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UK Economy In Charts

UK Economy In Charts Geoff Riley Tutor2u January 2009 The next set of GDP data will confirm recession BCC Confidence Survey hits rock bottom … for now A weaker global economy is hitting the export sector And the labour market is now suffering a severe ‘labour shake-out’

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UK Economy In Charts

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  1. UK Economy In Charts Geoff Riley Tutor2u January 2009

  2. The next set of GDP data will confirm recession

  3. BCC Confidence Survey hits rock bottom … for now

  4. A weaker global economy is hitting the export sector

  5. And the labour market is now suffering a severe ‘labour shake-out’

  6. Note the sharp spike in short-term unemployment as recession deepens

  7. And fewer hours for those still in a job

  8. Labour as a derived demand

  9. The OECD is forecasting a large negative output gap going forward

  10. Jobs expectations have worsened – will this hit consumer spending?

  11. Manufacturing tends to suffer badly in downturns - no different in 2009?

  12. And productivity is being hit by the recession ….why?

  13. The OECD have downgraded estimates of UK trend growth

  14. Partly because an economy in reverse will hit business capital spending

  15. CPI deflation is a possibility in 2009 .. RPI may get there first

  16. Will the deflation come from goods or services … or both?

  17. Maybe we were too fixated with headline CPI? Core inflation still 2%

  18. Policy rates are slashed to a 300 year low … but does the medicine work?

  19. A race for the bottom?

  20. Rate cuts hardly matter when the supply of credit has dried up

  21. And housing deflation continues apace

  22. LIBOR is now closer to the base rate

  23. But for those on unsecured credit 1.5% base rates has little meaning

  24. Keynesian deficit spending to the rescue? 50% of GDP is high!

  25. What lies behind the sharp fall in bond yields?

  26. How high will the government debt mountain reach?

  27. Will the new frugality take hold?

  28. For many in negative equity – saving will have to become a habit again

  29. Recession yes – but little sign of an improvement in the trade deficit …yet

  30. Sterling’s fall is a help but global demand is weak

  31. A floor for sterling-dollar for the moment?

  32. And talk of Euro parity was over-done

  33. The end of the great stability?

  34. Forgive us our daily blogs • Economics: • www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics • Business Studies: • www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/business-studies/ • Politics • www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/politics/

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