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COFECHA

COFECHA. COFECHA. Statistical Crossdating. Cutting edge, high-powered statistics ensure precision in yearly assignments. Evolution: beginnings in late 1970s with Richard Holmes creating algorithms using correlation techniques. COFECHA. Statistical Crossdating.

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COFECHA

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  1. COFECHA

  2. COFECHA • Statistical Crossdating • Cutting edge, high-powered statistics ensure precision in yearly assignments. • Evolution: beginnings in late 1970s with Richard Holmes creating algorithms using correlation techniques.

  3. COFECHA • Statistical Crossdating • What is a correlation coefficient? • Extremely important in geography, dendrochronology, and practically all sciences…

  4. COFECHA • Correlation Coefficients

  5. COFECHA • Correlation Coefficients

  6. COFECHA • Correlation Coefficients = r-values -1.0 < r < +1.0

  7. COFECHA • Correlation Coefficients and Statistical Significance

  8. COFECHA • Correlation Coefficients

  9. COFECHA • Welcome to COFECHA (Spanish for “crossdate”): • Analyzes crossdating accuracy of all measured series. • First breaks down each series into shorter segment lengths (for example, 40 yrs). • Compares each segment with the same calendar segment from the average of all other series via correlation techniques. • The analysis then shifts by half the segment length and compares the next 40 yr segment. • Continues until the end of the series being tested.

  10. COFECHA • COFECHA: • A segment that falls below the statistical significance threshold is flagged by COFECHA. • It then attempts to place the errant segment in an alternate position via date adjustments. • Most common alternate positions/date adjustments are ??? • Prints out diagnostics that let the user zero in on the possible ring causing the errant segment. • Interseries correlation coefficient is the key benchmark of crossdating quality: 0.40.

  11. [] Dendrochronology Program Library Run TEST Program COF 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25860 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS File of DATED series: fl003.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 40 years lagged successively by 20 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3665 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: LEN 1 O'Leno State Park QUST Text in file: LEN 2 Florida Post Oak 15M 2955-08237 __ 1852 1993 Text in file: LEN 3 D.Stahle M.Cleaveland Time span of Master dating series is 1852 to 1993 142 years Continuous time span is 1852 to 1993 142 years Portion with two or more series is 1854 to 1993 140 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 24 *C* *O* Master series 1852 1993 142 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 2540 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 2538 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .509 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .266 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 26 *A* *** Mean length of series 105.8 *** ****************************************

  12. PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len01b 1 1866 1993 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===========> . . len01a 2 1864 1988 125 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . len02a 3 1904 1993 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len02b 4 1868 1993 126 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============> . . len03a 5 1852 1989 138 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . len03b 6 1854 1992 139 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . leno3c 7 1877 1993 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len04b 8 1867 1990 124 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. . len05a 9 1875 1993 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len05b 10 1866 1993 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . len06a 11 1904 1993 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========> . . len06b 12 1880 1974 95 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . len07a 13 1896 1993 98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . len08a 14 1857 1993 137 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len08b 15 1863 1993 131 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. . len09a 16 1869 1993 125 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . len09b 17 1914 1993 80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . len10a 18 1900 1993 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========> . . len12a 19 1896 1983 88 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==========> . . len12b 20 1866 1975 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . len41a 21 1920 1993 74 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . len41b 22 1913 1993 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . len42a 23 1921 1974 54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===> . . len42b 24 1920 1968 49 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

