Introduction to Travel Demand/Behavior, or What about the People in Transportation?

1. Introduction to Travel Demand/Behavior, orWhat about the People in Transportation? Prof. Patricia L. Mokhtarian, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu www.its.ucdavis.edu/telecom/

2. Premise An understanding of individuals’ travel behavior is important to: • forecasting future travel demand • evaluating the effectiveness of policies • predicting the response to new technologies or services • anticipating possible unintended consequences

3. Overview • “Demand” versus “behavior” • Why do people travel? • Trends in travel demand • Modeling travel demand/behavior • Policy measures and travel behavior • Summary and conclusions

4. Demand Aggregate Forecast TRB: ADB40, Transportation Demand Forecasting Behavior Disaggregate Explain TRB: ADB10, Traveler Behavior and Values “Demand” v. “Behavior” Both deal with people’s travel choices/patterns/trends

5. Why do People Travel? • (Why did the chicken cross the road?) • Duh – to get where they want to be??? • Hence, the truism that “Travel is a derived demand” – i.e. the demand for travel is derived from the demand for spatially-separated activities • Corollary: Travel is a disutility, that people try to minimize

6. Assumed Implications (1) • Saved travel time is a benefit, hence a basis for valuing transportation improvements • THE largest benefit component in most cost-benefit analyses • We can reduce travel by… • ... making it more expensive • congestion pricing, fuel taxes, parking pricing

7. Assumed Implications (2) • We can reduce travel by… • … bringing activities closer together • increasing density and mixture of land uses • … using ICT to conduct the activity remotely • telecommuting, -conferencing, -shopping, -education, -medicine, -justice • We can better forecast travel by under-standing people’s activity engagement – the so-called “activity-based approach” to modeling travel demand

8. But is that the only reason people travel -- to get somewhere in particular?

9. Why Would Travel be Intrinsically Desirable? • Escape • Exercise, physical/mental therapy • Curiosity, variety-, adventure-seeking; conquest • Sensation of speed or even just movement • Exposure to the environment, information • Enjoyment of a route, not just a destination • Ability to control movement skillfully • Symbolic value (status, independence) • Buffer between activities, synergy with multiple activities

10. Assertion • Those characteristics apply not only to undirected (recreational) travel, but to directed travel as well • varying by mode, purpose, individual, circumstance

11. Trends in Travel Demand

12. Global Changes, 1960-1990 NAM: N. America LAM: Latin America WEU: W. Europe EEU: E. Europe FSU: Former Soviet Union MEA: Middle East and North Africa AFR: Sub-Saharan Africa CPA: Centrally Planned Asia and China SAS: South Asia PAS: Other Pacific Asia PAO: Other Pacific OECD Motorized mobility (pkm) per capita, 1960 and 1990. Source: Schafer, 1998

13. pkm by mode, 1970-2001 (EU-15) Source: European Commission, 2003

14. Ave. Annual Growth Rate of Cars and Their Use, 1970-90 Source: USDOT, 1997, Figure 10-2, p. 231

15. Auto Travel, 1970-2001 (EU-15) Source: European Commission, 2003

16. Intra-European Airline Passenger-km, 1970-2001 Data source: Eurostat/DGTREN. Source of figure: CNT, 2004

17. International Airline Passengers, 1993-2001 Data source: Eurostat. Source of figure: CNT, 2004

18. Mobility as a Function of GDP NAM: N. America LAM: Latin America WEU: W. Europe EEU: E. Europe FSU: Former Soviet Union MEA: Middle East and North Africa AFR: Sub-Saharan Africa CPA: Centrally Planned Asia and China SAS: South Asia PAS: Other Pacific Asia PAO: Other Pacific OECD Motorized mobility (car, bus, rail, and aircraft) per capita by world region vs GDP per capita, between 1960 and 1990. Source: Schafer, 1998

19. Car Ownership v. GDP SAS: South Asia PAS: Other Pacific Asia CPA: Centrally Planned Asia and China Estimated motorization rates for CPA, PAS and SAS, compared with the observed rise in motorization in several countries. Source of historical data: United Nations, 1960; United Nations, 1993a and IRF, various years. Source for figure: Schafer and Victor, 2000

20. Projected Mobility, 2050 Historical and estimated future total global mobility by mode in 1960, 1990, 2020 and 2050. Source: Schafer and Victor, 2000

21. Modeling Travel Demand/Behavior

22. Regional Travel Demand Forecasting (RTDF) (1) • Or, the Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS) • The workhorse of metropolitan area planners (ECI 251) • forecast demand • evaluate alternatives • Calibrated with data from a large-scale travel/activity diary survey (TTP 200)

