Financial Analysis, Planning and Forecasting Theory and Application

1. Financial Analysis, Planning and ForecastingTheory and Application Chapter 2 Accounting Information, Regression Analysis, and Financial Management By Alice C. Lee San Francisco State University John C. Lee J.P. Morgan Chase Cheng F. Lee Rutgers University

2. Outline • 2.1 Introduction • 2.2 Financial statement: A brief review • 2.3 Critique of accounting information • 2.4 Static ratio analysis and its extension • 2.5 Cost-volume-profit analysis and its applications • 2.6 Accounting income vs. economic income • 2.7 Summary • Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression • Appendix 2B. Instrumental variables and two-stage least squares

3. 2.1Introduction Table 2.1 Consolidated Balance Sheets of Johnson & Johnson Corporation and Consolidated Subsidiaries (dollars in millions)

4. 2.2 Financial statement: A Brief Review • Balance Sheet • Income Statement • Retained Earnings Statement • Statement of changes in financial position • Annual vs. Quarterly Financial Data

5. Income Statement Table 2.2: Consolidated Income Statements of Johnson & Johnson Corporation and Subsidiaries (dollars in millions)

6. Statement of Equity Table 2.3: Consolidated Statements of Equity of Johnson & Johnson Corporation and Subsidiaries (dollars in millions)

7. Statement of Equity (cont’d) Table 2.3: Consolidated Statements of Equity of Johnson & Johnson Corporation and Subsidiaries (dollars in millions) (Cont’d)

8. Statement of Cash Flows Table 2.4: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow of Johnson & Johnson Corporation and Consolidated Subsidiaries, December 31, 2000, December 31, 2001, December 31, 2002, December 31, 2003, December 31, 2004, December 31, 2005, December 31, 2006. Annual vs. Quarterly Financial Data

9. 2.3 Critique of accounting information • Criticism • Methods for improvement a) Use of Alternative Information b) Statistical Adjustments c) Application of Finance and Economic Theories

10. 2.4 Static ratio analysis and its extension • Static determination of financial ratios • Dynamic analysis of financial ratios • Statistical distribution of financial ratios

11. Static determination of financial ratios Table 2.5: Company ratios period 2003-2004

12. Static determination of financial ratios Table 2.5: Company ratios period 2003-2004 (Continued)

13. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios (2.1) where 0j1, and j = A partial adjustment coefficient; Yj,t = Firm’s jth financial ratio period t; Yj,t-1 = Firm’s jth financial ratio period t-1; and Y*j,t = Firm’s jth financial ratio target in period t,

14. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios where Zj,t = Yj,t - Yj,t-1; Wj,t-1 = Xj,t-1 - Yj,t-1; Aj and Bj = Regression parameters, and j,t = The error term.

15. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios Z′j,t = A′j + B′jW′j,t-1 + ′j,t, (2.5) where Z′j,t = log (Yj,t) - log (Yj,t-1); W′j,t-1 = log (Xj,t-1) - log (Yj,t-1); and ′j,t = The Error term.

16. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios

17. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios Table 2.6: Dynamic adjustment ratio regression results * Partial adjustment coefficient significant at 95% level

18. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios Table 2.7: Ratio correlation coefficient matrix

19. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios Z1,t = A0 +A1Z2,t + A2W1 + 1,t, (2.9a) Z2,t = B0 + B1Z1,t + B2W2 + 2,t. (2.9b) where Ai, Bi (i = 0, 1, 2) are coefficients, 1 and 2 are error terms, and Z1,t = Individual firm’s current ratio in period t - individual firm’s current ratio in period t-1; Z2,t = Individual firm’s leverage ratio in period t - individual firm’s leverage ratio period t-1; W1,t = Industry average current ratio in period t-1 - individual firm’s current ratio period t-1; W2,t = Industry average leverage ratio in period t-1 - individual firm’s leverage ratio in period t-1.

20. Dynamic Analysis of Financial Ratios Table 2.8: Johnson & Johnson empirical results for the simultaneous equation system

21. Statistical Distribution of Financial Ratios where  and 2 are the population mean and variance, respectively, and e and  are given constants; that is,  = 3.14159 and e = 2.71828.