  13. PART 3: Master Dating Series: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1900 .063 17 1950 .657 24 1901 .494 17 1951 .555 24 1852 2.002 1 1902 -.113 17 1952 -.831 24 1853 1.009 1 1903 1.698 17 1953 -.655 24 1854 1.004 2 1904 .135 19 1954 -.016 24 1855 -.803 2 1905 -.112 19 1955 -.138 24 1856 .286 2 1906 -.458 19 1956 -.217 24 1857 -3.758 3 1907 .349 19 1957 .213 24 1858 -.490 3 1908 -2.089 19 1958 1.566 24 1859 .469 3 1909 1.096 19 1959 .794 24 1860 1.638 3 1910 1.073 19 1960 .388 24 1861 .473 3 1911 1.236 19 1961 -.127 24 1862 2.302 3 1912 .904 19 1962 -.198 24 1863 1.012 4 1913 .021 20 1963 -.465 24 1864 1.003 5 1914 .243 21 1964 -1.427 24 1865 -.631 5 1915 -1.560 21 1965 .216 24 1866 -.700 8 1916 -2.074 21 1966 1.837 24 1867 1.082 9 1917 -.515 21 1967 .161 24 1868 .111 10 1918 .653 21 1968 .099 24 1869 .582 11 1919 .315 21 1969 .048 23 1870 -.480 11 1920 .070 23 1970 -1.175 23 1871 -1.222 11 1921 -.735 24 1971 1.009 23 1872 -1.822 11 1922 -.392 24 1972 -.007 23 1873 -1.108 11 1923 1.859 24 1973 .695 23 1874 -.455 11 1924 1.360 24 1974 -.791 23 1875 -.018 12 1925 .001 24 1975 .284 21 1876 -.091 12 1926 -.325 24 1976 -.515 20 1877 .264 13 1927 -1.201 24 1977 -.293 20 1878 -.958 13 1928 .579 24 1978 -.029 20 1879 .618 13 1929 -.192 24 1979 -.940 20 1880 .030 14 1930 .345 24 1980 .439 20 1881 -.287 14 1931 .015 24 1981 -2.003 20 1882 1.810 14 1932 -3.742 24 1982 -.501 20 1883 1.813 14 1933 .256 24 1983 .192 20 1884 .378 14 1934 1.136 24 1984 .621 19 1885 -.139 14 1935 -.025 24 1985 .805 19 1886 -.742 14 1936 .485 24 1986 -.313 19 1887 -1.367 14 1937 -.823 24 1987 -1.825 19 1888 -.372 14 1938 .002 24 1988 .827 19 1889 -1.317 14 1939 .959 24 1989 -.507 18 1890 1.829 14 1940 1.548 24 1990 1.355 17 1891 .558 14 1941 -.920 24 1991 .535 16 1892 .923 14 1942 -.190 24 1992 .917 16 1893 -.386 14 1943 -.201 24 1993 -.659 15 1894 -.299 14 1944 -.575 24 1895 .273 14 1945 -.894 24 1896 -.090 16 1946 .074 24 1897 -.314 16 1947 -.934 24 1898 -1.708 16 1948 .113 24 1899 -1.109 16 1949 -.393 24

  14. PART 4: Master Bar Plot: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1900-----@ 1950--------C 1901-------B 1951--------B 1852----------H 1902----@ 1952-c 1853---------D 1903----------G 1953--c 1854---------D 1904------A 1954-----@ 1855-c 1905----@ 1955----a 1856------A 1906---b 1956----a 1857o 1907-------A 1957------A 1858--b 1908h 1958----------F 1859-------B 1909---------D 1959--------C 1860----------G 1910---------D 1960-------B 1861-------B 1911---------E 1961----a 1862----------I 1912---------D 1962----a 1863---------D 1913-----@ 1963---b 1864---------D 1914------A 1964f 1865--c 1915f 1965------A 1866--c 1916h 1966----------G 1867---------D 1917--b 1967------A 1868-----@ 1918--------C 1968-----@ 1869--------B 1919------A 1969-----@ 1870--b 1920-----@ 1970-e 1871-e 1921--c 1971---------D 1872g 1922---b 1972-----@ 1873-d 1923----------G 1973--------C 1874---b 1924---------E 1974-c 1875-----@ 1925-----@ 1975------A 1876----@ 1926---a 1976--b 1877------A 1927-e 1977---a 1878-d 1928--------B 1978-----@ 1879--------B 1929----a 1979-d 1880-----@ 1930-------A 1980-------B 1881---a 1931-----@ 1981h 1882----------G 1932o 1982--b 1883----------G 1933------A 1983------A 1884-------B 1934---------E 1984--------B 1885----a 1935-----@ 1985--------C 1886--c 1936-------B 1986---a 1887-e 1937-c 1987g 1888---a 1938-----@ 1988--------C 1889-e 1939---------D 1989--b 1890----------G 1940----------F 1990---------E 1891--------B 1941-d 1991-------B 1892---------D 1942----a 1992---------D 1893---b 1943----a 1993--c 1894---a 1944--b 1895------A 1945-d 1896----@ 1946-----@ 1897---a 1947-d 1898g 1948-----@ 1899-d 1949---b

