Introduction

1. Introduction Drought Challenges and Opportunities R. Dole, CDC Plus a cast of thousands* North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow - 1310 cfs, Observed - 0 Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935 *J. Laver, D. Lecomte, A. Kumar, T. Karl, J. Lawrimore, R. Heim, R. Livezey, M. Brewer, C. Nierenberg, J. Foster, H. Hill, N. Beller-Simms, C. Woodhouse, R. Webb, K. Redmond, et al. May 21, 2004

2. Challenge: Human Dimension Fundamental Challenges of Drought Human/Environmental Dimensions • Droughts are not simply climate phenomena. They have profound social, environmental, and economic impacts. This vastly increases challenges to services. 1988 Drought 1980 Drought

3. Challenge: Communication Fundamental Challenges of Drought Communication • Definition: There is no unique definition of drought. National Drought Policy Commission: Drought is “ A persistentabnormalmoisture deficiency having adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, and people”. • There are different drought “types”. Meteorological - Prolonged rainfall deficit compared to normal. Agricultural - Topsoil moisture deficit. Agricultural impacts. Hydrological - Surface or sub-surfacewater supply shortage. Typically, meteorologicalagriculturalhydrological Same sequence for drought recovery.

4. Challenge: Diverse time scales Fundamental Challenges of Drought Diverse time scales Droughts span an enormous range of time scales, from short-term “flash droughts” that can have major agricultural impacts to multi-year or even decadal droughts (1930s, 1950s, etc.) Paleoclimate evidence suggests that in the last 1000 years parts of the U.S. have experienced “mega-droughts” that persisted for decades. Droughts • Other climate modes

5. Example: Paleoclimate evidence Drought evidence in Paleoclimate Records (from NCDC Paleoclimate Branch website) From tree ring Records - NM From salinity estimates - Moon Lake, ND

6. Strategic Challenges Strategic Challenges • Governmental entities are moving from simply responding to droughts to more proactive approaches. The U.S. is moving toward a more proactive approaches to anticipating and managing droughts. This has important implications for future NOAA climate services -- • Droughts have profound national and global implications. Severe and sustained droughts can lead to legal and political conflicts. For example, prolonged drought in the U.S. Southwest and northern Mexico is creating toward conflicts about shared water rights. • Demands for scientifically-based drought information are increasing. The needs for drought information now extend beyond traditional drought-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and water resource management. There are increasing needs for drought information to inform critical policy and infrastructure decisions, and increasing concerns about the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on future water supply.

7. Opportunities AndOpportunities … • NOAA has tremendous scientific and service capabilities related to drought. We have developed significant cooperation across lines to address drought challenges, from drought monitoring to planning and cooperation with the Western Governors’ Association for a National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). • Beyond NIDIS, there are numerous other national and international drivers that reinforce the needs for improved drought monitoring, prediction, and information services. Several of these will be discussed later. They include: • CCSP - extreme events and regional decisional support. • CENR - grand challenges for the next decade (extreme events/drought). • Pending drought legislation in the House and Senate. • GEO - improved observing systems for decision support. • Other international - North American and International Drought monitors. Without question, there are major opportunities for NOAA to contribute in the above areas. Also without question, the provision of drought information will be a major part of NOAA’s future climate services.

8. Drought in the West - Intro A Specific Example: Drought in the West • The western drought is a hydrologic drought. • This is a sustained drought. It has developed over several years. • This is a large-scale drought. It affects much of the western U.S. • This is a severe drought - at least by modern historical terms. • This drought is attracting heavy media attention, including from major national media outlets. • The drought is raising grave management concerns. • There is discussion of the possibility for the first-ever “call” on the • Colorado River under the terms of the Colorado River Compact.

9. Lake Powell is at 42% capacity • Lake levels have dropped ~ 120 feet • Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 62% of capacity • Net flow of water for WY 2004 to date is 58% of average. Severe Hydrologic Shortages Lake Powell Water Level (ft) Glen Canyon Dam Filled1980

10. Dillon Reservoir(Colorado) 2002

11. Potential Western water supply crises and conflicts by 2025 (USBR) US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential water supply crises and conflicts by the year 2025 based on a combination of technical and other factors, including population trends and potential endangered species needs for water. Note:There is an underlying assumption of a statistically stationary climate.

12. Overview of NOAA Drought Products Overview of NOAA Drought Products There are numerous NOAA drought products available, which are very heavily used. Only a few examples will be shown here, to serve as updates on the current situation and to provide a basis to discuss challenges and opportunities for NOAA climate services. There is an excellent central NOAA website available for those interested: http://www.drought.noaa.gov/ This drought information center contains links to sites across NOAA that provide real-time information as well as background materials on drought.

13. U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. Drought Monitor Derived by synthesizing various information sources (NOAA leads: CPC, NCDC. With DOA and NDMC) Agricultural (A), hydrological (H) designate primary impacts (drought types). There are manifold indirect impacts as well, e.g., on recreation, energy production, water quality, fire risk, air quality, ecosystems, endangered species.

