Groundrules, Bases, and Definitions to Scope “The Next Step”

1. Groundrules, Bases, and Definitions to Scope “The Next Step” L. Waganer The Boeing Company 3-4 April 2007 UCSD Project Meeting

2. Design L Construction Design L Construction Operation Operation 3 y typ ‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 ‘50 ‘60 Timing of The Next StepMinimal Risk Approach • Starting basis will be reference ITER/DIII-D physics and engineering design and machine performance results (Design = 6 y, Lic = 2 y, Constr = 8 y, approximate) assuming positive results • Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction take approximately the same as ITER construction and operation for each phase • Further, the economic and political climate must be favorable • To start Demo construction by 2050 and operation before 2060, the TNS must start design by 2023, construction by 2031, and operation by 2039 Start TNS Design Start Demo Design Start Constr Start Power Core Constr Q = 5: 500 MW TNS Demo 400 sec ITER Construction Current Drive ITER Operation H Plasma D DT Plasma Extended Operation

3. Design L Construction Design L Construction Operation Operation ‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 ‘50 ‘60 Timing of The Next StepMinimal Technical Risk - Aggressive Design, Construction Schedule • Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction phases can be shortened by 25% (16 y to 12 y), but maintain same interval between machines • This allows Demo to start construction by 2044 and operation before 2050; also TNS can start design by 2023, construction by 2029, and operation by 2035 (compared to 2060 in base case) • This is really aggressive for design, licensing, and construction, especially in the US. Start TNS Design Start Demo Design Start Constr Start Power Core Constr Q = 5: 500 MW TNS Demo 400 sec ITER Current Drive H Plasma D DT Plasma Extended Operation

4. Design L Construction Design L Construction Operation Operation 1 y typ ‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 ‘50 ‘60 Timing of The Next StepHigher Technical Risk Approach – Nominal Design, Construction Schedule • Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction phases are nominal • Shorten the time between start of operation and start of next machine design to 1 year – higher technical risk solution • This allows Demo to start construction by 2046 and operation before 2054; also TNS can start design by 2021, construction by 2029, and operation by 2037 (compared to 2060 in base case) • This is really aggressive for design, licensing, and construction, especially in the US. Start TNS Design Start Demo Design Start Constr Start Power Core Constr Q = 5: 500 MW TNS Demo 400 sec ITER Current Drive H Plasma D DT Plasma Extended Operation

5. Discussion On Timing Options • Nominal approach seems too long for Demo • Minimal or no basis for shortening design, licensing or construction times • Minimal overlap of operational time with design introduces a significant technical risk if the TNS and Demo design depends on prior results. • IF TNS and Demo designs are significant advancements from prior designs AND there is confidence in the ITER or TNS yet-to-be-proven results, then the risk may be acceptable.

6. Determining the Technology, Physics, Industrial and Organizational Needs • Current state: The most relevant tokamak experimental reactor is being built outside the US • Limited technology transfer back to US • Minimal or no infrastructure to develop a technology, physics, industrial, or organizational basis to develop, build or operate a large facility • DIII-D will probably not be operating in a suitable time frame to influence the TNS preliminary and final design and will not provide operating experience • The US experience hiatus to TNS is on the order of 30-40 years since a large US fusion experiment has been built. • Realization: Our study can initiate efforts directed toward certain technologies, but TNS will be a green-field approach with new people developing the design.

7. Assumptions, Groundrules, Definitions • ITER: It is successful; US in for a 10% role; results will be shared; but technology basis will be generally specific to country interests • Post-ITER: All development work will be country-based; limited partnerships may occur to foster mutual, high cost and high risk developments • US Demo: • Will be full or nearly-full sized (1-1.5 GWe) electrical power plant to demonstrate economic, safe, and reliable power production • Funded by: a) US Gov, b) Consortium of utilities, or c) combination • Operated by: a)…., b)….., or c)…… • The TNS: • Will be funded and operated by the US Gov or a limited partnership of a few governments • Role of ARIES-TNS will be(?) to identify needs to be satisfied by the operation of a TNS to reduce the performance, programmatic, and operational risks for Demo

8. Likely Demo Metrics (D + ID Capital Cost) x FCR + Fuel + O&M (Gross Electric x Effcy – Recir Power) x Avail • Cost of Electricity = • Safety • No evacuation plan required (no runaway plasma condition) • Minimal hazardous materials • Low tritium inventory • Minimal pressurized gases • etc • Environmental Impact • Low level radioactive hazardous waste, high volume • Minimal conventional hazardous waste • Nominal site impact • Minimal impact on limited resources (Lithium, Beryllium) • No CO2 releases • Minimal traffic impact (all fuel processing on site) • Balance of Trade Benefits (reduced oil dependency)

9. Likely TNS Metrics • Reduction of Technology risk (engineering, manufacturing, operational, applicability of design approach, software, and hardware to Demo) • Reduction of Physics risk (beta, control, disruptions, applicability of physics basis to Demo ) • Reduction of Industrial Risk (involvement and maturation of infrastructure, limited financial risk, likelihood of a significant role) • Reduction of Organizational Risk (management of large multi-national organizations) • Cost of Electricity projection (all factors considered) • Safety Impact demonstration • Environmental Impact demonstration • Balance of Trade Benefits demonstration of validity • Supports US Economic Trade Policies • Supports US and World Environmental Initiatives

10. Backup Slides

11. Present ITER Construction Schedule Previous Slide

12. Planned ITER Operational Schedule Previous Slide