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Issues:Climate Change

Issues:Climate Change. Walter Mendoza ATREE September 14, 2011. Equity. Modern Environment Movement Silent Spring by Rachel Carson 1962. Modern Environment Movement United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm, Sweden, 1972. Modern Environment Movement

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Issues:Climate Change

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  1. Issues:Climate Change Walter Mendoza ATREE September 14, 2011

  2. Equity

  3. Modern Environment Movement Silent Spring by Rachel Carson 1962

  4. Modern Environment Movement United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm, Sweden, 1972

  5. Modern Environment Movement World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) 1983

  6. United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 Modern Environment Movement Our Common Future 1987 sustainable development

  7. Modern Environment Movement "Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

  8. Total and per capita emissions

  9. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 191 countries have ratified the Convention recognizes that the climate system is a shared resourceit is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to * gather and share information greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices* launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts,* cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries

  10. Basis • Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries

  11. COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995 Common but Differentiated responsibilities Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP) to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by 2000

  12. The Kyoto Protocol It is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12 The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

  13. 20.14 20.24 19.24 16.44 11.88 10.24 9.55 9.65 9.56 9.37 4.37 4.07 2.07 1.94 2.00 1.07 0.28 0.46 0.28 World average 4 tonnes per person per year Can sustain 2 tonnes per person per year 0.11 0.11 India Brazil Kenya China Nepal Japan Russia Guyana Canada Vanuatu Australia Germany Tanzania South Africa New Zealand Bangladesh Netherlands United States United Kingdom

  14. As is GHG dumping

  15. 20.14 20.24 19.24 16.44 11.88 10.24 9.55 9.65 9.56 9.37 4.37 4.07 2.07 1.94 2.00 1.07 0.28 0.46 0.28 Per capita 0.11 0.11 India Brazil Kenya China Nepal Japan Russia Guyana Canada Vanuatu Australia Germany Tanzania South Africa Bangladesh New Zealand Netherlands United States United Kingdom

  16. 20.14 20.24 19.24 16.44 11.88 10.24 9.55 9.65 9.56 9.37 4.37 4.07 2.07 1.94 2.00 1.07 0.28 0.46 0.28 contraction 0.11 0.11 India Brazil Kenya China Nepal Japan Russia Guyana Canada Vanuatu Australia Germany Tanzania South Africa New Zealand Bangladesh Netherlands United States United Kingdom

  17. 20.14 20.24 19.24 16.44 11.88 10.24 9.55 9.65 9.56 9.37 4.37 4.07 2.07 1.94 2.00 1.07 0.28 0.46 0.28 convergence 0.11 0.11 India Brazil Kenya China Nepal Japan Russia Guyana Canada Vanuatu Australia Germany Tanzania South Africa New Zealand Bangladesh Netherlands United States United Kingdom

  18. CDMs The Clean Development Mechanism

  19. CDMs Arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol 1997

  20. CDMs Allows industrialised countries to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries

  21. United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 CDMs supervised by CDM Executive Board (CDM EB) under the guidance of the Conference of the Parties (COP/MOP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

  22. CDMs Should be "supplemental" to domestic actions to reduce emissions

  23. CDMs consent of developing country hosting the project it will contribute to sustainable development

  24. CDMs using methodologies approved by the CDM Executive Board (EB) establish additionality establish a baseline

  25. CDMs Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) carbon credits one metric tonne of CO2e

  26. CDMs validation & verification by Designated Operational Entity (DOE) monitoring

  27. Critics of the CDM • in many cases, the recipients are large, polluting industries • adverse environmental impacts to the communities • Chhattisgarh - Jindal Steel and Power Limited’s notoriously polluting sponge-iron factories • earning enormous amounts of money & environmental credibility with four separate CDM projects http://withoutyourwalls.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/carbon-trade-off/

  28. Hidden issues • Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries • Elephant in the room increased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countries population!

  29. The Discord

  30. The Discord

  31. Equity remains an ongoing struggle

  32. Development Development not to mean growth, but to mean how to ensure that all people have equitable: - access to energy and other natural resources • consumption levels of energy and other natural resources • participation levels in decision making over all issues related to energy and natural resources, in such a manner that the eco-footprint for earth as a whole, and its various geographic regions, do not exceed their bio-capacities.

  33. Technology the answer? • Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050; • Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut • New (zero-fossil) technologies are not competitive or limited • Will not work without changes in consumption. Have to reduce and have to change the way we do business Business as usual will not work. No soft answers will work Not a green ‘party’ but a green ‘revolution’ needed

  34. The Hidden hand The Corporation! It is an entity! It has the rights of an individual But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities

  35. Role of Civil Society today there is a divide: International NGOs vs Third World NGOs Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots

  36. Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a “development threshold”)

  37. Historical Contribution to Carbon Stock Entitlements to Total Carbon Space (1850-2050)? From 1850 – 2009  331 GtC From 1970 – 2009  226 GtC

  38. Carbon Space Entitlements Per Capita Principle – Entitlements proportionate to % of World Population

  39. Carbon Budget for the future 326 GtC  50% probability of exceeding 2 deg C. 207 GtC  25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C.

  40. Actual Carbon Space vs. Entitlement Loss of entitlement can be compensated through technology and financial transfers

  41. Shift of focus from: Implementation Finance Technology and trade Emerging issues: food security Rio + 20: Green Economy

  42. 3 kinds of problems: Protection from third world imports New conditions, standards on ‘aid’ Green economy goals: milestones on biodiversity and conservation Rio + 20: Green Economy

  43. Shift focus to: World Environment Organisation (enviro focus) World Commission on Sus Dev Green Development Fund enviro, econ & social focus) Institutional Framework

  44. Demand – Supply Scenario (Electricity) • Quick addition of low-cost coal essential considering the financial situation of the DISCOMs and to reduce tariffs (e.g. industrial tariffs 50% higher than in US, China) • Urgent attention, structural provisions for reliable supply to poor is required: • can be met at limited C emissions, is more of an Institutional issue (Might need to earmark low cost energy for poor) • Large grid extension underway (RGGVY) and access improving quickly, supply situation getting better.

  45. Development, Energy, and Climate • BAU is impractical and unsustainable. (Land, water, fuel, climate, etc) • Era of cheap energy is over - need to be much more efficient while building infrastructure / industrialization. Relook future type of industrialisation (development paradigm) • Transport (avoid shift and improve) net oil import bill is 4% of GDP, largely in sync with climate and local social and pollution strategies. • More electricity needed, but • Immediate attention to needs of poor • Earnest action for EE (> than gas, nuclear, hydro put together) • Incentivize energy saving devices and disincentivize high consuming energy use. (tariff policy) • Long term planning for greater role of Renewables. Focused effort on reducing RE costs & manufacturing; R&D.

  46. Once upon a time

  47. 1 Climate change2 Biodiversity loss3 Biogeochemical4 Ocean acidification5 Land use6 Freshwater7 Ozone depletion8 Atmospheric aerosols9 Chemical pollution planetary boundaries

  48. He said There is enough for everyone’s NEED but NOT for Everyone’s GREED

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