  15. PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 40-year dated segments, lagged 20 years Flags: A = correlation under .3665 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1879 1899 1919 1939 1959 1979 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 len01b 1866 1993 .57 .66 .32B .26A .57 .63 2 len01a 1864 1988 .21A .29B .70 .78 .49 .60 3 len02a 1904 1993 .46 .31A .38 .50 4 len02b 1868 1993 .44 .63 .58 .53 .60 .48 5 len03a 1852 1989 .73 .68 .68 .67 .62 .54 .61 6 len03b 1854 1992 .76 .71 .78 .78 .71 .55 .59 7 leno3c 1877 1993 .75 .75 .77 .66 .44 .34A 8 len04b 1867 1990 .45 .65 .44 .37 .62 .62 9 len05a 1875 1993 .50 .58 .50 .53 .55 .57 10 len05b 1866 1993 .40 .71 .72 .54 .21B .37 11 len06a 1904 1993 .56 .37 .29A .40 12 len06b 1880 1974 .53 .52 .30A .28B 13 len07a 1896 1993 .62 .67 .62 .49 .61 14 len08a 1857 1993 .54 .55 .63 .84 .74 .49 .58 15 len08b 1863 1993 .46 .67 .76 .53 .13B .22B 16 len09a 1869 1993 .48 .61 .55 .34A .34A .32A 17 len09b 1914 1993 .40 .41 .23B .26B 18 len10a 1900 1993 .55 .66 .27B .28B 19 len12a 1896 1983 .61 .63 .68 .54 .34A 20 len12b 1866 1975 .33A .36A .54 .50 .33B 21 len41a 1920 1993 .58 .39 .38 22 len41b 1913 1993 .64 .67 .35A .32A 23 len42a 1921 1974 .65 .14B 24 len42b 1920 1968 .55 .54 Av segment correlation .67 .50 .61 .60 .54 .41 .45

  16. PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 40-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year ==================================================================================================================================== len01b 1866 to 1993 128 years Series 1 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1900 1939 6 .26 .01 .15 -.15 .14 .04 -.11 -.24 -.20 -.29 .32| .20 -.07 .01 .02 -.18 .34* .09 .08 -.09 -.11 1920 1959 0 .10 .23 .01 -.25 .10 .20 .09 -.10 -.11 -.25 .26* .12 -.23 .02 .02 -.15 .25 .05 .16 -.29 -.17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .485) is: Lower 1932> -.095 1880< -.015 1987> -.014 1945> -.013 1922> -.011 1867< -.009 Higher 1981 .034 1908 .017 1900 to 1939 segment: Lower 1932> -.278 1922> -.035 1910< -.023 1938< -.014 1928< -.011 1917> -.011 Higher 1908 .092 1903 .054 1920 to 1959 segment: Lower 1932> -.286 1945> -.035 1922> -.027 1938< -.014 1928< -.013 1956< -.007 Higher 1941 .055 1958 .050 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1931 1932 4.6 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1932 +4.7 SD PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 40-year dated segments, lagged 20 years Flags: A = correlation under .3665 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1879 1899 1919 1939 1959 1979 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 len01b 1866 1993 .57 .66 .32B .26A .57 .63