22. Statistical Distribution of Financial Ratios There is a direct relationship between the normal distribution and the log-normal distribution. If Y is log-normally distributed, then X = log Y is normally distributed. Following this definition, the mean and the variance of Y can be defined as: where exp represents an exponential with base e.

23. Statistical Distribution of Financial Ratios

24. 2.5 COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATIONS • Deterministic analysis • Stochastic analysis

25. 2.5.1 Deterministic Analysis Operating Profit = EBIT = Q(P－V)－F, (2.12) where Q = Quantity of goods sold; P = Price per unit sold; V = Variable cost per unit sold; F = Total amount of fixed costs; and P - V = Contribution margin.

26. 2.5.1 Deterministic Analysis (cont’d) If operating profit is equal to zero, Eq. (2.12) implies that Q(P-V)-F=0 or that Q(P-V)=F, that is, Equation (2.13) represents the break-even quantity, or that quantity of sales at which fixed costs are just covered. The definition of the degree of operating leverage (DOL) is, Based upon the definition of linear break-even quantity defined in Eq. (2.13), the degree of operating leverage can be rewritten as

27. 2.5.2 Stochastic Analysis In reality, net profit is a random variable because the quantity used in the analysis should be the quantity sold, which is unknown and random, rather than the quantity produced, which is internally determined. This is the simplest form of stochastic CVP analysis; for there is only one stochastic variable and one need not be concerned about independence among the variables. The distribution of sales is shown graphically in Fig. 2.5.

28. 2.6 ACCOUNTING INCOME VS. ECONOMIC INCOME Et = At + Pt, (2.17) where Et = Economic income, At = Accounting earnings, and Pt = Proxy errors.

29. 2.7 SUMMARY In this chapter, the usefulness of accounting information in financial analysis is conceptually and analytically evaluated. Both statistical methods and regression analysis techniques are used to show how accounting information can be used to perform active financial analysis for the pharmaceutical industry. In these analyses, static ratio analysis is generalized to dynamic ratio analysis. The necessity of using simultaneous-equation technique in conducting dynamic financial ratio analysis is also demonstrated in detail. In addition, both deterministic and stochastic CVP analyses are examined. The potential applications of CVP analysis in financial analysis and planning are discussed in some detail. Overall, this chapter gives readers a good understanding of basic accounting information and econometric methods, which are needed for financial analysis and planning.

30. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression 2. A.1 INTRODUCTION 2. A.2 SIMPLE REGRESSION Variance of Multiple Regression

31. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression (2.A.1a) (2.A.1b) (2.A.2a) (2.A.2b)

32. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression (2.A.3) (2.A.4) (2.A.5a) (2.A.5b)

33. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression (2.A.6a) (2.A.6b)

34. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression (2.A.7) (2.A.7a)

35. Appendix 2A. Simple regression and multiple regression (2.A.8) (2.A.8a)

36. Variance of Equation (2.A.7a) implies that: (2.A.7b) Where

37. Variance of (2.A.7c) (2.A.9)

38. Variance of

39. Variance of (2.A.10) (2.A.11) (2.A.12)

40. Multiple Regression (2.A.13a) The error sum of squares can be defined as: Where

41. Multiple Regression (2.A.14a) (2.A.14b) (2.A.14c)

42. Multiple Regression 0 = na + b(0) + c(0), (2.A.15a) (2.A.15b) (2.A.15c)

43. Multiple Regression (2.A.16a) (2.A.16b) (2.A.17)

44. Multiple Regression (2.A.13b) (2.A.18) (2.A.19)

45. Multiple Regression (2.A.20) where TSS = Total sum of squares; ESS = Residual sum of squares; and RSS = Regression sum of squares.

46. Multiple Regression (2.A.21) (2.A.22) where and k = the number of independent variables.

47. Multiple Regression (2.A.23) where F(k-1, n-k) represents F-statistic with k－1 and n－k degrees of freedom.

48. Appendix 2B. Instrumental Variables and Two-Stage Least Squares 2. B.1 ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE PROBLEM 2. B.2 INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES 2. B.3 TWO-STAGE, LEAST-SQUARE

49. 2. B.1 ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE PROBLEM (2.B.1) (2.B.2) (2.B.3)

50. 2. B.1 ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE PROBLEM (2.B.4) (2.B.5)