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The Value of Cumulative Research . A Competitive Advantage Lessons of the Masters Jeff Auxier President, Auxier Asset Management LLC Founder/Manager, Auxier Focus Fund. Back to the Basics: Researching the Lessons of America’s Greatest Investors. Warren Buffett: An early call in 1982
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The Value of Cumulative Research A Competitive AdvantageLessons of the Masters Jeff Auxier President, Auxier Asset Management LLC Founder/Manager, Auxier Focus Fund
Back to the Basics: Researching the Lessons of America’s Greatest Investors • Warren Buffett: An early call in 1982 • Ben Graham: The Intelligent Investor and Securities Analysis • John Templeton: The Humble Approach • Phil Fisher: Conservative Investors Sleep Well • Robert B. Pamplin: The valuable lawn job - $100 grows to $3,000
Framework to Endure • A rational, businesslike approach • Price, Value, Margin of Safety • The double play vs. the torpedo
Investing: The Craft of the Specific • Focus on the important and the knowable • The importance of determining odds • Price dictates capital allocation • Get far away from the emotions of Wall Street • Templeton, Buffett
Investing: The Craft of the Specific • A long-term focus is invaluable • A long-term orientation is one of the greatest edges an investor has in the current market • Ego and emotion are the enemy • Isaac Newton, arguably one of the smartest investors of his generation, was wiped out in the South Sea bubble. Why? • Importance of humility • Recurring sins of over-paying and over-borrowing • Long-term Capital Management – a lethal combination of ego and excessive borrowing • Compounding is the most underappreciated concept • Slow & Steady wins the race • “Understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things.” – Charlie Munger
Accounting :The Language of Business • The importance of ledgers • Pamplin: Training your brain to be the calculator • The importance of manual marking • John D. Rockefeller: “As I began life as a bookkeeper, I learned to have respect for figures and facts no matter how small they were. Ledgers are sacred books that guide decisions and save us from fallible emotions.”
Accounting :The Language of Business • Bernard Baruch: “Facts are facts even in the height of emotion.” • Jim Sinegal, CEO of Costco: “Retail is detail.” • Sam Walton of Wal-Mart reviewed weekly ledgers starting at 2 am every Saturday before the company meeting • Ben Franklin kept a “moral ledger” where he would track his virtues and vices every day
The Misperceptions of Risk • Buffett: “Risk is not knowing what you are doing.” • Try to avoid risks, not take them • Carlos Slim: “In my opinion I never take risk.” • In 1982 buys companies at 3-5% of book value as Mexico defaults on debt • The four most dominant Texas oil families, Cullen, Richardson, Murchison & Hunt, boldly move as oil drops to 3 cents a barrel over a 60-month period (1930 -1935)
The Misperceptions of Risk • 1930, J. Paul Getty sets up Tidewater to buy oil stocks • Never paid over book value • 2009 U.S. distressed debt market discounts a 50% loss projection, while the worst case, 1930s, was 5% • The corresponding rally of 50% marked the strongest performance for any domestic fixed income index since the early 1950s
The Misperceptions of Risk • Diversification does not work during periods of extremely easy money when assets are inflated • Define circle of competence • Thorough research on the entire capital structure of each company • Wipe-out risk of extreme leverage • Get adequately compensated for the risk taken
Understanding Supply and Demand • Be mindful of the dangers of bubbles resulting from easy money • Beware of “600% in six” phenomenon • Avoid the hottest companies in the hottest industries • Torpedoes kill compounding • You want the inspired management, in the uninspiring industry • Top performing stocks in the S&P 500 since 1950
Crisis Is Opportunity • Since 1947 recessions have occurred less than 5% of the time • Carlos Slim comes alive after Mexico defaults on their government debt • 1940s, Joe Kennedy buys the Chicago Merchandise Mart for 30 cents on the dollar • Following the last thrift crisis in the late 1980s • 1991-1998 small banks were the number one performing asset class • 1992-2000 small and midsized banks appreciated between 400%-800%
“Warren Buffett is one of the best learning machines on earth. The turtles which outrun the hares are learning machines. If you stop learning in this world, the world rushes by you.” - Charlie Munger
Does it work? The history lesson is informative, but does this fundamental research approach work in today’s highly competitive global marketplace?
Auxier Focus FundAs of 12/31/2011 CUMULATIVE ANNUALIZED * Investor Shares ** Fund inception: July 9, 1999 Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost. As stated in the current prospectus, the Investor Class Share’s annual operating expense ratio (gross) is 1.32%. The Adviser has contractually agreed to reduce a portion of its fee and reimburse Fund expenses to limit Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses to 1.25% through at least October 31, 2015. Other share classes may vary. The Fund charges a 2.0% redemption fee on shares redeemed within six months of purchase. Returns shown for less than six months do not reflect the 2.0% redemption fee. For the most recent month-end performance, please call (877)328-9437 or visit the Fund’s website at www.auxierasset.com. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor.
May 3 - 4, 2012 Mammel Hall Omaha, Nebraska