  17. PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 14:50 Tue 18 Oct 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 len01b 1866 1993 128 6 2 .485 .79 2.30 .328 .586 .275 2.69 .381 -.044 1 2 len01a 1864 1988 125 6 2 .540 .77 2.24 .377 .664 .291 2.70 .460 -.077 1 3 len02a 1904 1993 90 4 1 .409 .66 1.32 .221 .756 .189 2.71 .447 .031 3 4 len02b 1868 1993 126 6 0 .506 .96 2.06 .437 .780 .244 2.61 .484 .021 1 5 len03a 1852 1989 138 7 0 .651 .85 2.12 .407 .646 .312 2.67 .400 -.028 1 6 len03b 1854 1992 139 7 0 .686 1.11 2.50 .510 .730 .261 2.76 .470 -.008 3 7 leno3c 1877 1993 117 6 1 .597 1.15 2.35 .487 .756 .223 2.83 .532 -.067 2 8 len04b 1867 1990 124 6 0 .512 1.19 3.53 .629 .767 .249 2.81 .564 -.008 4 9 len05a 1875 1993 119 6 0 .537 .93 2.71 .475 .724 .307 2.76 .608 -.027 1 10 len05b 1866 1993 128 6 1 .496 .85 2.85 .422 .569 .293 3.12 .570 .053 1 11 len06a 1904 1993 90 4 1 .438 .80 1.31 .197 .600 .180 2.77 .454 -.012 1 12 len06b 1880 1974 95 4 2 .372 .98 2.59 .430 .792 .186 2.38 .318 -.029 1 13 len07a 1896 1993 98 5 0 .592 1.00 2.75 .504 .794 .254 2.72 .434 -.062 1 14 len08a 1857 1993 137 7 0 .627 .93 3.02 .367 .585 .253 2.65 .343 -.019 1 15 len08b 1863 1993 131 6 2 .464 1.00 2.95 .383 .508 .257 2.90 .538 -.022 1 16 len09a 1869 1993 125 6 3 .363 1.18 2.91 .611 .819 .266 2.48 .385 -.048 1 17 len09b 1914 1993 80 4 2 .333 1.41 4.27 .831 .730 .285 2.80 .495 .027 1 18 len10a 1900 1993 94 4 2 .410 1.13 3.86 .658 .781 .252 2.92 .508 -.113 1 19 len12a 1896 1983 88 5 1 .504 1.63 12.40 1.297 .195 .253 2.73 .488 .044 1 20 len12b 1866 1975 110 5 3 .440 1.30 8.64 .850 .246 .286 3.21 .467 -.038 1 21 len41a 1920 1993 74 3 0 .503 2.49 4.89 .986 .525 .339 2.64 .496 .004 3 22 len41b 1913 1993 81 4 2 .506 2.31 5.26 .912 .493 .328 2.58 .408 -.006 1 23 len42a 1921 1974 54 2 1 .549 2.28 5.60 1.149 .646 .345 2.50 .359 -.035 1 24 len42b 1920 1968 49 2 0 .525 2.06 4.60 .924 .692 .316 2.60 .444 .075 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 2540 121 26 .509 1.15 12.40 .556 .645 .266 3.21 .463 -.019 - = [ COFECHA TEST COF ] = -

