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Benchmarking & Backcasting GDP of Indonesia Base Year 2010

Benchmarking & Backcasting GDP of Indonesia Base Year 2010. What is Benchmarking ?. Benchmarking is a technique to combine data from two sources with different time frequency :

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Benchmarking & Backcasting GDP of Indonesia Base Year 2010

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  1. Benchmarking & Backcasting GDP of IndonesiaBase Year2010

  2. What is Benchmarking ? • Benchmarking is a technique to combine data from two sources with different time frequency : • for example data with monthly/quarterly frequency, which believe to be less accurate, on the other hand data with annual frequency is believed to be more complete and accurate; therefore annual data usually used as benchmark for monthly/quarterly data. • The main purpose of benchmarking is to distribute the diffence between two series of data so that trend of final series is closely similar with the actual/original series.

  3. Method of Benchmarking • Mostly known benchmarking method is Proportional Denton Method whichmaximize pertain short-term movements of monthly/quarterly data, and produce benchmark series as close as the actual. • It is done by minimizing the difference (in “least squares”) month to month (or quarter to quarter) percentage change of the original benchmark series. • There is a computer program called BENCH made by Statistics Canada to compute benchmarking process.

  4. Exercise 1 : Benchmarking Annual and Quarterly GDP Quarterly GDP Bench 2000 & 2005 Annual GDPBench 2000 & 2005 Quarterly GDP old series, 2000=100 Annual GDP old series, 2000=100

  5. Annual Current Price GDP 2000 - 2010 (BillionRp)

  6. Quarterly Current Price GDP 2000 - 2010 (BillionRp)

  7. Annual GDP by Industries2000 - 2010 (BillionRp)

  8. Quarterly GDP by Industries 2000 - 2010 (BillionRp)

  9. Exercise 2 : Backcasting 2010 Constant Price GDP Constant GDP Series2010=100 Bench 2000 & 2005 Quarterly Constant GDP, Series2010=100 Growth of Constant GDP, Series 2000=100 (%) Quarterly Constant GDP, Series 2000=100

  10. Annual Growth of Constant GDP2001 – 2010 (%) Agriculture Food Crops Total GDP

  11. Quarterly Growth of Constant GDP, QtoQ, 2001 – 2010 (%) Food Crops Agriculture Total GDP

  12. Quarterly Growth of Constant GDP,YonY,2001 – 2010 (%) Food Crops Agriculture Total GDP

  13. Annual Growth of Constant GDP by Industries 2001 – 2010 (%)

  14. Quarterly Growth of Constant GDP QtoQ 2001 – 2010 (%)

  15. Quarterly Growth of Constant GDP YonY2001 – 2010 (%)

  16. Exercise 3 : Implicit price deflator of 2010 Constant Price GDPSeri 2010 Current GDP Seri 2010Bench 2000 & 2005 Implicit Indexof GDPSeri 2010Bench 2000 & 2005 Constant GDP Seri 2010Bench 2000 & 2005

  17. Annual Implicit Growth 2001 – 2010 (%)

  18. Quarterly Implicit Growth (%)

  19. Annual Implicit Growth by industries(%)

  20. Quarterly Implicit Growth by industries2001 – 2010 (%)

  21. Thank you Need to establish a clearer way forward Where next ?

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