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Up to your neck

The scientific components of risk. Up to your neck. Stochastic. The universal grammar of Catastrophe Modeling. 2ndary Modifiers. Exposure. Vulnerability. Hazard. Adjective. Subject. Adjective. Verb (Adverb). Object.

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Up to your neck

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  1. The scientific components of risk Up to your neck

  2. Stochastic The universal grammar of Catastrophe Modeling 2ndary Modifiers Exposure Vulnerability Hazard Adjective Subject Adjective Verb (Adverb) Object The strongearthquakeseriously damagedthe unreinforcedhotel

  3. 100 year loss = $131 million Exceedance Probability (EP) Output 10 8 6 Annual Probability of Exceedence (%) 4 2 Integral is the AAL 0 0 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M 300M Loss Amount

  4. The topography of Risk - Residential Woodframe Loss Cost – Florida 0.7-1.0 0.5-0.7 % AAL 0.3-0.5 0.1-0.3 0.05-0.1 0.00-0.05

  5. Post-event loss amplification - In major Catastrophes loss does not occur in isolation $ Loss FinancialLoss Stochastic Political Context Economic Context Total Event Impact Vulnerability Claiming Hazard

  6. What do proprietary Cat modellers do that is difficult? • Manage teams of top ex-academic expert (egos), from a diverse range of fields, into a single coherent team • Ensure consistency & calibration among all model elements • Model compression and convergence • Capture and output uncertainty • High performance business computing environments • Model maintenance: upgrades, bug fixes, servicing, 24/7 technical and software support • Real time catastrophe response RMS has more than 100 scientist/engineer PhD modelers

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