Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution

1. Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution Amr M. Mohammed1 Amer Shalaby2 Eric J Miller 3 1: Morrison Hershfield Ltd. 2,3: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto Paper presented at the 2011 GIS in Public Transportation Conference URISA – The Association of GIS Professionals September 15th2011 P-TRANE

2. Overview • Introduction • Bus Network Evolution Model • Phase I: Mississauga Transit • Types of Changes • Phase II: P-TRANE • Results • Conclusions and Recommendations • Current Developments (City of Ottawa: Hospital Link, LRT) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

3. Introduction • Bus operators/agencies Constantly Adjust networks (changes) • Behaviour • Response to: Dynamic of Ridership Changes & Budget Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

4. Introduction • Model captures changes over time: • Predict network shape & functionality • Future Time steps • Aid for developers, Transit&urban planners • Component in urban-transportation demand simulation frameworks (e.g. ILUTE) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

5. Introduction P-TRANE “Changes triggered by socioeconomic & Urban factors (Land-Use) & dictated/Guided by service standards practices” Two-phase • Empirical Study (Multiple regression & simultaneous equations) – USING ArcGIS • Service Standards (P-TRANE) - USING ArcGIS Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

6. Introduction Fits into ILUTE? • Transportation Planning Models • Bring transportation-related components of urban systems into integrated modelling framework Integration Urban Form Transportation Model 2-way interactions Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

7. Introduction: ILUTE Integrated Land-Use, Transportation, Environment (Salvini and Miller, 2005) Household/Person decisions Activity of Objects (Persons/hh/firms/job market) Exogenous Travel Demand Travel Times Emissions Energy Use Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

8. Bus Evolution Model Phase I: Empirical analysis • Supply historical trends • Macroscopic • Mutual effect between Demand & Supply • ‘Demand and supply are recursive&simultaneous’ (e.g. Taylor & Miller 2003, Peng 1997) • Phase II: P-TRANE • GIS of bus network growth • Microscopic (bus line /period/branch detail) • Service Standards Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

9. Phase I:Mississauga Transit • PHASE I • Analysing historical trends of transit supply • Purpose: Understand causes and triggers of growth • Statistical and econometric models Demand? Population? Income? Demographics? Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

10. Phase I:Mississauga Transit Mississauga Connectivity Subway Stations (Western Terminus) Kipling/Islington Busy Downtown Toronto – Business Centre Explosive Growth Employment Centre City of Mississauga Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

11. Phase I: Mississauga Transit • Demographic and socioeconomic variables • ArcGIS (1/4 mile buffer zone) (Local & City wide) • Multiple time steps (1986-2001) (Census Tract + TTS zones data) • Multiple Regression & simultaneous equations • Transit supply → bus frequencies (Dependant variable) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

12. Phase I: Results Cross-sectional models using Multiple Regression

13. Phase I: Results Simultaneous Regression Equations

14. Phase I: Results • Simultaneous Regression Equations: Model Testing • 2001 data(Observed vs. Estimated) • 2-tailed matched pairs, difference not significantly different from zero • Previous model show strong predictive power

15. Transit Evolution Model P - T R A N E Phase II “Prediction Model of Transit Network Evolution” Previously PREMOTRANE Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

16. Phase II: Types of Changes Types of Bus Network Changes P - T R A N E 1- Capital-intensive changes • Political – Large Scale (subway, LRT) – Effects 2 • Exogenous 2- Periodic Service changes • Regular, (medium to small) • Reaction to Changing demands • Budget is exogenous • Extra subsidy? = No new buses into P-TRANE • Modeled in P-TRANE New bus route Route removal Frequency change Re-routing & Extending Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

17. Phase II: Types of Changes P - T R A N E 2- Medium to Small Periodic Service changes Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

18. Phase II: TTC Service Standards • Service Standards: • Guidelines • Service quality & financial performance • Proposals for new service • Rules into P-TRANE • Expert Systems (KB: Service Standards • Rules + Priority Rules) • Frequency, Financial Performance P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

19. Phase II: P-TRANE , Minor changes: Bus Crowding Rule P - T R A N E Financial Performance rule

20. Phase II: PREMOTRANE Implementation: Minor Changes P R E M O T R A N E

21. Implementation: Minor Changes Phase II: P-TRANE P - T R A N E

22. Phase II: P-TRANE,GISMedium ChangesRules P - T R A N E • P-TRANE,GIS : build new routes

23. Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes P R E M O T R A N E

24. Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes P - T R A N E

25. Modelling Procedure (Proposals) new line/extension/adjustment in routing P R E M O T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

26. Modelling Procedure (Proposals) P - T R A N E Line Builder in P-TRANE Apply/add to updated network

27. Transit Evolution Model P-TRANE & ILUTE exchange demand,land-use and supply data for future time steps and are simulated together. P - T R A N E Demand (Ridership) ILUTE Land-use P-TRANE Socio-Economic Data Transit Network (Supply) Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

28. Phase II: P-TRANERelationship with ILUTE P - T R A N E

29. Results (Minor Changes) • Frequencies and Financial performance • Test 2005 network (TTC) • Output: A number of lists of changes in frequency&financially poor lines for 2006. • 97% of actual # changes modelled by P-TRANE actually changed P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE

30. Results Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations - 2002 • TTC made 11 changes - 3 new lines • Don Mills to Scarborough town Centre • Finch East to Don Mills • Victoria Park via consumers road (To Don Mills station) • P-TRANE output: • Don Mills to Ellsemere station (one station south of actual) • Bayview to Finch (but through local streets) • Bessarion to Finch (through local streets) • Spatial comparison • Functionality / Spatially equivalent P - T R A N E

31. Results Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations – 2002 P - T R A N E Actual → ← P-TRANE

32. Conclusions P-TRANE • For the first time, Transit network evolution • Two phase project (empirical & DSS) • P-TRANE – a (GIS) framework • Simulates changes spatially and temporally • Predictive model, describes service standards • Component in ILUTE, • GIS, User-friendly, Promising Results P - T R A N E

33. Conclusions P-TRANE • DSS For Transit Agencies (e.g. TTC, OCTranspo) • Test future policies, alternatives, standards • Simulates Periodic Changes of Service/Feeder Bus Routes Prior to (Capital Intensive) Projects • E.g., New LRT BRT, Subway Stations, P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

34. Current Developments • Ottawa Transit: (LRT & Hospital Link BRT) Effects on feeder bus network; • Testing, validating and updating; • Next Steps • Effects of Labour Unions • Budget Model P - T R A N E Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE

35. Thank you