • Vulnerability assessment • Identification of (ex-ante) damage reduction measures • Early action • Reparation of losses to productive assets

14. Information dissemination: priority actions • Seasonal forecasts: Extended coverage, better “translation, and prompt linking of seasonal forecast info to key outlets (youth, extension, women’s groups, etc.) • Extension: More attention/financing/innovation in extension role in information dissemination to support agricultural technology and use of ICT • Crowd sourcing to improve data sources (e.g. IIASA global cropland map) • Enhancing farmer to farmer information Flows particularly in context of adaptation (e.g. varietal adaptation; indigenous practices)

15. Methods and tools for CCA: FAO’s contribution • Through its framework programme for Climate Change Adaptation (FAO-Adapt) FAO is committed to support countries in their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) within the agricultural sectors. • FAO provides a number of useful methods and tools for undertaking various assessments and monitoring which provide fundamental information for planning of CCA practices.

16. Local Climate Estimate Tool Updated version of FAOCLIM database of almost 30 000 stations worldwide

17. COYOTE: CrOp Yield Estimation - An operational crop monitoring and forecasting system - Can be tailored to suit countries’ specific requirements

18. MOSAICC’s 4 disciplines: Simulation of the country’s hydrology and estimation of water resources Economic impact and analysis of policy response at national level Crop yield projections under climate scenarios (WABAL and AQUACROP) Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over weather stations networks (AR4 and AR5 data available)

19. Overcoming Barriers to Adoption for Better Project Success: The case of Zambia (EPIC project) Practices: Conservation Farming practices: minimum soil disturbance (MSD) and crop rotation(CR) • MSD adoption 5-6%, significant dis-adoption: ~90% of MSD adopters • Adoption intensity is significantly higher for smallholders Adoption: Strongest determinants: Variability of rainfall, Delays in the onset of rains, Extension information Yield Impacts: Average positive impacts of modern input use are conditioned by climatic variables, whereas that of legume intercropping is robust to shocks. Timely access to fertilizer is the most robust determinant of yields and resilience. • Extension information  adaptation benefits key to determining “best options”

20. Emerging Evidence: Malawi (EPIC project) • Practices:improved maize varieties, inorganic and organic fertilizers (OF), legume intercropping (LI), and agro-forestry (AF) (e.g. Faidherbiaalbida) • Adoption:Important determinants: • Land tenure positively correlate with OF,LI, AF • Drought proneness positively correlate with AF&LI • Yields: • Improved seed, legume Intercropping & agro-forestry positively correlate with productivity • Significant synergies among all three practices

21. Research challenges for adaptation • Need for research, including more public research and link with private • Engage with the poor and vulnerable to address their needs • Research to consider broader objectives than yield and include resilience, stability, efficiency in the use of water,… and consider neglected species • Research on best agronomic practices • Research on fisheries • Monitor and evaluate adaptation practices (HLPE 2012)

22. THANK YOU