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Inductive reasoning from experience (statistics) to a universal truth cannot prove anything for certain

Inductive reasoning from experience (statistics) to a universal truth cannot prove anything for certain. Introductory Applied Statistics: lecture 1 Instructor: Walter Zwirner TA: Ronaye Coulson. Numbers and humans. Fascination with numbers - Bible, cave paintings, Homers Iliad,

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Inductive reasoning from experience (statistics) to a universal truth cannot prove anything for certain

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  1. Inductive reasoning from experience (statistics) to a universal truth cannot prove anything for certain • Introductory Applied Statistics: lecture 1 • Instructor: Walter Zwirner • TA: Ronaye Coulson

  2. Numbers and humans • Fascination with numbers - Bible, cave paintings, Homers Iliad, • Bible, 4th Book of Moses, called Numbers, example: 1 v 19, 46: As the Lord commanded Moses, so he numbered them in the wilderness of Sinai' and he found in the twelve tribes {each tribe is listed} a total of 603,550 males, aged 20 and upwards, who were `able to go forth to war in Israel'.

  3. Types of information.Convenience scale • Random variables X, Y, Z, …continuous and discrete • Categorical – nominal type, faculty, gender; • Ordinal – ranking type, larger than, more; • Interval - temperature; IQ; grades • Ratio scale – absolute zero; height, age. • Quantitative vs qualitative

  4. From counting to statistics • `statistics' the first [controversial] statistician [political arithmetic] is Graunt(1620 – 1674): Natural and Political Observations Upon the Bills of Mortality in 1662, based on `counting's' from the City of London. • First life expectancy table: • Age survivors: • 0 100 • 6 64 • 16 40 • 26 25 • 36 16 • 46 10 • 56 6 • 66 3 • 76 1

  5. LANDRU • Select a Statistics Canada data file • Study and report, if available, on: • Purpose of the sampling experiment; • Sampling commissioned, done, by; • Population, sample; • Using common sense discuss strength and weaknesses as you see them.

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