  18. COFECHA Seq Series Time_span 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 685211 1663 1983 .55 .64 .62 .38 .56 .68 .61 .44 .53 .63 .65 .64 .61 2 685212 1684 1983 .71 .77 .60 .75 .80 .66 .68 .69 .64 .48 .31A .32A 3 685231 1796 1983 .43 .47 .59 .63 .48 .36 .57 .61 4 685232 1822 1983 .32A .34 .42 .41 .21B .22B .35 5 685241 1693 1983 .61 .65 .60 .77 .75 .74 .81 .72 .64 .64 .66 .70 6 685242 1688 1983 .66 .71 .61 .73 .76 .77 .79 .63 .62 .47 .36 .38 7 685251 1796 1983 .59 .56 .61 .61 .65 .61 .59 .57 8 685252 1802 1983 .50 .64 .68 .72 .64 .67 .66 9 685261 1774 1983 .59 .59 .53 .69 .63 .67 .75 .65 .54 10 685262 1769 1879 .64 .74 .70 .70 .63 11 685262 1890 1971 .60 .77 .66 12 685271 1693 1983 .37 .51 .62 .73 .64 .66 .66 .68 .75 .71 .64 .67 13 685272 1766 1983 .70 .73 .74 .69 .67 .77 .78 .64 .66 14 685281 1651 1983 .58 .52 .64 .65 .86 .90 .78 .68 .64 .64 .73 .71 .68 15 685282 1631 1983 .49 .48 .55 .61 .54 .79 .88 .83 .76 .74 .75 .80 .73 .50 16 685291 1618 1983 .34 .38 .54 .66 .68 .58 .82 .80 .75 .67 .51 .65 .64 .62 .68 17 685292 1645 1983 .62 .63 .67 .64 .76 .81 .67 .58 .65 .66 .72 .73 .74 .77 18 685301 1772 1872 .51 .55 .77 .76 19 685301 1880 1983 .58 .70 .58 .60 20 685302 1730 1983 .37 .65 .78 .77 .78 .74 .68 .79 .75 .74 21 685311 1680 1983 .52 .54 .48 .77 .86 .75 .70 .56 .46 .58 .48 .46 22 685321 1628 1983 .63 .66 .67 .62 .37 .51 .66 .70 .81 .68 .67 .71 .64 .56 23 685322 1653 1983 .37 .71 .71 .58 .74 .73 .51 .64 .71 .68 .67 .60 .62 24 685332 1772 1983 .45 .44 .61 .55 .58 .66 .71 .64 .63 25 685341 1604 1983 .79 .70 .66 .62 .45 .48 .78 .71 .65 .73 .74 .72 .69 .63 .55 26 685342 1581 1983 .67 .60 .65 .60 .64 .76 .88 .80 .60 .73 .83 .72 .71 .80 .73 27 CBES3A 1610 1953 .67 .46 .48 .38 .39 .61 .57 .50 .53 .50 .33B .29A .43 .42 28 CBES3B 1610 1963 .63 .49 .18B .29A .58 .59 .59 .61 .55 .50 .57 .54 .56 .43 Av segment correlation .62 .55 .52 .58 .61 .56 .69 .69 .64 .66 .63 .63 .64 .59 .59

  19. COFECHA Seq Series Time_span 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 685211 1663 1983 .55 .64 .62 .38 .56 .68 .61 .44 .53 .63 .65 .64 .61 2 685212 1684 1983 .71 .77 .60 .75 .80 .66 .68 .69 .64 .48 .31A .32A 3 685231 1796 1983 .43 .47 .59 .63 .48 .36 .57 .61 4 685232 1822 1983 .32A .34 .42 .41 .21B .22B .35 5 685241 1693 1983 .61 .65 .60 .77 .75 .74 .81 .72 .64 .64 .66 .70 6 685242 1688 1983 .66 .71 .61 .73 .76 .77 .79 .63 .62 .47 .36 .38 7 685251 1796 1983 .59 .56 .61 .61 .65 .61 .59 .57 8 685252 1802 1983 .50 .64 .68 .72 .64 .67 .66 9 685261 1774 1983 .59 .59 .53 .69 .63 .67 .75 .65 .54 10 685262 1769 1879 .64 .74 .70 .70 .63 11 685262 1890 1971 .60 .77 .66 12 685271 1692 1982 -.13B-.13B .02B .08B .07B .00B-.04B .02B .07B .14B .15B .10B 13 685272 1766 1983 .70 .73 .74 .69 .67 .77 .78 .64 .66 14 685281 1651 1983 .58 .52 .64 .65 .86 .90 .78 .68 .64 .64 .73 .71 .68 15 685282 1631 1983 .49 .48 .55 .61 .54 .79 .88 .83 .76 .74 .75 .80 .73 .50 16 685291 1618 1983 .34 .38 .54 .66 .68 .58 .82 .80 .75 .67 .51 .65 .64 .62 .68 17 685292 1645 1983 .62 .63 .67 .64 .76 .81 .67 .58 .65 .66 .72 .73 .74 .77 18 685301 1772 1872 .51 .55 .77 .76 19 685301 1880 1983 .58 .70 .58 .60 20 685302 1730 1983 .37 .65 .78 .77 .78 .74 .68 .79 .75 .74 21 685311 1680 1983 .52 .54 .48 .77 .86 .75 .70 .56 .46 .58 .48 .46 22 685321 1628 1983 .63 .66 .67 .62 .37 .51 .66 .70 .81 .68 .67 .71 .64 .56 23 685322 1653 1983 .37 .71 .71 .58 .74 .73 .51 .64 .71 .68 .67 .60 .62 24 685332 1772 1983 .45 .44 .61 .55 .58 .66 .71 .64 .63 25 685341 1604 1983 .79 .70 .66 .62 .45 .48 .78 .71 .65 .73 .74 .72 .69 .63 .55 26 685342 1581 1983 .67 .60 .65 .60 .64 .76 .88 .80 .60 .73 .83 .72 .71 .80 .73 27 CBES3A 1610 1953 .67 .46 .48 .38 .39 .61 .57 .50 .53 .50 .33B .29A .43 .42 28 CBES3B 1610 1963 .63 .49 .18B .29A .58 .59 .59 .61 .55 .50 .57 .54 .56 .43 Av segment correlation .62 .55 .52 .58 .61 .56 .69 .69 .64 .66 .63 .63 .64 .59 .59

