LANDIS-II Workshop April 1, 2006

1. LANDIS-IIWorkshopApril 1, 2006

2. LANDIS-II Workshop Agenda • Introduction to LANDIS-II presentation • Tour of the Web Site • Downloading new extensions • Running the model • Input validation • Running multiple scenarios • Viewing output • Future Modifications

3. Forest Landscape Simulation Models • Forest Landscape Simulation Models • Simulate change through time due to the interactions between succession and external drivers (e.g., disturbances or climate change) across a spatially extensive ecosystem. • Are used in conjunction with Scenarios • configurations of alternate potential future conditions • examine management consequences • understand process interactions • a suite of discrete stories of forest change

4. Why Use Forest Landscape Models? Provide projections of long-term (100 – 200 yrs) and broad-scale forest change. Allows experimentation and comparisons between scenarios. Tools for synthesizing data and models of smaller-scale processes. Multi-disciplinary: incorporate concepts and theories from landscape, ecosystem, and community ecology.

5. LANDIS-II Example: Interactions among climate change, fragmentation, and harvesting in northern Wisconsin. • ~1.5 million ha • aspen-pines-northern hardwoods • fragmented Madison, Wisconsin

6. 0.8 0.8 2000 2001 0.7 0.7 FORESTED LANDSCAPE 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Enhanced Vegetation Index Enhanced Vegetation Index 0.4 0.4 SPECIES ESTABLISHMENT 0.3 0.3 Gypsy Moth Defoliated Gypsy Moth Defoliated 0.2 0.2 Not Defoliated Not Defoliated NPP 0.1 0.1 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Julian Day Julian Day SPRUCE BUDWORM GYPSY MOTH LIVING BIOMASS MODIS seasonal profiles of 250m EVI for defoliated and undisturbed areas. Bars indicate 95% confidence intervals. Mortality DEAD BIOMASS LANDIS-II Example: Effects of insects on carbon storage and succession (NASA)

7. LANDIS-II Example: Effects of fire and nitrogen cycling in New Jersey Pine Barrens.

8. LANDIS-II Example: Climate change, harvesting options, and conservation implications in northern Minnesota (TNC).

9. LANDIS-II Introduction

10. LANDIS-IIFeatures Stochastic • disturbance events dependent upon probabilities • regeneration also probabilistic • Spatially Dynamic • emphasis is on contagious processes: dependent upon neighborhoods and landscape configuration

11. LANDIS-IIFeatures • Optimized for Large Landscapes • spatially explicit and dynamic • results can be viewed in a GIS Spatial and Temporal Flexibility • variable time steps for each process • variable spatial resolution and extent

12. LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator FORESTED LANDSCAPE DISPERSAL SPECIES ESTABLISHMENT INSECTS / DISEASE CLIMATE AGEING & GROWTH (optional) HARVESTING FIRE AGE-RELATED MORTALITY WINDTHROW

13. Landscape Sites Dynamic community composition Ecoregions Homogeneous soils and climate LANDIS-II Introduction LANDIS simulates succession, seed dispersal, harvesting, and other natural disturbances.

14. LANDIS-II Introduction Question: How to represent trees? Problem: At broad scales, we cannot represent individual trees. Solution: Aggregate individuals into SPECIES and AGE cohorts. Example: Actual site 10 year species and age cohorts Sugar maple ages: Sugar maple cohorts: 2,3,16,89,112 1-10, 11-20, 81-90, 111-120 Hemlock ages: Hemlock cohorts: 6,8,24,56,225 1-10, 21-30, 51-60, 221-230

15. LANDIS-II Introduction Why Species and Age? LANDIS is founded on the principle of vital attributes (Noble and Slatyer 1980). Vital attributes are the unique life history characteristics of each species. Vital attributes define how a species will respond to disturbance and competition. Examples include: shade tolerance, longevity, fire tolerance, seed production age, seed dispersal distances, etc.

16. LANDIS-II Introduction • Species and Age Cohorts: • Tree species cohorts defined by age • Cohort age ranges are flexible • Multiple cohorts at each site, multiple cohorts for each species. An abstract cohort An example cohort Species Acer rubrum Age range 21-30 years old

17. An abstract cohort An example cohort Species Acer rubrum Age range 21-30 years old Biomass 5 Mg ha-1 LANDIS-II Introduction • Species and Age Cohorts: • Can be extended to include quantitative data • Example: Cohorts with aboveground biomass.

