Game Theory, Internet and the Web A new Science?

1. Game Theory, Internet and the WebAnew Science? Paul G. Spirakis (google: Paul Spirakis) University of Liverpool (with help from C. H. Papadimitriou, Berkeley)

2. Main Goal of Computer Science (1950-2000): To investigate the capabilities and limits of the Computing Model of von Neumann – Turing (and its software) (Math Tools: Logic, Combinatorics, Automata ) • What is the goal of Computer Science for the 21st century?

4. The Internet and the Web • Built, operated and used by a variety of entities with diverse interests. • Not yet understood deeply “The Web is a huge arena of competition and cooperation between many logical entities with selfish interests” (C.H. Papadimitriou) New Tool: Math Foundations of Economics, Game Theory

5. Game Theory Game = Any interaction among rational and logical entities each of which may have different motives and goals. Game Γ = (Ν, {Si}, {ui}) N = Set of “players” Si = Set of pure strategics of player i ui: XSi R = The utility function of player i (Expected Utility Theorem of Von Neumann & Morgenstern)

6. A game is a system of rational and logical entities in interaction • Selfish entities: Each of them has a possibly different utility function (and wants to maximize it) “People are expected utility maximizers” • Such systems are very different from the “usual”

7. Game Theory strategies strategies 3,-2 payoffs Similarly for many players

8. This for that e.g. Prisoner’s dilemma

9. Rational Behaviour • Dominant Strategies (but they do not always exist) • Nash Equilibria (mutual best response) Each player will not benefit if she deviates unilaterally • Mixed Strategies allowed (i.e. prob. distributions on the pure strategies of each player).

10. John Forbes Nash, Jr. (A beautiful mind) Theorem [Nash, 1952] Every finite game has at least one Nash Equilibrium

11. The beauty of Mathematics Discrete Math (Graphs) Sperner Lemma (Combinatorics) Fixpoint Theorem ofBrower (Analyis) Kakutani’s Theorem  Market Equilibria Nash’s Theorem zero sum games duality, linear programming ?  P

12. t source s sink Discrete Mathematics «Any directed graph with indegrees and outdegrees at most 1, if it has a source then it has a sink»

13. Sperner’s Lemma: Any legal coloring of a triangulated polytope contains a trichromatic triangle. Proof: !

14. Sperner  Brower Brower’s Thm:: Any continuous function from a polytope to itself has a fix point. Proof Triangulate the polytope. Color the vertices according to the direction indicated by the function. Sperner  There exist a triangle with “no exit” Now make the triangulation dense The subsequence of the centers of the Sperner triangles converges QED

15. Brower  Nash For each pair of mixed strategies x, y let: (x,y) = (x’, y’), wherex΄ maximizes off1(x’,y) - |x – x’|2, (off1 = expected payoff of player 1) Similarly for y’. Now any Brower fixpoint is a Nash Equilibrium QED

16. Nash  von Neumann If the game is zero – sum (constant sum) them the mutual best responses are the same as a max-min pair (and due to duality, the solution of a Linear Program).

17. The notion of Equilibrium is basic in many Sciences

18. Some Questions • How logical is the probabilistic play? (poker bluffs, tax evasion) • Can we “learn” (or compute) an equilibrium; • What is the best (worst) Equilibrium;

19. Approximate Equilibria • ε-Nash: Each player stays at equilibrium decision, even if she may gain at most “epsilon” by unilaterally deviating “We don’t change our mate for a slightly better” • Can we compute ε-Nash equilibria efficiently? BEST Poly-time result: ε = 0.34 [Tsaknakis, Spirakis, 07] Sub exponential methods (Lipton, Markakis, Mehta, 03) (Tsaknakis, Spirakis, 10) • Still open to go below “1/3”

20. The battlefield • The “system” • The Web • The terrain • Society SOCIAL COST (Function of Social happiness) SC : XCi  R The function measures the social cost, given the choices (strategies) yi of each player i.

21. Examples of Social Cost • Energy spent • Max delay in streets • Political cost for the country / EU given the decisions of the leaders. Altrouist: A player whose utility function “agrees” with the social cost function

22. If God would order everybody how to decide then we would get an Optimal Social Cost, OPT • But, actually, the “system” reaches an equilibrium P • How far is SC(p) from OPT? (Usually OPT is not even an equilibrium!)

23. The Price of Anarchy (PoA) (max over all NE p). [Koutsoupias, Papadimitriou, 1999] Coordination Ratio [Mavronicolas, Spirakis, 2001] [Roughgarden, Tardos, 2001]

24. But also The Price of Stability (PoS) (min over all NE p) [Schulz, Stier Moses, 2003] [Anshelevich et al, 2004] • Lots of results for PoA, PoS for congestion games, network creation games etc.

25. How to Control Anarchy • Mechanisms design • A set of rules and options put by game’s designers. Does not affect the free will of players. But appeals to their selfishess (e.g. payments, punishments, ads). Aims in “moving the game” to “good equilibria” (desirable by the designer) • New challenges in algorithms! • Auctions • Lies and truthfullness • Stackelberg’s games (Leader plays first)

26. Dynamics • How can a Selfish System (e.g. the markets, Society, the Web) approach an Equilibrium? • Dynamics Players interact, learn and do selfish choices, and the “state” of the System changes with time • Many, repeated, concurrent games all the time.

27. The world is not perfect • Players may be illogical and not so rational • Players may have limited information about the game (s), or limited knowledge. • Errors are human / also for Computers (“Trembling Hand”) • Other factors (enemies of the System, “free- riders”, strange behaviour, …)

28. But, fortunately: • Players can learn, adapt, evolve • Biology and “Self-regulation” [Self-stabilization) [Dijkstra] [S. Dolev, E. Schiller] • Equilibria in animal, plants (microbes) communities in antagonism or cooperation • John Maynard Smith (1974) (Evolutionary Games).

29. Yet another Science • Mathematical Ecology (Alfred Lotka, Vito Volterra, 1920) (dynamics of moskitos, also of hunter-prey fish in Adriatic Sea ). • Ancestor of Evolutionary Game Theory • Evolutionary Methods in Economics [Robert Axelrod, 1984]

30. Relevant Math. • Nonlinear dynamical systems • Differential Equations • Attractors, oscillations, Equilibria • Chaotic Behaviour! (and, again, fixpoints!)

31. Dynamics of Selfish Systems • Norms (Contracts, Social Rules) • “Internal” causes for change: • players’ selfish behaviour • learning, adaptation • Externalities • “Final” result (equilibrium, stability, but also complex behaviour, chaos)

32. A New Science • Deep and elegant • Different • Strong interaction with Foundations of CS • Emerges everywhere (Research, Education, funds) (also new Industry: e-commerce, ads, Social Nets …) • A new light in Complexity • Isaac Asimov’s “psychohistory”?

33. MANY THANKS FOR LISTENING TO ME.