  20. As dated = “zero shift” position COFECHA 685271 1692 to 1982 291 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1692 1741 1 .00 .04 -.13 .03 .06 .15 .17 -.10 -.05 -.13 -.13| .37*-.02 -.06 .09 -.06 -.09 .01 -.11 .14 -.11 1700 1749 1 -.04 .01 -.25 .11 .10 .18 .10 -.03 .06 -.03 -.13| .51* .01 .06 .01 -.09 -.12 -.06 -.22 -.06 -.20 1725 1774 1 .03 -.03 -.25 -.19 -.09 .16 -.13 .12 -.35 .12 .02| .60* .20 .15 .03 .05 .09 -.10 -.20 -.23 -.36 1750 1799 1 -.09 -.08 -.15 -.10 .04 -.08 .03 .03 .03 .12 .08| .72* .06 .01 -.03 -.05 .16 -.09 -.15 -.19 -.24 1775 1824 1 -.18 -.05 -.04 -.01 .04 -.12 -.04 -.05 -.07 .15 .07| .64*-.06 .02 -.09 -.12 .12 -.09 -.07 -.20 -.03 1800 1849 1 .01 -.02 .09 -.13 -.16 .01 -.09 -.06 -.12 .01 .00| .65*-.03 .00 -.22 -.07 .03 .04 -.07 -.26 -.07 1825 1874 1 -.08 .09 .00 -.14 -.16 .21 -.04 .13 -.07 -.13 -.04| .67*-.06 -.13 -.08 .03 -.18 .00 .21 -.23 -.19 1850 1899 1 -.22 .13 -.05 -.16 -.14 .09 -.06 .15 -.10 -.15 .02| .69*-.04 -.11 .20 -.10 -.07 -.07 .19 -.24 -.26 1875 1924 1 -.08 .06 -.13 -.22 -.11 -.09 .03 -.18 -.06 -.13 .07| .75* .12 .17 .10 -.12 .04 -.07 -.24 -.13 -.11 1900 1949 1 -.09 -.03 -.04 .18 .03 -.27 -.11 .06 -.18 -.26 .14| .71*-.13 -.01 .02 .08 -.09 -.29 -.15 .32 .12 1925 1974 1 -.16 -.17 .08 .32 .02 -.22 -.15 .28 -.17 -.26 .15| .64*-.28 -.12 -.08 .19 -.07 -.27 -.15 .26 - 1933 1982 1 -.09 -.08 .11 .09 .01 -.18 .08 .21 -.22 -.17 .10| .67* - - - - - - - - -

