1615 M Street, NW, Suite 740 · Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 410.467.2907 · layton@rti.org · www.rti.org

1. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (OASPE) Influenza Vaccine Project: Understanding the Dynamics of Influenza Vaccine Supply and Demand Presented to National Vaccine Advisory Committee Washington, DC February 8, 2005 Presented by Christine M. Layton, PhD, MPH 1615 M Street, NW, Suite 740 · Washington, DC 20036Phone: 410.467.2907 · layton@rti.org · www.rti.org RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute.

2. Introduction • Project follows up previous project “Annual Influenza Vaccine Distribution Process” concluded in 2001. • Purpose of present project is to review the current status of influenza vaccine demand, supply and distribution. • Five (5) issue briefs will be produced by the end of 2005.

3. Summary of Previous Project Annual Influenza Vaccine Distribution Process • Investigated influenza vaccine distribution in 2000-2001 season focusing on: • Vaccine distributors • Mass immunizers • Non-traditional providers • Economic factors

4. Summary of Previous Project Annual Influenza Vaccine Distribution Process • Findings: • Delays in distribution of influenza vaccine in 2000-2001 due to multiple causes • Notably • Too few manufactures • Too little vaccine • Too late

5. Purpose of Current Project • To provide policy makers and other decision makers information about influenza vaccine issues that: • Summarizes current issues • Is in a useful format

6. Summary of Current Project: Understanding the Dynamics of Influenza Vaccine Supply and Demand • Annotated bibliography • Key informant interviews • Issue briefs • Influenza vaccine overview • Influenza vaccine purchasing and distribution • Influenza vaccine manufacturing • Influenza vaccine economics • TBD

7. RTI Staff • Dr. Amanda Honeycutt—Economic analyst • Dr. Christine Layton—Project leader • Dr. David Rein—Economic analyst • Adrienne Rooks—Coordinator • Dr. Lucia Rojas Smith—Research analyst • Nathan West—Project associate

8. Project Timeline • Briefing reports will be completed between April and September 2005 • Influenza vaccine purchasing and distribution -- April • Influenza vaccine manufacturing -- May • Influenza vaccine economics -- May • Influenza vaccine overview -- August • TBD -- September

9. Annotated Bibliography • Collecting various sources of information • Peer-reviewed journals • Expert reports, e.g., IOM • “Fugitive” literature • Websites • Conference abstracts • Print media, i.e., newspapers

10. Key Informant Interviews • Interviewees will include: • Vaccine manufactures • Vaccine distributors • Federal experts • Other experts

11. Issue Brief: Overview • Summarize influenza vaccine supply issues • Update information presented in previous project • Summarize other issue briefs • Provide case studies for previous influenza seasons 2003-2005.

12. Issue Brief: Influenza Vaccine Purchasing and Distribution • Role of purchasers • Role of distributors • Role of other participants

13. Issue Brief: Vaccine Manufacturers • Structure of industry • Nature of influenza vaccine market • Global market factors • Decision making regarding • Quantity to produce • Investments in new technologies

14. Issue Brief: Influenza Vaccine Economics • Costs of production • Pricing strategies • Factors that impact consumer decisions to purchase vaccine

15. Issue Brief: TBD • List of potential topics due to OASPE in March • Ideas or other comments may e-mailed to layton@rti.org or amy.nevel@hhs.gov