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YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality

YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality. Prepared by Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D. THE URBAN INSTITUTE Program on Law & Behavior July 1999. The Juvenile Court System Has Been Widely Criticized in Recent Years. Juvenile courts are perceived as weak and ineffective.

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YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality

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  1. YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality Prepared by Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.THE URBAN INSTITUTEProgram on Law & BehaviorJuly 1999

  2. The Juvenile Court System Has Been Widely Criticized in Recent Years • Juvenile courts are perceived as weak and ineffective. • The term “juvenile justice” has almost become a synonym for soft, lenient, and outmoded. • This perception has encouraged lawmakers to make profound changes in juvenile crime policy. • The juvenile justice system is now more formalized and adversarial and far more youth are sent to adult court.

  3. Conventional Wisdom Suggests:Crime policy should focus on juveniles because they are responsible for most of our violent crime problems. Although a common perception,this is wrong, or at least misleading.

  4. Percent Under Age 18 in 1997 Violence is Not Disproportionately a “Juvenile” Problem U.S. Population 26% Total Arrests 19% Violent Index Arrests 17% Arrests for Murder 14% Property Index Arrests 35% Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  5. Policy focuses on juveniles because: • Juveniles are the leading edge of the problem; crime and violence start to emerge during the teen years. • Prevention and early intervention must focus on juveniles. • But, some of the focus is misplaced: • Data analyses can distort the role of juveniles in violence. • It is common to highlight the juvenile crime problem by contrasting it with adult crime. • This masks the fact that young adults (ages 18-23) are violent at a higher rate than juveniles.

  6. Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Juvenile Murder Arrests Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  7. Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Adult Murder Arrests Juvenile Murder Arrests The contrast between juvenile arrests and adult arrests leads us to conclude that juveniles were responsible for the increase in murder arrests from 1984 to 1994. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  8. Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Adult Murder Arrests Juvenile Murder Arrests Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  9. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest But, note what the term “juvenile” means.

  10. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest

  11. Juvenile 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Each State sets the age of juvenile court jurisdiction, usually under 18.Anyone arrested under that age is a juvenile.Those over that age are adults.

  12. “Youth” Juvenile Adult 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Most violent crimes, in fact, are committed by “youth” in theirlate teens and early twenties. But “adults” have widely varying arrest rates.

  13. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest This can be seen by looking at the per capita rate of arrests forViolent Index Crimes by age.

  14. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest

  15. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest

  16. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest

  17. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest

  18. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 Among 13 and 14-year-olds, there were 360 arrests for every 100,000 13 and 14-year-olds in the population in 1997. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  19. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 The rate climbed to nearly 600 arrests per 100,000 among 15-year-olds. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  20. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  21. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  22. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 The rate continued to climb until peaking at age 18, and then started to fall. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  23. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  24. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  25. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  26. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 This “age-crime curve” confirms that the rate of violent crime peaks in the late teen years and early twenties. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  27. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 800 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  28. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 Juvenile 800 Adult 600 400 200 Most of the peak crime years are in the adult category. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  29. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 Juvenile 800 Adult 600 400 200 Combining the high-crime rates of younger adults with the low rates of older adults obscures the fact that violent crime rates are veryhigh among young adults. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  30. Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1997 1,000 Juvenile 800 Adult 600 400 200 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Age at Arrest Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

  31. The effect this would have on policy is clear if we examine how the age-crime curve for murder changed during the crime wave of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

  32. Murder 1980 This was the shape of the age-crime curve for murder as of 1980. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  33. Murder 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  34. Murder 1985 By 1985, not much had changed. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  35. Murder 1985 Sharp increases appearedduring the late 1980s. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  36. Murder 1985 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  37. Murder 1986 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  38. Murder 1987 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  39. Murder 1988 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  40. Murder 1989 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  41. Murder 1990 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  42. Murder 1991 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  43. Murder 1992 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  44. Murder 1993 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  45. Murder By 1994, policymakers and the public were very concerned about youth crime.When analysts compared juvenile and adultmurder rates, the answer seemed clear: 1994 Change in arrest rate for murder: 1980-1994 Juveniles +108% Adults -12% Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  46. Murder This comparison was common in media stories about the problem of juvenile violence. From Crime Time Bomb US News & World Report March 25, 1996 by Ted Gest with Victoria Pope 1994 It seemed as if the juvenile justice system was failing to control crime. Most States reacted by making radical changesin their juvenile justice systems and sendingmore juvenile offenders to criminal court. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  47. Murder 1994 The murder rate subsided between 1995 and 1997. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  48. Murder 1995 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  49. Murder 1996 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

  50. Murder 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

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