  21. COFECHA Seq Series Time_span 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 685211 1663 1983 .55 .64 .62 .38 .56 .68 .61 .44 .52 .62 .64 .63 .60 2 685212 1684 1983 .71 .77 .60 .75 .80 .66 .68 .68 .63 .48 .32A .33A 3 685231 1796 1983 .43 .47 .59 .63 .48 .36 .57 .61 4 685232 1822 1983 .32A .35 .43 .41 .21B .21B .34 5 685241 1693 1983 .61 .65 .60 .77 .75 .74 .82 .73 .64 .64 .67 .69 6 685242 1688 1983 .66 .71 .61 .73 .76 .77 .80 .65 .62 .46 .36 .38 7 685251 1796 1983 .59 .56 .61 .61 .65 .60 .59 .57 8 685252 1802 1983 .50 .64 .68 .71 .62 .66 .65 9 685261 1774 1983 .59 .59 .53 .69 .63 .67 .75 .65 .54 10 685262 1769 1879 .64 .74 .70 .71 .64 11 685262 1890 1971 .61 .78 .67 12 685271 1693 1983 .37 .51 .62 .73 .64 .66 .65 .68 .75 .70 .63 .66 13 685272 1766 1982 .70 .74 .74 .49 .05B .14B .07B-.12B-.16B 14 685281 1651 1983 .58 .52 .64 .65 .86 .90 .78 .68 .64 .65 .74 .70 .66 15 685282 1631 1983 .49 .48 .55 .61 .54 .79 .88 .83 .76 .75 .75 .81 .72 .51 16 685291 1618 1983 .34 .38 .54 .66 .68 .58 .82 .80 .75 .67 .51 .65 .65 .63 .68 17 685292 1645 1983 .62 .63 .67 .64 .76 .81 .67 .58 .65 .66 .72 .73 .74 .76 18 685301 1772 1872 .51 .55 .77 .75 19 685301 1880 1983 .58 .69 .57 .59 20 685302 1730 1983 .37 .65 .78 .77 .78 .75 .69 .79 .75 .74 21 685311 1680 1983 .52 .54 .48 .77 .86 .75 .70 .57 .47 .57 .47 .45 22 685321 1628 1983 .63 .66 .67 .62 .37 .51 .66 .70 .81 .67 .67 .70 .64 .56 23 685322 1653 1983 .37 .71 .71 .58 .74 .73 .51 .64 .71 .68 .66 .59 .62 24 685332 1772 1983 .45 .44 .61 .55 .58 .65 .71 .63 .62 25 685341 1604 1983 .79 .70 .66 .62 .45 .48 .78 .71 .64 .72 .72 .70 .68 .62 .54 26 685342 1581 1983 .67 .60 .65 .60 .64 .76 .88 .80 .60 .73 .83 .72 .70 .79 .74 27 CBES3A 1610 1953 .67 .46 .48 .38 .39 .61 .57 .50 .53 .49 .33B .29A .43 .42 28 CBES3B 1610 1963 .63 .49 .18B .29A .58 .59 .59 .61 .55 .49 .56 .54 .55 .43 Av segment correlation .62 .55 .52 .58 .61 .56 .69 .69 .64 .65 .61 .60 .61 .56 .55

  22. As dated = “zero shift” position COFECHA 685272 1766 to 1982 217 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1899 1 -.10 -.09 -.22 -.20 -.07 -.07 .03 .16 .12 .03 .05| .66* .05 -.36 .08 -.09 -.11 -.10 .00 -.01 -.26 1875 1924 1 .04 -.10 -.21 -.27 -.19 .04 -.03 -.23 .05 -.08 .14| .77* .21 -.05 .03 -.16 -.03 -.04 -.13 -.09 -.11 1900 1949 1 .03 -.08 .01 .05 -.14 .04 -.17 -.11 .05 -.31 .07| .78* .04 -.16 .06 .04 -.08 -.09 .07 .12 .18 1925 1974 1 -.12 -.01 .08 .06 -.22 -.08 -.18 .15 .00 -.23 -.12| .62*-.01 -.18 .21 .08 .07 -.07 .19 -.02 - 1933 1982 1 -.17 .08 .12 .04 -.19 -.11 -.04 .06 -.06 -.15 -.16| .66* - - - - - - - - -