18. LANDIS-II Introduction LANDIS-II has a Core and many extensions. Extensions contain the ecological processes - succession and disturbances. There can be many different extensions for each process - different questions, different extensions. Extensions are designed to be shared and modified. Ours will be open source. Many disturbance types possible.

19. LANDIS-II Core ` Landscape Site Data Species Data spp2 5 … 0.5 … sppN x … z • Species Cohorts • Other site data: • - Time since fire • - Leaf litter & fine woody debris • Coarse woody debris Life History or Physiological Data: - Shade Tolerance - Fire Tolerance - Maturity Age - Longevity Ecoregion Data - Disturbance regimes - Growth, decomposition, establishment Species Cohorts: Minimally Includes: Species ID + Age Can Include: Aboveground Live Biomass, Density, Diameter, etc.

20. LANDIS-II Extensions Disturbance Extensions Succession Extensions Output Extensions • Each disturbance can also define and have its own data: • Unique Set of Ecoregions • Additional Species Data • Additional Site Data Defines what type of cohort will be used. Determines how site-level light is calculated. Manages reproduction. Summarizes data into useful outputs. Does not alter the landscape or sites in any way.

21. LANDIS-II Flexible ArchitectureExample Scenario of User Interactions

22. LANDIS-II Core Main Module Species Module Ecoregion Module Other Modules Succession Extension Fire Extension Landscape Module Landscape Site Wind Extension Shared Data The User downloads extensions (‘plug-ins’) from the LANDIS-II web site User Computer LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions

23. LANDIS-II Core Main Module Species Module Ecoregion Module Other Modules Landscape Module Landscape Site Shared Data The User indicates which extensions to use Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension Each extension has its own time step, determined by the User. LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions

24. LANDIS-II Core Main Module Species Module Ecoregion Module Other Modules Landscape Module Landscape Site Shared Data Each extension defines its own site variables. Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension These data are shared with other extensions. Examples include: time since last fire, dead biomass, etc.

25. LANDIS-II Core Main Module Other Modules Species Module Ecoregion Module Landscape Module Landscape Site Shared Data Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension Each extension can also add species or ecoregion data. LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions

26. LANDIS-II Core Species Module Ecoregion Module Other Modules Main Module Landscape Module Landscape Site Shared Data Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension Main Module determines the order and executes succession, disturbance, and output. LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions

27. LANDIS-II Variable Time Steps

28. Variable Time Steps • Each extension (‘plug-in’) operates at its own time step, from 1 - 100+ years. • Extension types: • succession • disturbance • output • Species cohorts match the succession time step. For example: If succession = 20 yrs, then cohorts = 1 - 20, 21 - 40, 41 - 60 yrs and so on.

29. Variable Time Steps • Each extension operates at its own time step. • For example: • Succession every 10 years • Fire every 3 years • Output every 5 years • The Main Module (MM) operates at an annual time step. • Every year, MM checks whether each module need to run. • Some modules (e.g. fire) will only alter a sub-set of sites.

30. New cohorts (C1) added to age class 1-10. C1 aged into age class 11-20. C2 (7 yrs old) are placed into age class 1-10 yr. If a disturbance alters a site, reproduction occurs at that site (add C2). Variable Time Steps Example: a single site Succession (S) every 10 years Fire (F) every 3 years Output (O) every 5 years time

31. C1 aged into age class 11-20. C2 (7 yrs old) and C3 (4 yrs old) are combined into age class 1-10 yr. New cohorts (C1) added to age class 1-10. Disturbance alters a site, reproduction occurs (add C2). Disturbance @ year 6: Incorporates presence of C2. Reproduction occurs (add C3). Variable Time Steps Example: a single site Succession (S) every 10 years Fire (F) every 3 years Output (O) every 5 years time

32. LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA CANADA Eastern Fire Zone Western Fire Zone ONTARIO WINNIPEG USA MINNESOTA N. DAKOTA Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

33. 1 yr. Fire / Succession 5 yr. Fire / Succession 10 yr. Fire / Succession Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

34. 1 year fire and succession 5 year fire and succession 10 year fire and succession Lowland black spruce Balsam fir Upland black spruce White birch Jack pine Black ash Balsam poplar Tamarack Big-toothed aspen White spruce Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

35. LANDIS-II Workshop Agenda • Introduction to LANDIS-II presentation • Tour of the Web Site • Running the model • Input validation • Running multiple scenarios • Viewing output • Calibrating fire rotation periods • Future Modifications

36. LANDIS-II Future Modifications • Dependent Upon User Feedback! • Insect extension now available • Harvesting soon • Version 5.1 with biomass and downloadable extensions soon • New input/output formats