14. Drought Outlook NOAA Drought Outlook (CPC)

15. Paleoclimate Products Paleoclimate Products (NCDC-Paleoclimate Branch) • Gridded Reconstructions of Drought (PSDI), Cook et al. 1999 • Annual maps and grid point time series from reconstructed (1700-1978) and instrumental (1900-1995) data, available online. • Updated version soon to be released, expanded to North America, back to AD 800 (many areas), reconstructions are integrated with instrumental data to up to 1999. • Recently funded, “living” blended drought reconstructions will be updated with instrumental data for nearly “real time” assessments of current and developing drought in a long-term context.

16. Applications of Paleoclimate data • Is the Colorado River Compact based on a period of anomalous moisture? Is the current drought, which has drawn Lake Powell down to less than half its capacity, an unusual event? The Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstruction can answer the first question (Yes), but it ends in 1964. There are plans to update this reconstruction and others for the Colorado River basin to 1999 or later. • What measures are required to bring groundwater pumping, which has driven groundwater to the lowest depths since pumping began in the San Luis Valley, in balance with inflows? Gauge records are too short to determine the long-term natural variability of droughts, which must be considered when evaluating the sustainability of the aquifers underlying the valley. Tree-ring reconstructions can provide information on long-term inflows. Grand Canyon and Great Sand Dunes NPs

17. Regional Climate Center Products • The Western Region Climate Center (WRCC) in Reno is a tremendous resource for climate information relevant to the western drought. In addition to providing drought-related products through its website, WRCC personnel interact extensively with end users to address questions on drought and other related issues, such as wildfires. • Some WRCC products • Historical Climate Data • Real-time monitoring products • Current obs. and forecasts • Educational pages • Research products

18. Regional Integrated Science and Assessments(RISAs) The RISAs provide a direct connection between research and end users. They have a strong focus on drought issues, how current climate products are used and interpreted, and what are the needs for next generation regional climate information products. • RISA research is: • User focused • Interdisciplinary • Place-based • Considers multiple stressors • Focuses on key regional issues • Provides and assesses uses of • climate information and products for regional decision support

19. International Products and Linkages • GEO – Organized by Themes Including • Climate • Natural Hazards and Disasters • Agriculture • Water Resources • Experimental Drought Monitor Product • Mexico • Canada • Issues Related to Operational Product • Observation Systems • Data Timeliness & Quality • Drought Indices/Tools • Coordination Among Principals • Potential for Early GEO Success • International October Meeting • Existing/Planned Products

20. NOAA Drought-related Research • What are potential sources for drought predictability? • What are observed climate trends, and can their causes be identified? • What are projections for future climate change, and what is our confidence in such projections? • How are climate products now used, what are their strengths and limitations, and how can these products be improved or new products be developed that will better serve the needs of the public and decision-makers? • Drought-related research is being carried out a several institutions, and also supported at OGP, especially through water-cycle research in the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA), with a summertime precipitation focus in the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME).

21. Effects of ENSO on SW U.S. Precipitation • Climate forecasts are intrinsically probability forecasts. • Beyond a few weeks the major source for predictive skill comes from • ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans.

22. What are Observed Western Climate Trends?

23. Observed and modeled SW winter temperature trends Observed trends are consistent with trends obtained in climate models forced by observed GHG changes. However, models forced by observed SST over this period also show warming, so both anthropogenic and natural factors are likely contributing.

24. Western U.S. Streamflow Trends From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004) There is a marked trend toward an earlier melt out and earlier peak flows throughout almost all of the West, consistent with a winter warming trend. Such warming increases evaporation, extends the growing season, and likely also increases the demand for water resources.

25. U.S. West climate trends projectionsfrom transient-forced runs (8 models, 12 runs)

26. Projected temperature and precipitation trends

27. NIDIS Update • National Drought Preparedness Act of 2004 • Establishes a permanent Drought Council • Authorizes a Drought Fund • Gives the lead for implementing the NIDIS to DOC/NOAA • NIDIS Recommendations • Establish NIDIS • Establish data needs and integration tools - integrate existing networks, determine gaps … • Research Needs…. to improve the forecasting of short- and long-term drought conditions, to make the forecasts more useful and timely, and to establish priorities based on the potential to reduce drought impacts. • Facilitate Drought Preparedness Programs • Enhance Interactions and Education

28. Key issues and questions • In the near-term, should NOAA develop a more integrated strategy in anticipation of emerging issues related to the western U.S. drought? • How will NOAA respond to the NIDIS challenge? • There has been good collaboration within NOAA and with other agencies on the drought problem. However, many of the collaborations are ad hoc and could be better developed. How will NOAA develop a more integrated strategy so that we are providing even better drought information services than we do now?

29. The End The End