  23. Laboratory Methods in Dendrochronology PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 17:06 Thu 09 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 685211 1663 1983 321 13 0 .575 .89 2.59 .418 .922 .141 2.56 .294 -.001 1 2 685212 1684 1983 300 12 2 .610 1.05 2.77 .418 .865 .140 2.50 .312 -.003 1 3 685231 1796 1983 188 8 0 .537 1.80 3.68 .829 .947 .120 2.51 .389 -.006 2 4 685232 1822 1983 162 7 3 .358 1.70 3.62 .714 .875 .160 2.72 .432 -.013 2 5 685241 1693 1983 291 12 0 .710 1.02 2.61 .461 .906 .144 2.60 .363 -.026 3 6 685242 1688 1983 296 12 0 .640 1.07 3.22 .612 .931 .146 2.76 .438 -.013 1 7 685251 1796 1983 188 8 0 .584 1.88 3.67 .653 .868 .147 2.63 .377 -.012 2 8 685252 1802 1983 182 7 0 .607 1.99 3.70 .590 .838 .136 2.76 .410 .011 2 9 685261 1774 1983 210 9 0 .630 1.76 3.72 .643 .878 .132 2.61 .389 -.029 1 10 685262 1769 1879 111 5 0 .643 2.00 3.53 .551 .836 .126 2.54 .384 -.029 1 11 685262 1890 1971 82 3 0 .606 1.32 2.05 .235 .566 .130 2.65 .533 .010 2 12 685271 1692 1982 291 12 12 .014 .82 1.77 .329 .887 .136 2.52 .347 -.011 1 13 685272 1766 1983 218 9 0 .676 1.03 2.22 .407 .909 .129 2.53 .316 -.033 3 14 685281 1651 1983 333 13 0 .699 .72 1.35 .204 .729 .165 2.64 .318 -.023 1 15 685282 1631 1983 353 14 0 .646 .60 1.33 .181 .709 .185 2.61 .338 -.016 2 16 685291 1618 1983 366 15 0 .608 .80 2.08 .269 .803 .158 2.56 .371 -.029 2 17 685292 1645 1983 339 14 0 .679 .79 1.58 .218 .751 .150 2.56 .325 -.013 1 18 685301 1772 1872 101 4 0 .617 .83 1.35 .186 .588 .158 2.58 .373 -.032 1 19 685301 1880 1983 104 4 0 .592 1.24 2.13 .460 .849 .157 2.63 .433 -.011 1 20 685302 1730 1983 254 10 0 .691 .83 1.65 .255 .797 .162 2.52 .344 .013 1 21 685311 1680 1983 304 12 0 .607 .82 2.19 .470 .931 .168 2.75 .336 -.039 1 22 685321 1628 1983 356 14 0 .619 .79 2.12 .334 .881 .158 2.63 .374 -.024 1 23 685322 1653 1983 331 13 0 .626 .73 1.76 .305 .896 .156 2.62 .324 -.032 1 24 685332 1772 1983 212 9 0 .560 .81 1.57 .273 .814 .163 2.69 .409 .034 1 25 685341 1604 1983 380 15 0 .651 .86 3.38 .587 .946 .165 2.63 .361 -.011 1 26 685342 1581 1983 403 15 0 .705 .80 2.34 .433 .926 .165 2.62 .276 -.025 1 27 CBES3A 1610 1953 344 14 2 .449 .67 3.02 .418 .909 .186 2.61 .370 -.016 1 28 CBES3B 1610 1963 354 14 2 .502 .57 2.47 .326 .903 .198 2.60 .367 .002 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 7374 297 21 .590 .97 3.72 .405 .859 .156 2.76 .356 -.015

  24. COFECHA • Mean sensitivity • An important measure of how sensitive the ring widths (or densities) are, year to year. • Not to be confused with variability, although the two are remotely related. • Effective ranges: 0.10 to 0.80. • Southeastern, PNW, upper elevation trees:0.15 to 0.20 common, 0.25 to 0.35 exceptional. • Southwestern and semiarid site trees:0.35 to 0.50 common, 0.60 to 0.80 exceptional.

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