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POSITIONING USING PROBABILITY

POSITIONING USING PROBABILITY. Rich Stehlik Rules Interpreter Board 210. Striving to Make Correct Calls. Importance Of Asking “WHY?” Why Was An Incorrect Call Made? Assumptions Made For This Presentation What Is the Best Position For A Play? How Does Hustle Influence Positioning?

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POSITIONING USING PROBABILITY

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  1. POSITIONING USING PROBABILITY Rich Stehlik Rules Interpreter Board 210

  2. Striving to Make Correct Calls • Importance Of Asking “WHY?” • Why Was An Incorrect Call Made? • Assumptions Made For This Presentation • What Is the Best Position For A Play? • How Does Hustle Influence Positioning? • Why Should We Be Aggressive? • What Should We Teach Young Officials?

  3. Always Ask “Why?” • Every Child Asks it!!! • It’s how humans learn • When we know Why, we Understand • Rules knowledge/philosophy/positioning • If I miss a “travel” call because of poor positioning, then what is the benefit of reviewing the rule on the pivot foot? • So... WHY was the call not correct? • This requires Self-awareness & Honesty

  4. Why Are Poor Calls Made? • Saw the play incorrectly (this happens very rarely, and inexplicable at times) • Rule not known or misunderstood • Focus (focused on wrong thing or simply lacked focus) • Poor positioning forces an educated guess – probability of the correct call being made decreases substantially

  5. Some Thoughts/Assumptions • Eye has a 3 sharp central vision (fovea) • No excuses – study the rules and learn quickly from mistakes (ours & others) • Tough to Teach Focus – emphasize it often - key role of senior officials/CC’s • Key assumption for today – refs that are in the proper position will make correct calls a vast majority of the time

  6. Missed Call - Example of Focusing on Wrong Area

  7. So What Is the Best Position? • Mechanics put us in the best “starting position” – mechanics not created on a whim! • Once there, we need to MAINTAIN a position that allows us to see the space between players, feet of the dribbler & defence, and the ball • This is where hustle is crucial

  8. Key Idea – What is HUSTLE? • We often think of hustle as running from Point A to Point B • More importantly, hustle also includes maintaining position with strong but deliberate movements (strong steps) • Sometimes this puts us into places that necessitate hustle from old trail to new lead on transitions

  9. So Let’s Talk Probability • As Trail – do we trail the play or referee the players – sometimes these ideas conflict • What’s more likely – a turnover OR a foul/ violation on (or by) the dribbler • Too many refs worry about getting beat down the floor on transition • “Yeah, but what if there’s a turnover???”

  10. Game Analysis • 6 Games analyzed (Canadian/USA HS, Canadian University, Canadian 18/19) • 13.8 Transitions per game • 5.52 Plays Trail Got Beat to Baseline (majority were uncontested layups) • 2 missed calls TOTAL from all 6 Games • Compare that to all rebound, steal, turnover decisions to be made as C or T • Worth the risk? I SHOULD THINK SO!!!!!!

  11. NCAA Div. 1 Game Stats (Adjusted to 32 Minute Games) • 88.4540181 FG Attempts • 38.62301866 FG Made • 43.665% Shooting Percentage • 55.73412 Rebounds (FT rebounds Incl.) • Importance of Staying Deep As Trail (& C) • Importance of Staying Alert as Lead

  12. NCAA Div. 1 Game Stats (Adjusted to 32 Minute Games) • 21.54989839 Turnovers • 10.3401441 Steals • Importance of Staying Deep as Trail to Officiate these Steals/Turnovers • Importance of New Trail (and especially New C in 3 person) to Help on Transitions • ALL 2010-2011 Regular Season Games Included in Calculation • Similar to Findings in our 6 Games

  13. TRAIL POSITIONING

  14. Excellent Trail Movement

  15. It Pays to Referee the Space(Even on Steals)

  16. Refereeing Space & Penetration on Rebounding

  17. Why Not Referee Deep When Everyone is Rebounding?

  18. Refereeing the Space Allows For Better Calls (not just Fouls)

  19. Where Did the Trail Go?

  20. Sometimes We Get Caught- Worth the Risk

  21. There Is One Other Danger In Refereeing Aggressively

  22. LEAD POSITIONING

  23. Lead Refereeing Space

  24. So What Should the Lead Be Looking At in Transition?

  25. Avoid the Bailout as Lead

  26. Youth and Experience • Tough for young officials – experience helps in many ways (art of reffing, game management, reputations, positioning) • Young officials are typically quicker and more energetic physically with quicker reactions – this can help compensate for lack of experience • If we stress the importance of using these strengths, they become habitual as referees gain experience

  27. Credits • Don Thorne (Board 210 President – Game Tape Review & Data Gathering for Game Analysis Information) • IAABO “You make the ruling – High School Basketball areas of concern” DVD • FIBA Mechanics DVD – FIBA Europe and FIBA Americas Joint Effort 2008 • FIBA Europe Officials Development DVD Package (Play Situations 2006, Play Discussion Vol.1 & Vol.2 2006) • http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/145/p1

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