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Summary of Stream 2 Diagnostics

Summary of Stream 2 Diagnostics . Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/ StAR November 8, 2010 Miami, FL . ADD Team Members . Co-Leads Ed Rappaport (NHC) and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) NCEP/NHC W. Hogsett, R. Pasch, C. Sisko, J. Franklin NCEP/EMC V. Tallapragada, J. O’Connor, Bob Tuleya, S. Trahan

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Summary of Stream 2 Diagnostics

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  1. Summary of Stream 2 Diagnostics Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/StAR November 8, 2010 Miami, FL

  2. ADD Team Members • Co-Leads • Ed Rappaport (NHC) and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) • NCEP/NHC • W. Hogsett, R. Pasch, C. Sisko, J. Franklin • NCEP/EMC • V. Tallapragada, J. O’Connor, Bob Tuleya, S. Trahan • NWS/OST • N. Surgi • NESDIS and CIRA • J. Knaff, K. Musgrave, B. McNoldy, L. Grasso • OAR/HRD • S. Gopal, R. Rogers, S. Goldenberg , T. Quirno • OAR/ESRL • M. Fiorino, P. McCaslin • DTC and TCMT • L. Nance, B. Brown • NRL • Y. Jin, B. Sampson, A. Schrader • FSU • T. Krishnamurti, M. Biswas

  3. ADD FY10 Milestones • Develop Stream 1.5 concept of operations 6.1.1 • NHC, TCMT, NESDIS • Synthetic satellite imagery 6.2.1 • NESDIS, EMC, HRD and NRL • Develop first HFIP model output products for NHC 6.3.1 • NHC • Develop capability to use aircraft data in model diagnostic routines 6.4.1 • HRD • Diagnostic Studies 6.4.2 • NESDIS, EMC, NHC, HRD, ESRL, NRL, NCAR, SUNYA • ATCF Upgrades for HFIP 6.5.1 • NRL • Establish first generation HFIP data service 6.6.1 • TCMT • Run SHIPS/LGEM off other models besides GFS 6.7.1 • NESDIS, ESRL and NRL • Develop statistical analysis system for assessing source of model errors 6.8.1 • FSU, EMC

  4. ADD Team Diagnostic Formats and Software • NHC Product Tools • Input: GRIB, NetCDF Software: HPLOT, ATCF, N-AWIPS, grads, Fortran • NESDIS/CIRA • Input: GRIB, McIDAS, ASCII Software: Fortran, IDL • HRD Diapost • Input: Binary Software: Fortran, grads, java, GWT • ESRL • Input: GRIB Software: python and grads • EMC • Input: GRIB Software: HPLOT, Fortran, grads • NRL • Input: IEEE Binary Software: Fortran • NCAR/SUNYA • Input: NetCDF Software: Fortran, NCL, Matlab • FSU • Input: ? Software: ?

  5. Classification of Diagnostic Systems • Basic • Can be run after model is completed • Can include comparison with model analyses • e.g.,HWRF post-processing system • Advanced • Needs info every time step • Must run with model • e.g., FSU statistical error source analysis • Data Comparison • Requires data and model input • e.g., comparison with aircraft or satellite • Might be basic or advanced • Close relationship with verification

  6. Example of Basic Diagnostics:Model Inter-comparison of Large-Scale ParametersHWRF, GFDL, COAMPS-TC Track Max Wind Land/Ocean Success Vertical Shear SST 250 hPa T HWRF GFDL COAMPS-TC Ground “truth”: Working best track, GFS analyses, Reynolds SST analyses

  7. Example of Basic Diagnostics: Comparison of Condensate Profiles COAMPS-TC 72-h forecast for Celia: DTG = 2010061912 Control microphysics Schmidt microphysics Thompson microphysics Pressure Inner grid mean condensate mixing ratio Inner grid mean condensate mixing ratio Inner grid mean condensate mixing ratio

  8. Example of Advanced Diagnostic:FSU Error Source Assessment • Start with closed system of full model equations • Regress each term to tendency errors • “Observed” tendency from sequence of verifying analyses • Can identify systematic errors in dynamics and physics Fig 1: Deep convective heating (10-4K/sec) for Hurricane Celia, 2010 (9mn forecast – 18z 22 June) from the HWRF model output (upper panel) and the corresponding error term (10-5K/sec).

  9. Example of Data Comparison Diagnostic: HRD Tangential Wind Cross Sections from Doppler Radar 21:44Z Aug 28 13:40Z Aug 30 21:00Z Aug 29 23:03Z Aug 28 21:23Z Aug 30 22:13Z Aug 29 22:31Z Aug 30 00:44Z Aug 30 09:39Z Aug 29 11:17Z Aug 30 23:33Z Aug 30 11:58Z Aug 29

  10. Example of Data Comparison Diagnostic:HWRF Synthetic – Real GOES ComparisonGOES Channel 3 (Water Vapor) 6 hr Images 0 to 126 hr at 6 hr for Hurricane Earl starting 29 Aug 2010 at 18 UTC

  11. Transitions from Stream 2 to Stream 1 • Adapt stream 2 capabilities to system for operational HWRF • Pre-implementation model tests • Real time monitoring • Tools for NHC Forecasters • Goal for FY11 • Develop stream 1 basic and data comparison diagnostics for EMC

  12. Example output for HWRF Pre-Implementation Tests

  13. Example NHC Diagnostics • NHC has developed a system to compare vortex structure among the models in real time. • Output is posted on internal webpage and products are hard-coded. • Results from the 2010 season have brought to light some important issues with the current models, e.g. the vortex initialization. GFS HWRF GFDL Above: South-north (top) and West-East (bottom) vertical cross sections from the GFS (left), HWRF (middle), and GFDL (right). Vorticity is contoured. Note the differences in the vortex structure among the models.

  14. Schematic of Basic Model Diagnostics System Selection of Sample and Tests Read Model Forecasts Routine Data Comparison: ATCF variables, Synthetic geo imagery, SST, Large-scale variables Intermittent Data Comparison: Various model parameters ATCF A-decks, Tier 2 data, Full model grib fields ATCF B-Decks, GOES imagery, SST, verifying analyses Aircraft data, radar, polar satellite data, in situ , ocean Basic Model Diagnostics Diagnostic Reports

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