23. Regional Travel Demand Forecasting (RTDF) (2) • The model contains 4 stages or submodels, corresponding to a set of choices that individuals are assumed to make: • whether to travel (trip generation) • where to travel (trip distribution) • by what means (mode) to travel (mode choice) • by what route (route assignment)

24. Regional Travel Demand Forecasting (RTDF) (3) • Example analysis tools used: • cross-classification, regression (trip generation) • gravity model (trip distribution) • probabilistic discrete choice – ECI 254 (mode choice) • network optimization – ECI 257 (route assignment)

25. Other Aggregate Demand Models • Auto ownership • Nationwide vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) • Travel time – is there a “travel time budget”? • Fuel consumption • Air travel demand • TOOLS: • Regression • Time series • Structural equations modeling

26. Disaggregate Behavioral Models/Tools • ANOVA, regression • Discrete choice (residential location, auto ownership, # of trips, destination, mode, route, combinations)

27. Discrete Choices of Work/Commute Engagement/Location • Work engagement – work frequency – commute frequency

28. Discrete Choices of Work/Commute Engagement/Location • Work engagement – commute engagement – type of partial commute

29. Disaggregate Behavioral Models/Tools • ANOVA, regression • Discrete choice (resid. loc., auto own., # of trips, destination, mode, route, combinations) • Hazard models (activity durations, time till accident, length of telecommuting engagement) • Factor analysis – TTP 200 (attitude/opinion measurement) • Structural equations modeling (relationships among attitudes, residential location, and travel behavior; relationships between telecom and travel)

30. Relative Desired Mobility Mobility Constraints General Travel Attitudes Travel Liking Personality & Lifestyle Demographics Objective Mobility Subjective Mobility Structural Model of Mobility Preferences/Behavior

31. Structural Model of Telecom/ Travel Relationships Socio-demographics Economic Activity Transporta-tion System Infrastructure Travel Demand Telecommuni-cations Demand Telecommuni- cations System Infrastructure Telecommuni-cations Costs Travel Costs Land Use Endogenous Variable Category Exogenous Variable Category

32. Policy Measures and Travel Behavior

33. When you think about it, virtually ALL policies are intended to affect behavior, whether they are ... • … supply-oriented, or • demand-oriented

34. Supply-oriented Policies • Expand physical infrastructure • Does this in itself stimulate the realization of latent demand? • More effectively manage existing supply (Transportation Supply Management, TSM) • Increase supply or reduce costs • to underserved populations • of using non-auto modes

35. Demand-oriented Policies • Generally intended to reduce demand, by • changing the cost signals (internalizing externalities, i.e. raising costs!) • changing land use planning to bring activities closer together • promoting ICT substitution • Collectively referred to as Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies

36. Summary • People travel for many reasons besides the obvious one; it is a fundamental human need • Worldwide trends are toward more travel, not just due to population growth, but per capita • It is a challenge to balance the human need for mobility against the need for sustainability • We need to better understand the need to travel for its own sake, and reasons behind various travel decisions • Implications for modeling, evaluation, policy

37. Discussion Questions • DOES virtual mobility reduce the need for real mobility? • How can we balance the human need for mobility against the need for sustainability? • Should policymakers try harder to discourage “unnecessary” travel? What are the most effective ways of doing so? • Can people express the extent to which they travel “for its own sake”?

38. Other Questions? plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu www.its.ucdavis.edu/telecom/ Slide borrowed from David Ory

39. Selected References CNT (Conseil National des Transports, Observatory on Transport Policies and Strategies in Europe) (2004) Bulletin Transports/Europe No. 11. Available at www.cnt.fr. European Commission (2003) European Union Energy & Transport in Figures. Directorate-General for Energy and Transport. Handy, Susan (2002) Accessibility- vs. mobility-enhancing strategies for addressing automobile dependence in the US. Prepared for the European Council of Ministers of Transport Roundtable 124, on Transport and Spatial Policies, November 7-8, Paris. Houseman, Gerald (1979) The Right of Mobility. Port Washington, NY: Kennikat Press. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Cynthia Chen (2004) TTB or not TTB, that is the question: A review and analysis of the empirical literature on travel time (and money) budgets. Transportation Research A38(9-10), 643-675. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Ilan Salomon (2001) How derived is the demand for travel? Some conceptual and measurement considerations. Transportation Research A35, 695-719. Schafer, Andreas (1998) The global demand for motorized mobility. Transportation Research A32(6), 455-477. Schafer, Andreas and David G. Victor (2000) The future mobility of the world population. Transportation Research A34(3), 171-205. U. S. Department of Transportation (1997) Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1997: Mobility and Access. Washington, DC: USDOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Available at http://www.bts.gov/publications/transportation_statistics_annual_report/1997/pdf/report.pdf.