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Europe of 2040

Europe of 2040. Bas ter Weel CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Four CPB Publications. The Netherlands of 2040 Stad en Land Four Futures of Finance Europa in Crisis. Times Are a-Changin’. Times Are a-Changin’. New CPB Scenario Study. Question

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Europe of 2040

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  1. Europe of 2040 Bas ter Weel CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  2. Four CPB Publications • The Netherlands of 2040 • Stad en Land • Four Futures of Finance • Europa in Crisis

  3. Times Are a-Changin’

  4. Times Are a-Changin’

  5. New CPB Scenario Study • Question • How will we earn our daily bread in 2040? • Approach • Scenarios to deal with uncertainty • Answer • Smart people • Strong cities • Policy

  6. Brainstorm Retail Retail Blueprint Prototype Chips Production Packaging Retail Retail Specialisation of Work …

  7. Smart People • Specialisation • Communication technology … • … leads to unbundling of tasks … • … global knowledge exchange … • … and production by specialist workers

  8. ... or Generalisation of Work • Write your own emails • Insurance agents • Design programmes

  9. Smart People • Specialisation • Communication technology … • … leads to unbundling of tasks … • … global knowledge exchange … • … and production by specialist workers • Generalisation • Information technology … • … bundles tasks … • … performed by autonomous workers

  10. Stockholm Retail Retail Barcelona Tokyo Dallas Production Packaging Retail Retail Cities Are the Place to Be

  11. Concentration of Economic Activity …

  12. Strong Cities • Concentration • Economies of scale … • … with face-to-face interactions … • … to develop new technologies

  13. … or Scattering of Economic Activity

  14. Strong Cities • Concentration • Economies of scale … • … with face-to-face interactions … • … to develop new technologies • Scattering • Networks of small cities … • … with excellent connections … • … facilitated by ICT

  15. Two Uncertainties Scattering Specialisation Generalisation Concentration

  16. Four Scenarios Scattering Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Specialisation Generalisation Cosmopolitan Centres Metropolitan Markets Concentration

  17. Talent Towns

  18. Metropolitan Markets

  19. Other Scenarios Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Small cities Generalised workers Cosmopolitan Centres Large cities Specialised workers Metropolitan Markets

  20. The Magic Circle of Policymaking

  21. The Magic Circle of Policy Making Scattering Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Specialisation Generalisation Cosmopolitan Centres Metropolitan Markets Concentration

  22. Connections Build Strong Cities Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Cosmopolitan Centres Metropolitan Markets

  23. Smart People Innovate More Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Cosmopolitan Centres Metropolitan Markets

  24. Be Committed, Be Flexible Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies Cosmopolitan Centres Metropolitan Markets

  25. Wrapping Up • Smart people earn our income • Strong cities glue smart people together • Be committed, be flexible

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