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What’s New in Verification? A Verification Briefing for the SAWS IV Workshop October 26, 2011

What’s New in Verification? A Verification Briefing for the SAWS IV Workshop October 26, 2011 Chuck Kluepfel National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, Maryland 301-713-0090 x132 Charles.Kluepfel@noaa.gov. Starter Videos.

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What’s New in Verification? A Verification Briefing for the SAWS IV Workshop October 26, 2011

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  1. What’s New in Verification? A Verification Briefing for the SAWS IV Workshop October 26, 2011 Chuck Kluepfel National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, Maryland 301-713-0090 x132 Charles.Kluepfel@noaa.gov Starter Videos http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1686664/fedex_planes_dodging_storm/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E_Z_Ve-ayA 1

  2. Part 1 Lead Time Measurements 2

  3. History • NOAA (GSD) was contracted to measure the lead time with which NWS TAFs predict the onset and cessation of IFR conditions (2-category, IFR vs. VFR). • This software package has been available thru the NWS Performance Management Web site for 2 years. • Next 6 months: Joint NWS/FAA TRWG (Traffic Flow Management Weather Requirements Working Group) is directing the NWS Performance Branch to measure TAF performance, using more specific Decision Support requirements. 3

  4. GSD Software • Allows for tight and loose accuracy standards. • Verifies IFR onsets similar to the way NWS verifies warnings. • LT = IFR onset time - TAF issuance time. • Uses the TAF with the longest LT. 4

  5. Example of an IFR Onset at 1800 5

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  9. TRWG Decision Support Software Requirements have just been defined. Code writing should begin soon. Very specific requirements set by TRWG. Measure NWS skill in forecasting the Onset and Cessation of events critical to operations. 9

  10. TRWG Decision Support Software Measure the Onset and Cessation of IFR (Phase 1) VFR (Phase 1) MVFR (Phase 1) 10

  11. TRWG Decision Support Software Measure the Onset and Cessation of IFR (Phase 1) VFR (Phase 1) MVFR (Phase 1) Wind shifts (Phase 2) Wind speed changes (Phase 2) 11

  12. TRWG Decision Support Software Measure the Onset and Cessation of IFR (Phase 1) VFR (Phase 1) MVFR (Phase 1) Wind shifts (Phase 2) Wind speed changes (Phase 2) Thunderstorms (Phase 3) Freezing precipitation (Phase 3) 12

  13. TRWG Decision Support Software The Onset of these conditions: IFR (Onset - always deterioration) VFR (Onset - always improvement or clearing) 13

  14. TRWG Decision Support Software Measure the Onset and Cessation of the Following Events IFR VFR MVFR (from IFR – Onset represents clearing) MVFR (from VFR – Onset represents deterioration) 14

  15. TRWG Decision Support Software 15

  16. TRWG Decision Support Software 16

  17. TRWG Decision Support Software 17

  18. TRWG Decision Support Software 18

  19. TRWG Decision Support Software 19

  20. TRWG Decision Support SoftwareMethodology For each hit, determine whether the forecast timing error met the TRWG requirements for scoring a POD hit: For 1-hour LT: ± 15 minutes For 2-hour LT: ± 15 minutes For 4-hour LT: ± 30 minutes For 6-hour LT: ± 45 minutes For 8-hour LT: ± 60 minutes 20

  21. TRWG Decision Support SoftwareMethodology 21

  22. TRWG Decision Support SoftwareMethodology 22

  23. TRWG Decision Support SoftwareMethodology 23

  24. TRWG Decision Support Case Study 7 Days (5.5 active) at one terminal 24

  25. TRWG Decision Support 25

  26. TRWG Decision Support 26

  27. Part 2 CWSU Verification 27

  28. CWSU Verification 28

  29. Part 3 Traditional Stats on Demand Results 29

  30. Traditional Stats for Modified Southwest United States: Colorado New Mexico Utah Arizona Nevada California Minus these WFOs: San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco 30

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  32. Modified SW US – Fiscal Year 2011Scheduled 3-6 hr IFR and Below Prevailing GFS LAMP (569K - 264K) K ÷ (511K – 482K) ~ 10.5 The 3-6 hr GFS LAMP false alarmed over 10 times for every additional hit it got over the forecasters! 32

  33. WFOs MTR, LOX, SGX FY 2011Scheduled 3-6 hr IFR and Below Prevailing GFS LAMP 33

  34. WFOs PSR, TWC, EPZ FY 2011Scheduled 3-6 hr IFR and Below Prevailing GFS LAMP 34

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