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After the Waves: A Post-Tsunami Response Analysis for SE Alaska

After the Waves: A Post-Tsunami Response Analysis for SE Alaska. Joel Curtis NWS Forecast Office, Juneau, AK Subarea Committee Meeting January 21, 2015. Tsunami !. Series of Traveling (Gravity) Waves in Water generated by violent vertical displacement of water surface. Occur Worldwide.

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After the Waves: A Post-Tsunami Response Analysis for SE Alaska

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  1. After the Waves:A Post-Tsunami Response Analysis for SE Alaska • Joel Curtis • NWS Forecast Office, Juneau, AK • Subarea Committee Meeting • January 21, 2015

  2. Tsunami ! • Series of Traveling (Gravity) Waves in Water generated by violent vertical displacement of water surface. Occur Worldwide. • Seiche (“say-sh”) – slosh effect, non-traveling • Distance (Teletsunami) > 1000 Km • Local < 1000 Km

  3. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

  4. Solid Mass Moving Liquid • Causes: • Uplift or depression – Plate Tectonics • Landfall and / or submarine landslide • Volcanic – ejecta or collapse • Faults: • Relative movement (or slip) vertical: dip-slip • Slip horizontal: transcurrent or strike-slip • Oblique-slip both strike and dip slip. • (Wikipedia)

  5. strike-slip earthquakes here have produced local landslide tsunamis Dip-slip earthquakes here have produced large Pacific wide tsunamis • (Load 1&2 Here)

  6. Displacement

  7. Evolution of a tsunami as it approaches the coast Images from ‘Tsunami Glossary’, International Tsunami Info Center

  8. Low Frequency / High Impact • We ALL realize that Tsunamis are… • Risk Reduction by Planning, Recurring Training & Testing

  9. DANGER: Force, Runup & Persistence of Flow • Wave Period : typically 10 to 30 minutes, up to an hour • water flow keeps coming & coming & coming & coming…. • (then going & going & going) • (Valdez, AK 1964)

  10. Valdez 1964

  11. Wave Force / Runup / Inundation – Tohoku 2011

  12. Continuing Threat • Several Waves – “new arrivals” • Tide Level - changing! • WAIT FOR THE “ALL CLEAR” cancellation • Example: Makran Tsunami 1945 • First wave set was “noticed” very soon after the early morning quake. No big deal. • The second catistropic wave set arrived approximately 3 HOURS after the quake

  13. Local Tsunami Threat • Quake 20 Seconds OR Difficulty Standing Up: • Don’t Wait Around, Get to Higher Ground!

  14. FORCE • Estimate : 1 meter wave height • Meter cubed = 1000kg = 2205 pounds • Runup current = 10 to 30 mintes!

  15. Physical Impacts • Force Impact • Inundation-Flooding • Debris • Erosion • Slope Failure • Secondary • Fires • Pollution / HAZMAT • (and collisions) • Lituya Bay, 1958

  16. Response Phase • #1 OBTAIN A COMMON OPERATING PICTURE!

  17. So, “All Clear”…Now What? • High Level Event Analysis: • Distance vs. Local Tsunami • Both… (1964 Good Friday) • Impact Scale: Local, Regional, State • Restore Communications • Connectivity disrupted • Begin Ops & Resources Decisions…

  18. Community Level • “ROLL CALL” • #1 Priority! • SAR / EMT • Infrastructure • Homes • Resources • Isolation • Self-sufficiency • Communications • Weather affects all these!

  19. Immediate Challenges • Count: Fatal, Injured, Missing, Safe • Communications at / below sea level –wrecked • Facilities and Roads/Bridges/Docks – wrecked. Airports at sea level ! • Access vs. Debris – SAR, MedEvac, Fire Supression • Fires –especially fuel facilities • HAZMAT releases including sewer

  20. Post Tsunami Fires(14 plants + seafood + avgas) • Ignition – sparks (impact, lines) & electrical • Fuel – petroleum, structures, & misc • Suppression – water lines, apparatus access • HAZMAT Generation

  21. HAZMAT • Fuel (facilities, homes, businesses) • Anhydrous Ammonia (28 + 8 ?) • Sewage / Contaminant (28 + 25) • Sulfuric Acid • Chlorine • Misc: Exposives, sodium cyanide,

  22. Fuel – mainly petroleum • Lines broken • Tanks impacted • Metal – sparks – FIRES • Access impeded • Inundation – spread • Vessels In Transit - Wrecks • Weather Forecasts Essential

  23. Sewage & Water Pollution • What plants and where? • Lines / plumbing severed • Tanks impacted • Access impeded • Inundation & post event runoff • Weather Forecasts Essential • Wastewater 2011 • Fertilizer bags 2011

  24. Anhydrous Ammonia • What plants and where? • Lines / plumbing severed • Piers wrecked • Tanks impacted • Access impeded • Inundation (helps?) • Weather Forecasts Essential

  25. Ammonia vs Tsunami • Evacuation – tsunami, release afterward • Size up – no material data sheet, plant manager Tier II data alone & visual • Post–vapor release phase. Anything left in the tank or lines? • Debris & Access • Water pressure (100 gal per gal product) • Power unavailable

  26. Hard Copies?

  27. Weather Forecasts • SPOT Requests – internet or phone • Call 24 / 7 / 365 : 790-6824 • Forecaster as Technical Specialist at ICP

  28. Emergency Medical:Mass Casualties • Search / Extraction • First Aid • Transport • Triage • Med-Evac • Special Populations • Overwhelmed Facilites • Shelter • Resources • (*Weather!)

  29. Medical Challenges • Blunt / Sharp Trauma • Near Drowning • Burns ( yes, burns! ) • HAZMAT / Decon • Fear / Stress-induced Cardiac / Pulmonary • Sanitation / Infection • Exposure • Loss of Routine Medication / Care • Geriatrics • More…

  30. Summary of Medical Complications • Roll Call • EMT / Fire / First Response ACCESS • Med-Evac Access (Airport, Marine) • Facilities / Utilities wrecked • Mass Sheltering / Sustenance • Re-establish Communications • Weather will be CRITICAL! • Disaster Assistance for a widespread tsunami will be triage!

  31. Recovery Phase • Possible Mass Casualty Long Term Sheltering • Re-establish Logistics • Infrastructure • Contamination & Pollution • Risks During Recovery • Accounting $$$$$$$

  32. Mitigation & Preparedness

  33. Contact • NWS Forecast Office • Juneau • 790-6824 • 24 / 7 / 365 Thank you to Jason Seifert, ADEC! Joel Curtis WCM / IMET 790-6803 (o) 723-2326 (c) Joel.curtis@noaa.gov

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