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New Opportunities Climate Observations & Analysis Program

New Opportunities Climate Observations & Analysis Program. Tom Karl. April 11-13, 2007. New Opportunities for COA. What do we foresee as new opportunities that COA should address in the future What is missing from the current COA program and what activities need more emphasis?

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New Opportunities Climate Observations & Analysis Program

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  1. New OpportunitiesClimate Observations & Analysis Program Tom Karl April 11-13, 2007

  2. New Opportunities for COA • What do we foresee as new opportunities that COA should address in the future • What is missing from the current COA program and what activities need more emphasis? • What future issues may emerge that may present new opportunities for COA? Ideas follows on each to stimulate discussion ……..

  3. What is missing from the current COA program and what activities need more emphasis?

  4. What is missing from the current COA program and what activities need more emphasis?

  5. What may emerge in the future for COA? Change Point / Tipping Point Detection …….. • Ecological & commercial consequences of climate change are now emerging • Numerous others may become known in the future • The consequence may not be gradual and linear changes • Change points / tipping points need to be identified and analyzed Cargo capacity loss (one 737 @ Denver) Mountain Pine Beetle infestation W. NA 2030 • Recent mild winters + abundant host species = prolific development • Very cold temperatures used to keep them in check. • Is there a change point/ tipping point where MPB could spread through the boreal forest of N. America? • Higher temperatures with higher water vapor affects airplane performance …. takeoff length and “climbing” ability • Major loss of cargo capacity • 2.3M lbs in cargo loss transport at Denver (17% of total cargo) expected in 2030

  6. Discussion

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